Pero… ¿estas cosas no se solucionaban acallando a Jon González? ¿Que los bajos salarios, la vivienda desbocada, el hundimiento de la clase media y el déficit contributivo de las pensiones contributivas no eran problema de sus gráficos basados en fuentes oficiales… sino que eran datos reales?
Según fuentes ucranianas, las tropas del 337° Regimiento ruso que ocupan la península de Kinburn se están retirando al este por el colapso de las rutas logísticas y la imposibilidad de reponer las pérdidas provocadas por los drones. Es una zona crucial para amenazar a Odesa
With the kids out of school for summer this mother found a really neat way to help the kids cool off and be creative at the same time. How cool is this?
Swap the phones for newspapers and this is a subway photo from 1920.
A sociologist named Erving Goffman described exactly this in 1963. He called it civil inattention: the learned habit of acknowledging that a stranger exists, then pulling your attention back so you don't intrude on them. A quick glance, then you look away. In a space packed with people you will never see again, looking away is the courtesy.
It's the quiet contract that lets a few hundred strangers share a tight platform without friction. You signal "I see you, you're no threat, I won't bother you." Phones slotted neatly into that ritual. They are the most convincing prop anyone has ever had for performing it.
The newspaper did the same job for a century. Subway photos from the 1920s through the 1970s show entire rows of riders vanished behind broadsheets, every face covered, nobody speaking. Radio got blamed for ending conversation. So did the Walkman. So did the cheap paperback before either of them. Each new object inherited the same eulogy: this is the thing that finally isolated us.
Connection on a subway platform was always rare. Strangers waiting for a train kept to themselves long before anyone had a screen to disappear into. The phone's real footprint is at the dinner table and in the living room, the places where idle attention used to have nowhere to go and now always does.
The behavior in this photo is a hundred years old. The object in everyone's hands is the only part that keeps getting replaced.
La pobreza es relativa a las condiciones de cada sociedad por lo tanto en el estado primitivo realmente nadie era pobre. La naturaleza proveía y se vivía según el desarrollo técnico de esas sociedades.
La recaudación anual del Impuesto de Sucesiones equivale a menos de una semana de gasto en pensiones.
Y la mayor parte del patrimonio que grava es vivienda, un activo ilíquido. Para las familias sin ahorro suficiente, pagarlo significa vender la casa heredada. Una expropiación forzosa encubierta.
Thailand has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. In 2025, the TFR was 0.87, and the preliminary numbers for the first months of 2026 are even lower. The rate is so low that deaths have exceeded births since 2021 and now run 34% higher than births.
Thailand’s fertility collapse has always fascinated me. With a flight to a Bank of Thailand conference in Bangkok ahead of me, I spent some time reviewing the data.
Thailand’s TFR fell below replacement in 1991. That is early. It means completed fertility has been below replacement for at least a full generation. In 1991, Thailand was neither rich nor well-educated. Even today, its income per capita (in PPP, the right measure here) is about Mexico’s level, around 28% of the U.S.
The standard theories for East Asian ultra-low fertility, such as a toxic educational arms race or extreme gender inequality, have little bite here. On the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index 2025, Thailand scored 0.728 and ranked 66th. South Korea scored 0.687 (101st of 146), and Japan 0.666 (118th of 148, last in the G7).
I think Thailand is the clearest example of modernity without high income, and that combination is a recipe for demographic collapse.
To illustrate this point: if Thailand’s TFR remained at its current level for 200 years, the population would decline from 65.8 million in 2025 to 1.51 million in 2225. While this is a hypothetical scenario used to make the argument, not a forecast, it gives a sense of the magnitude of the population change involved unless TFR increases at some point. This is not about closing a few maternity wards or fixing Social Security, but about winding down an entire country.
Does anyone have a better theory? I don’t have enough information on Thai demographics, and I am happy to update my view.
