Joel

Hybrid engineering & finance background. Business owner

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@BlackPantherCap Source?

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@mikealfred @GuyTalksFinance Appreciate the response . Two follow ups . Who was your mentor? And, Assuming you have all other traits described , how much experience do you need to actually start winning consistently?

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@mikealfred @GuyTalksFinance How long does it take to build that skill assuming you are financially literacy is very advanced and time spent learning the art of investing is 12 hours per day , 6days per week for example

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@labubu_trader @vix8b How much cash are you holding?

[Joel @JoelHadden]

that is the old way of valuing memory companies….

Historically generational buying opportunities for memory companies have occurred around 1x price to book value. Tops in memory have been marked by 3X book value.

Micron right now for example is trading at 10 X book value which historically is considered super overvalued . Obviously the forward PE of like ~7x is still super attractive if you believe this is structural, which is the whole debate.

Everyone on X is super bullish memory because of the low forward Pe and the belief that this thing is a structural change. Seems to me though that we have very little downside protection at these levels. Im personally exposed roughly 10 to 15% of my portfolio and bought alot around 1k micron and 2 k sndk .

I do believe though that they will continue to post more similar earnings to nvidia at 1/4 the mkt cap. So a 4x upside from here .

Theyre both semiconductor companies at the end of the day so this comparison should be valid. My thesis going in was essentially this. I didnt think i was overpaying

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@EhrmantrautCap_ What do you think an appropriate price to earnings multiple should be and how long do you think it takes the market to apply this multiple? I assume they’ll keep earning this way until 2030 due to supply shortage

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@athuinvests Thanks for the feedback 🙏

[Joel @JoelHadden]

Apparently they have mentioned 20-30% ebit as public targets on their earnings calls. Theres another fund manager on here from florida (johnathon lupton) who seems to think that actually means they hit 30-40% ebit. Wonder if management has a history of over delivering , im new to this and this company. Seems like they will for sure lease the full 5GW and get 11MM /MW minimum. Wild to think . 5x in 5 years is pretty good

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@athuinvests Fair. I have similar positions but more diversified among themes and different weightings . This is my breakdown:

[Joel @JoelHadden]

This is how you should think about nbis:

- ~14 million per MW
- 5GW contracted by 2030
- gives us a top line arr around 70 billion by 2030
- Apply a 25% ebit margin(management has said in calls they expect 20-30%) gets us to 17.5 billion in profit
- add a multiple of 15x on that takes us to 262 billion which is 5x from here roughly.

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@Sandeman52 U think they can achieve 30% ebit and lease 5GW by 2030 (11milllion per MW)? If they do, it would be 250billion dollar company at 15x earnings multiple- 5x from here . 👀

[Joel @JoelHadden]

Wild . I watched mine drop 2 orders of magnitude less than that over the last 3 weeks and had a tough time. First time of my life with sign % of assets in the stock mkt. before it was in rental properties. Totally different ball game . Fully invested rn and port is splitup like this:

Thoughts ? Appreciate any insights 🙏

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@JonahLupton Yea even with 11million per MW gets you to 55 billion ARR. at 20% ebit gets us 11billion profit. At 15x we are at 165 billion EV. Roughly 3 x from here not including any dilution .

Main question is Where are you getting the 20% ebit number from?

[Joel @JoelHadden]

Yea i’m seeing forecast for useful life of around 5 to 6 years. But in reality 5 to 6 year old Nvidia chips are still being used and rented just out , just at lower rental rates.. This definitely would help with effective depreciation cost.

Still wondering if my assumption of 25% ebit margin on top line ARR is reasonable. Thoughts?

[Joel @JoelHadden]

@longinvest32 @Sandeman52 Im quoting ebit margin though because depreciation is a real cost . 25% is conservative? Genuinely curious how people are going about giving nbis a valuation. I think for sure you wanna factor in depreciation and financing cost for the buildout in your model