joshschuler

15+yrs in markets. Theistic Economist. Investor. Finding Insight in Squiggly Lines.

[Noel Smith @NoelSmith]

Levered equity ETFs are now over $300bn in AUM and control over $750bn in global equities, with daily rebalancing needs for a 1% move in equity indices that are between $12bn (everything moves 1%) and $18bn (SPX moves 1% and everything else moves a beta-adjusted amount). -via MS QDS

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

If I was 20yrs younger and not a ghetto quant

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Kai is growing fast, and we're adding a Junior Quant Trader to the team. Apply through the link below 👇

https://t.co/v1rzybDgXq

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

If your investing approach requires equities to go higher to meet your goals, data like this is likely to give you pause. At least I hope it does. 😉

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Under the surface is where the wild things are. $SPX

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

CBOE DSPX (dispersion) is now the 3rd highest reading of this index ever, second only to Tariffs in Apr 25 and Covid in 2020.

DSPX measures the IV of the SPX to the IV of single stocks and marks the degree to which they differ from each other.

This says people expect single stocks to move a whole lot more that than the index.

You may have caught on that the previous highs were during crisis periods. In both Covid & Tariffs there were very clear winners and losers and that drove volatility expectations.

Here its AI or bust.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

PSA: a 401K or IRA is a risk vehicle. We all do well to remember this….and plan accordingly. 👇

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

This is the moment. As a former Lehman trader I feel it’s the time speak up. We all have that responsibility, enough hubris. We must STOP this. Your 401k is on the line. I know deep down @elonmusk @chamath and @DavidSacks agree — at a $2T valuation, passive investors (the S&P 500, the Nasdaq) deserve better.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

And if you invested the same in $GME you’d have about $40 now. About enough to buy a video game.

[Barchart @Barchart]

If you invested $10,000 in AMC Entertainment $AMC exactly 5 years ago, you would have $26 left today 🚨 Enough for a movie ticket and popcorn 🍿🫂

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

#winning

[Barchart @Barchart]

If you invested $10,000 in AMC Entertainment $AMC exactly 5 years ago, you would have $26 left today 🚨 Enough for a movie ticket and popcorn 🍿🫂

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

This is the way.

[Sean McLaughlin, NLD 📈 @SeanHasOptions]

@HostileCharts …Then you realize there are no rules… and it’s ALL exceptions

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market Shiller PE Ratio on the verge of taking out its Dot Com Bubble all-time high 🚨🤯👀

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

In the chase for investing yield, the world is chasing leverage to get it. Leverage is great until you are levered. Or, you could skip the leverage game and use MLOS (multi-leg options). Service the same desire for yield, still offer capital efficiency, but distinctly different risk profiles.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Happy PCE! May you get great value for your personal expenditures (minus food and energy).

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

…also, with @miiflo_hq you are encouraged to become a process driven investor.

Candidly, it’s not the expectancy of an idea that wins out in the long run, it’s the expectancy of you as an investor. So, unless you are willing to tune that dial….just plop everything in $SPY or $VOO

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Automating trading is great….if you know what to automate. Most people using Public APIs and AI are simply trying to recreate sector ETFs. So, over the long haul, they won’t exceed the benchmark…they might match it.

If you have level 3 options permissions, you can use your @public API with @miiflo_hq and tap into multi-leg spread investments. They are nimble, capital efficient, and far more probable than trying to pick a direction for duration based on some theme.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Automating trading is great….if you know what to automate. Most people using Public APIs and AI are simply trying to recreate sector ETFs. So, over the long haul, they won’t exceed the benchmark…they might match it.

If you have level 3 options permissions, you can use your @public API with @miiflo_hq and tap into multi-leg spread investments. They are nimble, capital efficient, and far more probable than trying to pick a direction for duration based on some theme.

[Public @public]

With the Public API, you can tap into real-time market data and automate your trading. Plus, earn cash rebates on stock & ETF options trades.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

@SeanHasOptions @matt_levine

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Hard reality. Most Americans currently saving for retirement will not have enough, even those saving "early and often" as they were encouraged.

Why not? 6.7% returns is just not enough. The whole game changes at higher yields, but to get higher yields you have to change playbooks. @miiflo_hq is that playbook.

[miiflo @miiflo_hq]

What if you had started on March 16, 2020?
It's the question every investor asks themselves at 2 a.m.
We just built the tool that answers it. Pick any day. Pick any amount. See what would be sitting in your account right now.
Live inside Miiflo. Link in bio.

#investing #personalfinance #miiflo #retirebeforeyoudie

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

If you thought retail traders were unhinged before….just wait until PDT rules change on June 4th.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Either markets are calling a bluff on all of this…or….

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Surging commodity prices will push CPI above 4% YoY in May and US inflation will likely be above 7% annualized for the 2nd quarter unless the war ends soon.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

What if? Then you’d do well to have a more nimble investing playbook. https://t.co/5rxcmPZocU

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto?

Not AI stocks.
Not real estate.

What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with?

Bonds.

200 years of rate cycles say the same thing:
Every peak lasts 56–67 years.
The 1981 top was 14% yields.
The 2020 bottom was 0%.

39 years of falling rates just ended.

What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward?

Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world.
Their entire career happened inside the bull.

The unwind has barely started.
And no one is talking about it.

[joshschuler @joshschuler]

Happy $NVDA earnings day! May all your AI chip dreams come true.

Current market cap of $NVDA is ~5.3T. To put in perspective, if you spent $1MM everyday for the past 10k years….you only get to 3.6T!