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You could buy 100 shares of $AMZN right now for $20,700.
Or you could buy the $200 call LEAP expiring January 2028 for $5,200. Same 100 shares of exposure. 75% less capital. Nearly two years of runway.
The trade:
Strike: $200
Expiration: January 21, 2028
Premium: ~$52.00 per contract
Breakeven: $252
If $AMZN hits $280, this LEAP returns ~54%
If $AMZN hits $300, this LEAP returns ~92%
If $AMZN hits $350, this LEAP returns ~188%
Buying 100 shares at $207 and watching it hit $350 is a 69% return. The LEAP nearly triples that.
Why I like the setup:
- AWS powering both OpenAI ($138B cloud commitment) and Anthropic ($8B investment)
- $200B capex in 2026, the majority going to AI infrastructure
- Analyst consensus target: $280. Barclays at $300. Wells Fargo at $304.
- Stock is down 20% from its November highs
- 668 days to expiration gives the thesis time to play out
The most I can lose is the $5,200 premium. The upside is multiples of that.
Important: I also own shares of $AMZN. LEAPs are one tool inside my system, not the whole strategy. The core is long-term equity holdings and selling options for income. LEAPs are for selective, high-conviction moments when conditions align.
NFA DYOR
My Q2 2026 watchlist:
$AMZN - AWS powering OpenAI + Anthropic. $200B capex this year. AI infrastructure backbone.
$IREN - $9.7B Microsoft contract ramping. 150K GPUs deploying. Cheapest neocloud.
$NBIS - AI cloud scaling fast. NVIDIA $2B investment. Revenue growing 500%+ YoY.
$ZETA - 18 consecutive beat-and-raises. $1.76B revenue guide. AI marketing leader.
$SOFI - $1B quarterly revenue. CEO buying $1M in stock. Full financial ecosystem.
$ONDS - Defense/drone demand accelerating. 6x revenue growth. $170M+ 2026 target.
$SYNA - Edge AI chips. Core IoT revenue up 53%. New management driving turnaround.
$IBRX - Biotech with FDA catalysts ahead. High risk, high reward.
$OSS - Edge computing for AI at the source. Small but positioned in a massive market.
$TE - Energy storage demand growing with data center and grid buildout.
$MP - Only scaled rare earth mining and processing operation in the Western Hemisphere. Critical supply chain play.
11 names across AI, defense, fintech, biotech, energy, and materials. Not all of them will work. But I believe the winners will more than make up for the losers.
My LEAP system broken down step by step:
Step 1: Build conviction first. Research the company deeply. If you wouldn't own shares for years, don't buy LEAPs on it.
Step 2: Wait for multi-timeframe RSI alignment. Daily oversold. Weekly stabilizing. Don't force entries.
Step 3: Price should be at meaningful support. Long-term support zones, prior consolidation ranges, or key moving averages.
Step 4: Check the IV environment. Low IV means cheaper premiums and a lower breakeven. If IV is elevated, sell puts instead.
Step 5: Confirm liquidity. Tight bid-ask spreads, strong open interest. Wide spreads on expensive LEAP contracts destroy your edge.
Step 6: Buy 360+ days out minimum. Give your thesis time to play out. Holding over one year qualifies for long-term capital gains.
Step 7: Pick your strike based on conviction. ITM for safety. ATM for balance. ~10% OTM for max leverage.
Step 8: Size it properly. No single LEAP should be large enough to damage your portfolio if it goes to zero.
Step 9: Scale out on strong gains to recover initial capital. Let the rest run with reduced risk.
Step 10: Have an exit plan before theta accelerates inside 60 DTE. Roll, sell, or exercise if deep ITM.
I only make a handful of LEAP trades per year. The patience to wait for genuine alignment is what separates a LEAP trade from a gamble.
Important: LEAPs are one tool inside a broader portfolio. I also own shares and sell options on the same names. The core of my system is long-term equity holdings, cash-secured puts, and the wheel. LEAPs are the selective add-on for high-conviction moments.
Comment "LEAP" and I'll send you my free cheat sheet.