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Trading Matt Duchene with 50% retention would have cost the Nashville Predators $12,000,000 against the cap over the next 3 years.
Instead, they’ve bought him out, which will cost $14,666,668 against over the same 3 year period, plus an additional $1,555,556 each year for 3 years afterwards.
With this in mind, you have to assume that Nashville exhausted their options with all 31 other NHL teams, but could not find a taker for Duchene. The cost to acquire him via trade would have been virtually nothing, which we can safely deduce from the math above, as well as the Johansen for Galchenyuk swap they made earlier. As a reminder, Johansen also carried an $8m AAV and was moved with 50% retained. In fact, Nashville may have even added an asset to get rid of him.
What does this mean? Well, if Nashville���s done their due diligence, it means Duchene isn’t getting anywhere close to $4 million on the open market.
Or will he?
If Matt Duchene signs for say $3.5 million, couldn’t Nashville have added some type of sweetener to a deal with Duchene’s suitor? To the team acquiring Duchene, they just need an asset to make them feel better about the $500k delta over 3 years - but to Nashville, they’d have saved an extra $2.666m spread out across the next 3 years and wiped the entire ~$1.5m cap penalty in each of years 4, 5, and 6. Whether it’s for hockey reasons or financial reasons, Nashville has to get this done. Period.
If Matt Duchene signs for $2.5m, the same logic applies, only the requirement of Nashville’s sweetener would have to have been greater.
I’ll also say, it’s really hard to believe we are talking about teams balking at taking on Matt Duchene for $4m per on the heels of Foligno and Perry signing matching $4m AAV contracts.
Fans are also quick to point to the savings a buyout brings without factoring in the cost of Duchene’s replacement. That’s right - you have to pay a player to take his spot, and add their salary to your calculation of how much the team has saved.
If you replace Duchene with a player at a $3.112 million AAV, you’ve saved $0.00 real dollars on the buyout, extended the cap impact out to 6 years, and probably haven’t matched Duchene’s production.
Duchene’s buyout + a $3 million dollar player would carry a cap hit of $5.5m in year 1, $8.5m in year 2, and $9.5m in year 3 when they could have had Duchene for $8m AAV across all 3 years instead. Who cares about the cap savings in year 1? They don’t plan to be competitive!
Does the league know something about Matt Duchene that we don’t? (please, Twitter, spare me the “I’ve heard he’s not great in the locker room” comments).
Did Nashville do their due diligence?
From my perspective, none of this makes any sense.
@FriedgeHNIC - I know you’re a busy guy, especially this time of year, but I’m begging you to help me out here.
#smashville
#LeafsForever
#FreeAgency
I don’t have many followers, so if you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read, please consider retweeting or sharing with someone else who might enjoy it, too.
Let's have some fun, shall we?
Picture yourself as an NHL GM, armed with the power to reshape a franchise. Leave your biases at the door.
Here's your scenario:
Your current coach has been in charge for the past four seasons. He was once a rising star in your organization, clinching championships at various levels, including a Calder Cup with your AHL affiliate. He's put together some excellent regular seasons, but he hasn't managed to get past the second round of the playoffs. In fact, your entire franchise hasn't been past the second round of the playoffs since 2002, where they lost in the conference finals. Each year, the frustration mounts, and the calls for your coach's dismissal grow louder.
Looking at your roster, your top 5 players are all top-10 draft picks. Four are homegrown talents, one of whom you proudly selected first overall. Your team has drafted incredibly well. The player you didn't draft happens to be the oldest of the five. You've been watching him since he was a junior, where he represented Canada at the WJCs and, a fact many forget, was a teammate of John Carlson on Mark & Dale Hunter's London Knights. Despite the playoff disappointments, your core is considered among the NHL's elite. Pundits and fans alike see your team as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender every year.
Consistency in goal has been a historic issue. A couple seasons back, you moved on from your long-standing number one goalie when a promising backup outperformed him and propelled himself into a starting role, recording career-best numbers with your club. Still, it was not enough. This summer, your current starter's contract is up and you face an important decision about your future in goal.
Style-wise, you're an offensive powerhouse - a top-10 team in terms of goals per game and power play percentage. Yet, you're often criticized for a lack of physicality. You check the numbers - you're a bottom-10 team in hits. Noted.
Building your talent pool was a lengthy process. It took years of "pain". Great players aren't easy to find, and you know that when high-profile names are moved, the return often falls short.
But pressure is mounting - from the fans, the media, everywhere. You're constantly reminded that success in this business is results-driven, and patience is in short supply. Plus, your best player's contract is running out, and his next deal will almost certainly make him the highest paid player in the NHL.
There are lots of decisions to make, but two pressing questions sit atop your to-do list:
1. Will you break apart your star-studded core in pursuit of a more balanced team?
2. Is it time to cut ties with your coach and bring in new leadership?
I don't have a ton of followers, so if you enjoyed reading this, please consider retweeting or tagging someone who might enjoy it, too.
#LeafsForever
Oh, I almost forgot....
If you answered 'yes' to either question, congratulations. You've just dismantled the 2020/2021 Colorado Avalanche the summer before their Stanley Cup winning season.
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