John Sargent

Nothing I tweet should ever be taken seriously

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@mattyglesias well, they decided to have little national debt, that could soon be a big advantage... not everything is a disaster

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@TheStalwart "waiter, another round of milk for me and my friends"

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@hmeisler like I said, an artisan...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

lots of hawkish talk to come... caution, or time to be greedy? you decide, it's your money...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

Perhaps a parallel could be drawn between GFC and today: subprime mortgages then against more risky debt today... we'll see

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

Evolution West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 1970-2022. Certainly, the evolution of the current WTI is more similar to the GFC than to 1980... Oil being the main engine of inflation, if the solution comes from the supply side, it will come here. The macro context doesn't look like GFC

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

(the IPC '80 data is close to the maximum, and its unemployment the maximum of May '80) the most striking thing is the difference in debt, which leads me to speculate that with less increase and QT they will obtain similar economic effects, even with a current higher productivity

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

How much can rates go up without this getting much worse? how long to leave them up to avoid 'bounce'?
- 1980 inflation: 13.5-- Now 9.1%
- 1980 debt 30% GDP.-- Now 130% GDP
- Unemployment 1980 7.2%-- now 3.6%

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

Comparing is difficult, in case they are comparable. Evaluate it yourself. So much of the solution came by offer (WTI)

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@chigrl maybe it's the best for the planet, but not for the economy, and I think not for the producers either...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@chigrl Well, I'm not an expert in anything, but I think raising prices when demand is down doesn't seem like the right way to keep consumers. However inelastic demand may be, consumers will slip through the cracks like water through fingers...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@Max_Stirn @VitalikButerin @palladiummag that the stock market goes down hurts more those who have more money invested in it...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@chigrl @SantiagoAuFund The Germans, although it may not seem like it now because of the energy issue... they have a lot of influence in the ECB, now they will pressure it to control inflation and they have historically benefited a lot from having a bigger currency in regional and international trade...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@TheStalwart @jerallaire @tracyalloway that's the problem, IMO, that if no one is forcing them to comply with a regulation, there's no way to verify that they really are fully supported. I'll wait for the transcript...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@SantiagoAuFund no, it is not a guarantee, other countries on earth also have vast territories with valuable things in them and their currencies are not the world reserve currency, because there can only be one (I think). I believe that the advantage of the dollar is positional, gained in WWII

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@CNN xenophobia, since there are tribes...

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@elerianm @FT To some degree it makes sense. If the Fed is now data-dependent, you don't have to follow the Fed, you have to follow and forecast the data

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@TheStalwart the market may exaggerate, but I doubt it's wrong. People with better information and whith skin in the game are in it. if with your data it is not helping to understood what it does, it is not the same as being wrong. I have theories about it, but I'd be a millionaire if I knew.

[John Sargent @JohnSargent111]

@AndreasSteno your charts are a little chartist crime scene... which doesn't matter as they prove your point that with charts you can satisfy bulls and bears alike...