Jim Rowland

Investor Paradox:
When one sells, another buys and both think they are smart

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

How Bessent justified NOT QE

"This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations."

True, market participants are "significantly" interested in the Treasury "routinely" doing a little Fed QE in 20Y and 30Y

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What the government is doing now is the equivalent of holding a 30-year mortgage at a 3% interest rate and refinancing it into a 4% one-year adjustable-rate mortgage.

In other words, you are replacing longer-term, lower-cost debt with shorter-term, higher-cost debt.

Now apply that to trillions of US dollars.

That is effectively what the US Treasury is being forced to do as long-term yields surge.

Unfortunately, the Treasury is largely playing the hand it has been dealt.

The next phase of the US deficit spending crisis began today.

[New Orleans Saints @Saints]

A look at the kinetic sequence — from the ground up — of how Drew Brees' elite mechanics turned him into a Hall of Fame QB: https://t.co/QZ2WoqZI60

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

I'm being asked why the US broke a decade-plus policy of not interfering with the market-setting of exchange rates.
I suspect the drivers include:
Trade Competitiveness: Washington sees an excessively weak yen as a drag on American trade competitiveness, not just in bilateral trade with Japan but also in third markets across the globe.
Yield Concerns: In past solo interventions, Tokyo has tended to fund its yen purchases by selling US Treasuries, a move that inadvertently pushes bond yields higher and drives up domestic borrowing costs for the American government, companies, and households.
The upside for both countries is clear: This type of joint intervention carries a lot more weight, and markets are paying attention, at least initially.
The catch for the US? Washington has now signed onto a strategy whose ultimate success doesn't rest in its own hands. Instead, as discussed in previous posts, it hinges on a comprehensive policy alignment in Tokyo among the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance, and the Prime Minister’s Office.
#economy #markets #japan #yen #currency #intervention #fx

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The Economist on the U.S. economy’s consistent growth outperformance relative to other advanced countries:
“America’s outperformance began decades ago, but in the 2020s it has become vast. And it is likely to last. The latest IMF forecasts show American growth besting the rest all the way to 2030 and beyond….
Many of America’s advantages are hard to emulate. The country’s continental scale, single language, natural-resource wealth and the fiscal space that comes from issuing the world’s safe asset give it a unique economic advantage over Europe…
But America also shows just how much other rich countries are failing to live up to their economic potential.”
#economy @EconUS @TheEconomist

[Diana Olick @DianaOlick]

#Mortgage rates are rising again, but homebuyers are trickling back https://t.co/Cn6MwsBKjW @MBAMortgage @mortgagenewsmnd #realestate #housingmarket #realestateinvesting

[The Motley Fool @themotleyfool]

Spend less than you make.

That's the most important financial advice.

[The Motley Fool @themotleyfool]

Better to spend money on experiences than on things.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

The United States 🇺🇸 trade deficit shrank dramatically in October to its lowest level since 2009 - WSJ

[Milton Friedman Quotes @MiltonFriedmanW]

Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.”

“If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.”

[Carol Roth @caroljsroth]

The Fed has cut rates from 5.25%–5.50% to 3.50%–3.75%

The 10 year yield was 3.8% at the time of the first cut.

It’s 4.2% today.

Fiscal dominance.

[Jo Jorgensen @JoForLiberty]

The House voted to release the Epstein Files 427-1.
The 1 nay-- @RepClayHiggins.

[Jim Rowland @JimRowland44]

NEW: 2026 Federal Income Tax Brackets & Standard Deduction (Full Breakdown) https://t.co/WYBsQ1i6gD via @YouTube

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

From @politico's Morning Money note (a must -- and enjoyable -- read):
NEC Director, Kevin Hassett, who is shortlisted to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve:
“An independent Fed is very transparent,” he said. “It tells you, this is what we think the economy is going to look like. They tell you why. They show you their models. They encourage debate about, like, what model is working best right now. They look at their errors and talk about why they made them, and do that in front of the public. So the wisdom of crowds can also affect the wisdom of the Fed. And so I think that the Fed is still kind of this thing that’s like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain. And that, you know, is something I think in today's age should change.”
#economy #FederalReserve #markets

[Kelly Phillips Erb @taxgirl]

The IRS has released a draft of the new Schedule 1-A, Additional Deductions. You’ll use it to calculate new deductions for tips, overtime, car interest, and seniors.
Here’s a first look, including some examples and calculations.
https://t.co/QSNJMEVFEG

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

The Sooner, the Better

Based on its annualized total return of 9.7% since 1928, a single $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 at age 20 would leave you with over $650,000 at age 65. If you don’t start until you turn 40, you’d have just $102,000 at age 65.

[Marissa Streit @marissastreit]

The amazing CS Lewis predicted what social media will do to people.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Happy 4th of July!

The older I get, the more I realize how many freedoms were granted to me by simply being born here.

I didn't understand the promise of America when I was younger.

I didn't realize how many people had to give up their lives for me to have the freedom to say what I believe or pursue my own dreams.

This country has given me everything. Every opportunity, every chance to succeed, every moment that has made my life filled with purpose has happened because of the promise of a better world that America consistently strives to live up to.

Incredibly grateful to live in this country & I hope one day I will be able to give back more than I've been able to take.

🇺🇸❤️

[The Motley Fool @themotleyfool]

The S&P 500 has averaged:
• One 10%+ correction per year
• One 20%+ bear market every 6 years
• Yet still delivered positive returns 74% of years

Volatility is the norm. Long-term gains are the reward.