Jonnie King 🍌👑

₿itcoin Class of 2016 💸 Macro Nerd 🤓 Vinyl Addict 🎧 Sports Card Junkie 🏀 DJ / Music Producer (On Hiatus) 🕺🏽🪩👯‍♀️

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

🎄 FIRST PEAK IS IN

"Don't let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner”.

As I predicted >1.5 years ago, October 6th was the top for ₿itcoin in 2025.

$BTC only reaching 50% of my price target is what really threw me off with my original thesis.

Lesson here: Time > Price

₿ITCOIN CYCLE THESIS:
https://t.co/lEKAPeTeih

One of the most painful things is when your thesis is correct and you do not follow your own rules.

That’s called GREED.

Again, my biggest mistake this cycle, as goes with 99% of traders.

🌲 Having said all that, my Twin Peaks thesis remains in tact as long as we see promising numbers from the ISM PMI in the coming months.

TWIN PEAKS:
https://t.co/fpiQwgk7au

I of course did not expect the Government Shutdown Black Swan Event and the liquidity drain it would have on the economy and risk markets.

If you were one of the few geniuses who sold the pico-top, congrats 👏

If you did not and are wondering what to do now, selling into a complete bloodbath is never a wise idea.

In all prior cycles, after BTC lost the 50WMA with two consecutive closes below, that was the final nail in the coffin for the cycle.

50WMA ANALYSIS:
https://t.co/j3UE4VaxlT

After BTC lost it in the 2017 and 2021 cycles, there was a failed relief rally back to the 50WMA which took ~2-3 months to get to.

This is what I expect to happen, although in early to mid December considering we’ve had the worst Q4 performance in market history these past couple months.

This should setup the long-fabled “Santa Rally” 🎅🏻

MARKET EXIT STRATEGY:
https://t.co/1InOBZEICy

At this time, everyone will think we are going to break ATHs and the 4-year cycle is dead and TA is BS etc, but they’ll be wrong as always.

Depending on what PA does over the next few weeks, the 50WMA should be around the $100k level, so just watch it closely.

This is where I’ll be exiting 50-75% of all positions.

After the 50WMA retest fails, I expect a retest of $70k, which was my original bear market target in Q4 2026 (see BTC cycle thesis above).

This assumes we form a bottom very soon, otherwise we’ll retest $70k first before the 50WMA retest.

If that does not hold, the 200WMA will be the final bear market target.

Right now it’s at $55,5 but that will be lower by the time it gets there (prob $50k), so watch that very closely as well.

LONG LIVE THE 4-YEAR CYCLE, which $SPX and $NDX also follow.
https://t.co/h2de7pYTSX

Make sure to thank all the talking heads and macro gurus who tricked you into thinking otherwise.

Yes, it’s still a 4-year cycle even when we have a second top in April 2026, similar to all the past cycles.

TAKEAWAY: Don’t trade the market you want, trade the market you’re given.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

It’s really weird cause everyone keeps telling me the ₿itcoin 4-year cycle is dead yet Nasdaq and S&P 500 follow nearly the exact same pattern with cycle lows 🤓

It’s almost as-if monetary and fiscal policy creates this boom and bust cycle every 4-years 🤔

Question for the “this time is different people”….

Will $QQQ and $SPX not have similar bear markets as we’ve seen in the past along with $BTC ?

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@pittmanjm ya i mean the IHS is just too easy tho...
i dont think there will be any follow through.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

₿ITCOIN STALLING AT IT’S MOST CRITICAL INFLECTION POINT 🚨

This POI was the local high from May ’26 and support from March ’25.

To make this POI even sweeter, there is confluence here with the 50W EMA, 50W SMA, AND the STH 90W EMA.

$BTC needs at least 2-3 Weekly Closes above this POI accompanied by some more bullish volume in order to confirm the start of the new bull market.

Anything else is just a bull trap…

Which is still my base case.

Remember, the biggest traps are always followed by the biggest dumps.

P.S. TD 9 was printed on the Daily chart.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

Bitcoin Daily Close just above the 200DMA,
just below the 50% Gann.

$BTC had some good buying volume today,
but not enough to change the trend.

If we do not see a very strong follow through these next few days,
this should be the final BULL TRAP before the final leg down.

When you zoom out, this will look like support being flipped as resistance, with a bull trap transition.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@APompliano Braindead QE moonboys are about to come out again huh

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@AlexesNakamoto If these comments are not a vibe check for a local top I don’t know what is.

Thank ya’ll 🫶

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@cryptomanran All theatre for midterms.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

The Treasury buying $14B worth of OTR Bonds over the next few months in a $30T market is equivalent to Trump signing an EO for a ₿itcoin Strategic Reserve.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@kitsunedevs There’s ~30T worth of OTR.

$14B is a drop in the ocean.

This is all theatre for midterms.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

The Treasury buying $14B worth of OTR Bonds over the next few months in a $30T market is equivalent to Trump signing an EO for a ₿itcoin Strategic Reserve.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@CardPurchaser Getting my 57 back in a couple days from PSA 😆

I’ll keep ya updated.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@PaulGoldEagle My whole career is based on proving myself wrong.

Love the added insight here 🧠

https://t.co/Hqn9VDAT5B

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

I spend my days trying to prove my thesis wrong.

Study conviction.

#BuiltDifferent

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@yogaChris2k18 @PaulGoldEagle Exactly.

I’ve said this for the past decade.

But never heard any commentary on it.

Makes total sense now 😎

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

I spend my days trying to prove my thesis wrong.

Study conviction.

#BuiltDifferent

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@cryptomanran rookie narrative ran

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@2ctv totes

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

Messages are flooding in from my normie frens…

You know what that means folks 😆

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

I always tell my friends,
"whenever you text me about a coin, SELL!"

Probably the easiest trading lesson you can learn.

$ALGO

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@BoredApeYC this is a FREE claim for the sling??

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@BreakerCulture Haha hit the nail on the head Ty!

Also add raw cards priced as PSA 9 “because they are mint bro”.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@ailistenerguy Righteous - followed

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

I want to start following and engaging with a lot more of my followers who engage with my content.

If you’re one of them, drop a comment below and I’ll give you a follow back 🤝

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@garyvee Exactly 💯

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@CardPurchaser cardladder for PC type stuff.

Claude in excel for collections - it does all my accounting.

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

I think it’s a combo of both. But most of this comes down to the extreme normality behind gambling in society @garyvee

Young cats see that u can make way more money doing your aforementioned than slaving away as an assistant making $25/hour 9-5 7days / week.

Kids are willing to take the gamble. And I don’t blame them.

You miss 100% of the shots u don’t take.

I was able to retire my wife at 40 and build the dream life for her and my 2 year old daughter cause I took the gamble on myself being able to win in alternative investment markets 🫶

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@ailistenerguy What’s the For You blackout? My posts don’t show in ur feed?

Gotta turn on notis my fren ;)

[Jonnie King 🍌👑 @JonnieKing]

@azurexbt Undefeated indicator 😅