Two caveats. First, I use Thailand’s official data from the National Statistical Office. The UN WPP data (and the databases built on it, such as the World Bank’s) are, as always, way off. Second, the official statistics may undercount births somewhat. Even if they do, the picture changes little.
Total collapse at russia's Sochi airport. Thousands of passengers have been stuck there ever since Friday's drone attack.
What’s the matter? Is your own little war getting in the way of your travel plans? 😏
Il y a dix ans, j'écoutais des podcasts d'un mec qui n'était pas si bête que ça analyser la croissance de Tesla.
Sa conclusion revenait à chaque fois : c'est du délire, ça ne tient pas, vous payez cinquante ans de bénéfices d'avance pour un constructeur automobile.
Son erreur n'était pas dans les chiffres. Elle était dans le mot. Il analysait "un constructeur automobile". Tesla n'a jamais été un constructeur automobile.
Aujourd'hui ils sortent Optimus, et le même genre d'analyste vous expliquera sûrement que c'est absurde de pricer un fabricant de robots humanoïdes à ce niveau là.
On rejoue exactement le même film avec SpaceX.
Le graphe qui tourne en ce moment empile toute l'industrie aérospatiale (GE Aerospace, RTX, Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed, Northrop, Honeywell, Safran, Rolls-Royce) pour arriver péniblement au niveau d'une seule valo, celle de SpaceX, 1 750 milliards de dollars. Et tout le monde crie à la bulle.
Certains analystes la valorisent à moitié moins, à coups de "67 fois le chiffre d'affaires" et de "il faudrait croître 600 fois en dix ans".
C'est exactement la même erreur de méthode qu'avec Tesla. On prend l'état actuel du spatial, on aligne les multiples du présent, et on projette dessus. On ne price jamais ce qui va se construire par dessus.
Une infrastructure ne se price pas sur son présent. Elle se price sur les économies entières qu'elle débloque, et que personne n'arrive à voir au moment où elle arrive.
Le rail n'a pas juste transporté des gens, il a fait naître des villes. Le conteneur n'a pas juste déplacé des caisses, il a créé la mondialisation et des milliers de milliards de valeur que pas un analyste de 1956 n'avait su mettre dans son modèle. Internet n'a pas juste connecté des ordinateurs.
L'accès à l'orbite à coût quasi nul, c'est ce niveau de rupture. Et derrière, il y a tout ce qu'aucun analyste ne met une seule seconde dans son tableur :
Le minage d'astéroïdes et l'exploitation des ressources lunaires. Les data centers en orbite, refroidis gratuitement par le vide et alimentés en solaire permanent.
Les data centers sur la Lune.
Les hôtels orbitaux et lunaires.
Les parcs d'attraction sur la Lune.
Le tourisme spatial de masse.
Les voyages vers Mars.
La préparation de la terraformation de Mars.
Et surtout, les dizaines d'industries qui n'existent pas encore et dont on ne connaît même pas le nom, exactement comme personne ne connaissait le nom de "logistique e-commerce" en 1960.
Voilà ce qui n'est pas dans le prix.
Voilà ce que personne n'ose pricer.
À chaque saut civilisationnel, les mêmes profils sortent la même règle, mesurent le présent, et déclarent l'avenir trop cher.
À chaque fois ils se trompent, dans le même sens, pour la même raison.
Arrêtez de refaire les erreurs du passé.
Russia spent three years flattening Ukrainian cities with glide bombs. Ukraine now has its own.
Kyiv built the Vyrivniuvach "Equaliser" in 17 months, a 500-pound glide bomb designed to strike fortified positions and command posts, The Telegraph. 1/
Apocalyptic bird nest.
A Russian glide bomb knocks down a tree in Donbas. From the shattered branches rolls out a tiny bird’s nest.
Made of drone fiber-optic cable.
Source: Oleg Malchenko
I doubt the barefoot hike. I'm no fan of the Christopher Columbus complex, and I happen to admire elites who develop a country rather than exploit one. So let me explain what is actually going on here.
