@JonahLupton@stockedgeN Just look at the ALAB & AMZN warrant deal. $6.5 B in cumulative purchases from ALAB for them to vest, I think by 2033 but should be much sooner given the scale of the Trainium deployment. I see $15 eps power by 2029.
@JonahLupton@SaiseiInvesting@joedab12 Haven’t looked at it. Seems extremely hyped. But I pitched LITE, MTSI, and IOT at Boston roundtable weeks ago w you. Good crew so will take a look.
Hey Jonah. I’ll go with Zoom ($ZM).
Mid single digit grower, have sustained and recently increased market share versus Meets, 41% Ebit margin, and over $7b in cash on B/S.
Own roughly 1 percent of Anthropic, valued over $7b.
16x eps and accounting for cash on balance sheet, 12x EV/FCF.
Should see a rerating as market perception changes to appreciate stable growth.
@GavinSBaker@atelicinvest And little mention in replies on valuations today versus then. Tech overall is cheap on earnings and FCF per share ve not only 1998-2001 periods, but also versus the last decade.
@JonahLupton $MTSI & $SMTC are other less discovered ideas Jonah. Same church, different pew.
I’ve owned LITE for a while but revision factor well known. Still long.
@KawzInvests Thanks. Will take a look. Take a look at MACOM Tech (MTSI) for underfollowed optical winner. I pitched it at that dinner. Photodectors/amplifiers. Datacenter growth of 60% in 2026, will soon be close to 50% of sales.
@mathlonning@JonahLupton @KennyCh74009091 Thanks. I worked at Fidelity in the late 1990’s and Will Danoff, manager of the Contra fund used to say: “A stock doesn’t know you own it.” Aka, don’t fall for confirmation bias and defend the thesis for thesis sake.
It is ok to walk away and track for a while.
Thanks
@JonahLupton @KennyCh74009091 @mathlonning 100 percent agree. Don’t question their investments longer term. But returns dropping the next few quarters, timing matters. That’s all.
I hear you Jonah, I ama former shareholder. But the Amazon analogy very different, as losses peaked early, and then slowly came down over years and then profitability. W TMDX, profits peaked pre plane fleet, or at least close, and now coming down due to the new category/regional investments.
Just think there is a timing mismatch. Sort of like a farmer knowing when to plant seeds.
Too early in my opinion but appreciate the insights.
Love ALAB here. Check out warrant documentation w Amazon and minimum sales levels.