Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder

🏡 Making mortgages less complicated and less expensive at - anonymously shop, compare, and qualify without becoming a sales lead. 💰

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

RIP OFF ALERT 🚨

If your lender has their name on an arena, they are overcharging you ... a lot. 💰

Mortgage rates are determined by the mortgage bond market, not banks or lenders.

The only difference in what each offer, are the fees they charge on top.

@Lend_Zen is fully automated, eliminating the high fees that pay for this 🏟️👇

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Both of these photos were taken at paper companies.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

The Fed raised by 0.25%.
What might surprise you is, mortgage rates could drop.
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In simple terms:
Rate HIKES = lower inflation = higher bond prices = LOWER mortgage rates (and vice versa)
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The war in Iran matters more now, but the rate hike could still help ease inflation.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@mathewlhunt I wouldn’t say it was really a prediction.

In the last two decades has there been a time when markets fully priced in a rate decision and The Fed went rogue?

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Hey real estate agents…
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Send this to the buyer who thinks a Fed hike means it’s time to give up on the #housing market.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@TonyNashNerd

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

If MBS-Treasury spreads looked like 2023, mortgage rates would be setting new multi-decade highs.
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But that tailwind is gone, and mortgage spreads are now worse year-over-year.
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This puts the daily number back into focus, and the recent trend is concerning.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@TiggXXX Which do you think is more efficient - markets or central banks?

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Just imagine if The Fed wakes up on Wednesday and chooses violence.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Wednesday should be fun.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@TiggXXX This is the 2Y ... and all markets are forward looking.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Maybe if they buy more?

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

What breaks first?

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@mathewlhunt The 2Y told them to hike last meeting and Fed Futures are pricing in 88% chance of a hike.

Markets have not only told The Fed what they want, but have given them the all clear.

The move is priced in, which has been The Fed’s playbook ever since the 2013 Taper Tantrum.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

@mathewlhunt The 2Y told them to hike last meeting and Fed Futures are pricing in 88% chance of a hike.

Markets have not only told The Fed what they want, but have given them the all clear.

The move is priced in, which has been The Fed’s playbook ever since the 2013 Taper Tantrum.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Six months ago, mortgage pricing was at its best level in years.
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Today, securing the same rate costs another $21,450 on a $500K loan.
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Amazing what a little war, inflation, and government intervention can accomplish.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Fed Funds Futures are pricing a 72% chance of a 0.25 rate hike next week.
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But is that enough?
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The 2Y thinks not, implying The Fed is behind the curve by 75-bps.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Yesterday’s bond apocalypse made paying for a lower rate harder to justify – you read that correctly.
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Locking eliminates market risk. Paying points creates breakeven risk.
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When bond prices become this stretched, a future refinancing opportunity becomes more plausible.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Amid yesterday's hysteria, bond investors showed exceptionally strong demand for long-term government debt.
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Primary dealers, the firms required to absorb whatever investors do not buy, were left with only 2.2% of the auction, the lowest share on record.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

Do you trust the inflation numbers?
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The last Consumer Price Index showed prices rising just 0.1% in July; Friday reveals if that trend continued.

[Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Expert | Founder @JonKutsmeda]

I had to triple check this was actual footage of Elizabeth Holmes because … wtf.