I did, among others, property across Eastern Europe during my years at Babcock & Brown, and I spent the better part of a decade fighting a court case in Romania against people who tried to defraud my land title. I won. And here is the lesson I paid for: the one thing that separates an investable Eastern Europe from an uninvestable one is European Union membership. It is the guardian of the rule of law in an otherwise wild East, the easiest place in the world to lose your money.
That is the lens through which I read what is happening on Sazan Island.
You see, there was a time when Western elites saw themselves as custodians of institutions, rules and the places they touched. That instinct is fading. What remains too often is the Columbus reflex: arrive by yacht, "discover" land that people already know perfectly well, and treat the rules as obstacles reserved for everyone else. And then have the wisdom to go on camera and brag about it. Jesus. No wonder Albanians are now on the streets in their thousands.
"We were on a friend's boat and stopped for a swim. That's how we found it. We swam to the island. We went on a hike, barefoot all the way up to the top, and we were just captivated."
What she "found" has been there for millions of years, in the Adriatic, not "the Mediterranean." It has a name. Sazan Island sits where the Adriatic meets the Ionian: a former military base, Italian and then Cold War, including a Soviet submarine base, inside a protected national marine park that has been open to the public since 2017 via boat tour from Vlorë. An island crawling with snakes, including the nose-horned viper, Europe's most venomous. So much for the barefoot hike.
Nothing was discovered, and nothing justifies any entitlement. Quite the contrary.
What actually happened is that Jared Kushner set out to cash in on his father-in-law's temporary power as President of the United States. That status means precisely nothing in Switzerland, with its seven centuries of direct democracy and institutions no outsider can buy. But it means everything to a weak man like Albania's prime minister, Edi Rama, cornered at home, courting Washington, and now under criminal investigation for how his government handed this deal away. Kushner understands that asymmetry perfectly. And he wants to exploit it. Period.
In Albania, he can. Albania is chronically bureaucratic, the long tail of its communist heritage, a home-grown Stalinism so absolute it broke even with Moscow and sealed the country off from the world. That legacy is the same one that ran, and still runs at times, from Sarajevo to Tirana, from Bucharest to Belgrade: decades of one-party rule that hollowed out the courts, the press and property itself, and left a vacuum filled by the personalised, strongman power of a connected few. It is the soil in which corruption flourishes, and Albania's greatest vulnerability.
And on that soil, in one of Europe's poorest countries, the island's protected status was suddenly changed in December 2024, in the weeks between Trump's election victory and his inauguration. Just like that. The public-tender rule was bypassed. "Strategic Investor" status went to a Kushner-linked SPV before the inauguration: no business plan, no feasibility study. Wonderful. Because Ivanka "discovered it". Right? Wrong.
A country vulnerability like that can be met in two ways. A responsible investor sticks to the rules and ties his fortunes to the country's long-term development, because that is what makes returns durable in the first place. And that will take a lot of time and upfront investment, with a highly uncertain reward. That's called risk-taking.
A powerful one, on the other hand, willing to bend the rules, as this deal suggests the Trump family is content to do, sees only something to exploit.
The subsequent damage runs far deeper and longer than a few harmless bungalows built without a proper concession. What is happening here is that Kushner is becoming part of the problem that corrodes Albania's path into the European Union. That is the real issue here. Just like the issue when JD Vance travelled to Europe and openly campaigned for illiberal politicians while lecturing Europeans about democracy. Who do these people think they are? Guardians of democracy?
Consider what the Albanian path actually looks like right now. The Balkans, like much of post-communist Europe, are chronically corrupt. But they are also full of people fighting to turn their countries toward something better, and EU accession is the single most powerful tool they have. It forces the one thing that actually develops a country: predictable rules, secure property, contracts that hold, and the credible belief that the same rules apply to everyone.
