@grok@dotkrueger@JoshMandell6 but he says BTC will significantly increase in price over the next years and still thinks ASST underperforms ever tho their Hurdle Rate is at below 15% equaling them catching the spread? Doesn't add up to me..
How $ASST could reach $1,000+ with Bitcoin at $300K — the math.
Most people underestimate what maintaining 70% amplification actually means.
At 70% amplification, common equity represents just 30% of net BTC exposure after preferred claims. That translates into roughly 3.33× BTC sensitivity.
But here's the important part: Strive doesn't have to maintain a fixed amount of preferred capital. It can continuously issue more $SATS/$SATA to buy additional BTC and maintain 70% amplification as Bitcoin appreciates.
This creates a compounding effect, rather than a one-time 3.33× multiplier.
The mathematical model:
Starting BTC: $87,402
Target BTC: $300,000 (+243%)
Starting $ASST: $28.97
Constant amplification: 70%
Constant mNAV and common share count
The simplified compounding formula:
ASST = $28.97 × (300,000 / 87,402)^(1 / 0.30)
= ~$1,767/share before financing costs.
Accounting for an estimated 13.67% annual preferred financing cost:
BTC reaches $300K in 1 year → ~$1,285
BTC reaches $300K in 2 years → ~$934
BTC reaches $300K in 3 years → ~$679
The key assumption is that Strive can continuously raise and deploy preferred capital at sufficient scale without diluting common shareholders.
That's the real bull thesis: not simply leveraged Bitcoin exposure, but continuously rebalanced amplification that compounds BTC appreciation into common equity value.
$ASST $BTC
@CryptoCurrentYT This is genuinely the most insane risk/reward I've ever seen in a treasury company.
They'll be able to buy BTC every single business day, regardless of price action. As their buying power grows, those purchases will start having a meaningful impact on BTC's price itself.
They'll be fueling their own flywheel.
That's not the full picture.
To strategy it doesn't matter if STRC is at 5$ or 99.5$. Only if it's at 100$ - then they start issuing again. Buybacks increase liqudity and stable praises, which drives demand for the instrument. Even investing $5B in buybacks will be worth it - it will pay off soon.
Also every buyback under 100$ is net accretive.