Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561

Mortgage Company

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage rates took another hit this morning.

📉 Mortgage pricing: ~0.750% worse
🏦 Prime: 7.00%
📈 10-Year Treasury: 5.22%
🏠 30-year conforming fixed: ~7.45%
Next week is loaded with PCE, GDP, ADP, jobless claims, and the jobs report.
Watch the data, not the predictions.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage pricing is about 0.313% worse this morning.

10-Year Treasury: 5.04%
30-year conventional: ~7.17%
The market is focused on inflation staying higher for longer, energy prices, deficits, and heavy bond issuance.

Goldman Sachs still projects Core PCE to trend lower over the next year—but slowly.

Markets trade on where inflation is headed, not just where it is today.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage market gave back a little ground today after PCE came in hotter than expected.

• PCE: 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected
• Core PCE: 3.3%
• 10-Year: 4.67%
• 30-Year fixed: ~6.74%
One stat to watch: the average rate on outstanding mortgages has risen from ~3.25% to 4.35% over the last 4 years.
Translation: the refinance pool is slowly rebuilding.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Quiet start to the week, but plenty ahead.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence + New Home Sales
Wednesday: Q2 GDP + PCE inflation
Friday: Fed Chair Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole
Markets are pricing roughly a 40% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike in September. I think that’s too high.
Prime: 6.75%
10-Year: 4.70%
30-Year fixed: ~6.77%

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Biggest rate story today isn’t jobless claims.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to double purchases of 10–30 year Treasuries from Sept. 9–Nov. 4, aiming to push long-term yields lower.

That matters for mortgages.

10-Year: 4.69%
Prime: 6.75%
Worth watching closely.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Retail Sales fell 0.6% in July vs. +0.1% expected, and Consumer Sentiment dropped to 51.0.

Normally, that would help mortgage rates. Not today.

Inflation concerns and uncertainty around Iran are keeping pressure on bonds.

📈 10-Year: 4.67%
🏦 Prime: 6.75%
🏠 30-Yr Conventional: ~6.69%
The economy is showing signs of slowing, but inflation is still running the show.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

July inflation came in right on target this morning:

📊 CPI: +3.4% YoY
📊 Core CPI: +2.5% YoY
📉 10-Year Treasury: 4.67%
🏦 Prime Rate: 6.75%
🏠 30-Year Conventional: ~6.79%
Markets are mostly unchanged following the report.
Next up: PPI and Nonfarm Payrolls on Thursday.
For mortgage rates, the inflation data was expected. Now we wait for the next piece of the puzzle.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Here’s a tighter X/Twitter version:

🏠 Mortgage Market Update:

Existing Home Sales came in slightly above expectations at 4.06M, but below June.

Now the focus shifts to inflation:

📊 Wed: CPI — expected +3.4% YoY
📊 Thurs: PPI — expected +4.9% YoY
💼 Nonfarm Payrolls also Thursday
Rates remain elevated:
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.68%
• 30-Year Conventional: ~6.76%
• Prime Rate: 6.75%

Inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target.

Big week ahead for mortgage rates. 👀

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage pricing is ~0.156% worse this morning.

Big week ahead for rates:

🏠 Tues: Existing Home Sales
📊 Wed: CPI
📊 Thurs: PPI
🏦 Prime: 6.75%
📈 10-Year: 4.69%
CPI is the one to watch. Markets expect inflation to cool to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%.
Good luck out there today. Hope this helps.

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage rates are improving this morning (+0.188%), but all eyes are on the Fed.

Markets are getting a relief rally as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, but Wednesday's FOMC decision could quickly change the outlook.

📈 36% chance of a rate hike this week.
📊 65% chance by year-end.
#MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Economy

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

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[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage market update 📈

Mortgage pricing improved by +0.188% today.

🏗️ Housing Starts beat expectations, but the gain came from multifamily construction while single-family starts slipped.

📉 Markets are also pricing in a lower chance of a Fed rate hike on July 29.

Still, large federal deficits and heavy corporate borrowing continue to keep long-term rates elevated.

Current snapshot:
• Prime Rate: 6.75%
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.55%
The bond market—not just the Fed—continues to drive mortgage rates.
#Mortgage #RealEstate #HousingMarket #InterestRates #Economy

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage pricing is slightly worse this morning (-0.125%).

Key takeaways:
• Jobless Claims: 208K (better than expected)
• Retail Sales: +0.2% (slightly soft)
• Pending Home Sales: -5.4% 🚨 (much weaker than expected)
Yesterday's PPI decline was encouraging, but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. Markets now turn to tomorrow's Housing Starts and Building Permits.
10Y Treasury: 4.59% | Prime: 6.75%
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Inflation cooled for the 2nd straight day. 📉PPI came in at 5.5% vs. 6.2% expected, following yesterday's softer CPI report. Mortgage pricing improved another +0.094% this morning. Good news? Yes.
Mission accomplished? Not yet. Inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target, so rate hikes remain on the table. The next few inflation reports may matter more than today's. #Mortgage #RealEstate #Fed #Inflation

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

📈 Mortgage pricing improved by +0.250% this morning after a surprisingly soft inflation report.• CPI: 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.8% expected)
• Core CPI: 2.6% YoY (vs. 2.9% expected). Markets liked the news, but inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. All eyes now turn to tomorrow's PPI report and the FOMC meeting in two weeks. 10-Year Treasury: 4.57% | Prime Rate: 6.75% #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Inflation #Fed #RealEstate

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage pricing is worse by 0.250% this morning. 📉
No major economic data today, but next week brings CPI (Tue) and PPI (Wed). Inflation will be back in focus.Refi opportunity: The average outstanding mortgage rate is nearing 4.5%. .10Y: 4.56% | Prime: 6.75% | 30yr Conv: ~6.65% #Mortgage #RealEstate #InterestRates

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Mortgage pricing improved about +0.125% this morning.

The bigger story?

Yesterday's FOMC minutes were the most hawkish since 2022.

The Fed made it clear: if inflation stays elevated, another rate hike before year-end is still on the table.

• Jobless Claims: 215K (as expected)
• Prime Rate: 6.75%
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.57%
Markets don't just react to the data. They react to how the Fed talks about the data. #MortgageRates #Fed #HousingMarket

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

Inflation is starting to feel like that relative who says they're leaving after Thanksgiving dinner... then asks for another slice of pie 3 hours later. 🥧📈

The NY Fed says consumers still expect inflation at:
• 1-Year: 3.7%
• 3-Year: 3.3%
• 5-Year: 3.0%
Expectations matter because they influence spending, pricing, wages, and ultimately Fed policy.
Today: Mortgage pricing is -0.313%, and all eyes are on the Fed minutes at 2 PM. #Mortgage #Inflation #Fed #Housing

[Jon Overfelt NMLS 118381 ASMC NMLS 40561 @JoverfeltASMC]

If you're in the mortgage business, this chart deserves 30 seconds of your attention.

Jobs came in at 57K vs. 110K expected.

Mortgage pricing is flat today, but this is another signal the market will be watching closely.

Small changes in economic data often lead to big conversations about where rates go next.

#Mortgage #HousingMarket #Economy #LoanOfficer