That belief is what brought the great wave of investment into Poland. Its absence is why Romania and Bulgaria remained under special monitoring for years after accession. The rule of law that eventually held in that Bucharest courtroom, and saved me, exists because membership forced it into being. Brussels learned the lesson. Today enlargement runs on a "fundamentals first" basis.
Which is exactly where Albania stands.
Last month it became only the second candidate after Montenegro to clear those rule-of-law benchmarks, with the EU's own enlargement commissioner describing SPAK, the very prosecutor now investigating this deal, as the country's "most trusted institution." The concession lands squarely on the chapters that decide membership: the judiciary, justice and public procurement. So this is not a side issue to Albania's European future. It is a direct test of it.
And that is why this does not help. It does the opposite. A single family connected to the presidency of the United States showing that the rules bend on demand corrodes the one asset a poor country cannot afford to lose: the belief, hard-won and easily lost, that the rules are real.
Then those same people have the chutzpah to complain about corruption in Eastern Europe and lecture the world about American exceptionalism. It is all so deeply wrong. And make no mistake, it erodes our democracies too, ever so slightly.
The thousands in the streets of Tirana understand all of this instinctively. They are not protesting a resort. They are defending the only thing that gives their country a future and hope: the rule of law applied equally to all.
And make no mistake about who the brave ones are. They are not on a yacht. They are on the street of Tirana and inside SPAK, because in Albania, stepping on the toes of the powerful is done in the knowledge that the danger is real. Confronting entrenched corruption in the Balkans has cost prosecutors, judges and journalists their their lives. That is the issue here, ladies and gentlemen!
I doubt Ivanka loses any sleep over any of this. Her concern is closing the deal while her father remains in office. And on a timeline that tight, a public tender, one they may well have won fairly, becomes an inconvenience rather than a safeguard.
That is the difference between a custodian of capitalism and democracy like Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger and a primitive land-grabber without any moral compass and integrity.
Convertirse en padre mejora la salud mental y cerebral
Este artículo del New York Times está escrito por Darby Saxbe, psicóloga clínica y profesora de la Universidad del Sur de California, que es la autora del libro Dad Brain.
Según Saxbe, convertirse en un padre comprometido trae grandes beneficios para la salud mental y cerebral de los hombres, incluso aunque eso signifique ganar algo de peso, dormir menos y tener menos tiempo libre. Aunque la cultura “manosfera” promueve que los hombres eviten la familia para centrarse solo en sí mismos, los datos muestran lo contrario: la paternidad actúa como un protector natural del cerebro y mejora la calidad de vida a largo plazo.
Entre las ideas más importantes destaca que los cerebros de los padres parecen más jóvenes que los de los hombres sin hijos (hasta 0,7 años más jóvenes según estudios con escáneres cerebrales del UK Biobank), y que los padres muestran mejor conectividad cerebral y un rendimiento cognitivo superior en varias áreas. Además, la paternidad obliga a los hombres a desarrollar empatía, paciencia, habilidades de negociación y vínculos sociales más fuertes (los vínculos débiles o “weak ties” con otras familias), algo especialmente valioso porque los hombres adultos suelen tener más dificultad para hacer nuevos amigos.
La autora también señala que los hombres están dedicando más tiempo a sus hijos que nunca (el tiempo de cuidado se ha cuadruplicado en pocas generaciones), aunque existe una brecha educativa: los padres con estudios universitarios invierten mucho más tiempo que los que no los tienen. Finalmente, Saxbe defiende que las cualidades de un buen padre -fuerza combinada con cuidado de los vulnerables, liderazgo por ejemplo y perseverancia- representan una versión positiva y prosocial de la masculinidad, frente a las visiones más solitarias o tóxicas que promueven algunos influencers.
En resumen, aunque ser padre tiene costes a corto plazo (el famoso cuerpo de padre “dad bod” es real), a medio y largo plazo aporta más propósito, conexiones humanas y un cerebro más sano y resiliente.