Defense bulls, get ready.
Western governments are literally defense's version of AI hyperscaler capex, but the market isn't pricing it in.
Global defense: $3T+ est. for 2027
AI hyperscaler capex: ~$1T est. for 2027
Pentagon asking for $80B in a wartime spending bill on top of $1.5T defense budget this year.
Same endless money machine but a more dependable one. If one government pulls back defense spending, it's not an issue. If one hyperscaler cuts AI capex, the dance floor will get ditched.
The R/R on defense at cheap valuations here looks very compelling for that reason.
I could see capital rotating hard back into your favorite names here soon, especially if institutions feel the need to diversify out of AI.
It definitley feels like you can be rewarded heavily in this market by being contrarian for 3-6 months.
From ATH, $LMT down 24%. $NOC down 32%. $KTOS down 58%. $AVAV down 58%. $AVEX down 54%. $KRKNF down 38%.
$IGV software got called dead on AI agent fears. Down 30% in 4 months. Then up 44% in 2 months when the market realized the short thesis was overblown.
Defense could pull a similar move.
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After landing an epic 21/1 double yesterday,
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Half bet for fun.
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