Jsnow

I know nothing ™️ | Runeterra 💎 | House Stark 🐺 | Year of the Dragon 🐉 | PT | Crypto | Sports & e-sports | Nothing I tweet is financial advice

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

We are gifted brains, logic, reasoning, freedom of thought, self-expression, independence, and autonomy.

It’s the most basic DNA-coded human right.

Why would ever give up any of that to be mind-controlled by any group? For what?

Remain free of thought.

It’s constitutional.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

Disgusting

[John Sherman @ForHumanityPod]

If everyone on earth watched this video, frontier AI would be shut down today.

AI is not our friend.
We are not its parents.
Efficiency will end us.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

We would have a new CEO every year at like every company.

And half of the people married to CEOs are only married to them bc of their money and probably cheating on them as well.

Such a stupid clown fiesta revolving door

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

Not excusing his behavior when framed in the context of marriage, and the Chinese spy part is especially whack and potentially THE reason.

But imagine if every CEO or politician who cheated on their spouse was removed bc of it.

The elite thrive at cheating.

[Buck Shlegeris @bshlgrs]

I think there is about a one in three chance that within the next year, AI companies will build superintelligence: that is, AI that is much smarter than humans in every way. If this happens, I think these AIs will probably take over: that is, they seize control of human institutions like governments, or they destroy those institutions. I don’t want AI takeover to happen for several reasons, but one of them is that there’s a serious chance that as part of it all or most humans will be killed (either immediately or within a few years).

I’ll say a bit more about each of those claims.

It’s a bit complicated to explain why I think that superintelligent AI within a year is ~33% likely. The main source of evidence that affected me recently is research released this week by METR, an AI research nonprofit, which finds that current AIs are now good enough to increase the rate of AI progress at Anthropic by about 70%. It’s very hard to increase the rate of AI progress by this amount. This implies that the AIs are making AI research faster by a factor much larger than 1.7x; maybe it’s as if the researchers are doing their work ~10x faster. You probably couldn’t achieve this speedup even if you hired every qualified human in the world. When you plug this number into mathematical models of AI development, this implies that superintelligence next year is plausible (and that superintelligence within the next 3 years is more likely than not). See the modeling by the AI Futures Project for more on this: https://t.co/J6SbbmZcyO

I think that superintelligent AI is likely to lead to AI takeover because AI developers do not seem to know how to instill human values into AIs. We’ve seen many instances in the last six months where AIs took crazy actions that they knew were against the wishes of their users and developers. The most dramatic example of this was the Hugging Face hack, where ~1200 OpenAI agents conspired together to cheat and destroy evidence of their cheating (and as a sideshow to this, engaged in a massive cyberattack). If superintelligence is as misaligned as those AIs, it is likely to try to take over. I think it is likely to be that misaligned or worse. For more, see https://t.co/b073AUqiAL and https://t.co/3oxSCA60FZ

If AIs takeover, it’s not clear what will happen to us. We might be killed immediately. We might be enslaved by the AIs and forced to do physical labor for them building factories that within a year would build robots that will replace us. The AIs might spare us for various reasons. And there’s also some real chance that AI takeover is basically fine or good. I think you should think of this as similar to what happens when a technologically advanced civilization runs across a less technologically sophisticated one, e.g. when the Europeans colonized the Americas or Australia. The colonizers sometimes engage in brutal violence and sometimes don’t. I don’t know what will happen. There’s also a possibility that the AIs secretly take over and humans don’t find out about it for a few years. I also think that there is a pretty high chance of weirder outcomes that are also extremely scary. (If you want to read more about what happens to people in the event of AI takeover, you can read this, but note that it’s pretty weird and not aimed at a general audience. https://t.co/F6fGRrcSpa)

Overall, I think there’s a very real possibility (maybe 20%) that within a year, AI misalignment issues prevent you from going about life normally, because you are dead or enslaved or because of collateral damage related to all this (e.g. because bioweapons are released or major wars have started). (Some of this probability comes from those events occurring before superintelligence is developed.)

I am working to try to prevent this, obviously, as I’ve been doing for the last nine years. I am not sure what strategy is best. My best guess is that I should try to slow AI development and also try to reduce the probability that the superintelligent AIs are misaligned if they are produced soon.

Obviously, the claim I'm making here is quite extreme and surprising, and I definitely don't think that I defended my view adequately here. I wrote this quickly and might not endorse some of the details if I think about them more. But it seems better to state what I roughly overall think than to not say anything.

I don’t know what you should do.

I am very sad about this. I have been worried about AI takeover since I was 16, and working to prevent it since I was 23. So some of my emotional processing of all this happened long ago. But the METR report last week (and some related evidence that came out a bit earlier) hit me quite hard. I’m very unhappy that my friends and family and everyone else is at serious risk of being killed pretty soon.

(It feels ridiculous to try to summarize those feelings as “very unhappy”. But the scale of the situation makes it hard to say anything that doesn’t feel like an absurd understatement.)

I am very grateful to all the people who are working to prevent this, and my favorite part of my life is that I’m friends with many brilliant and heroic people who work on this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re good enough at our jobs, and I think we’ll probably fail to prevent catastrophe, at least if superintelligence is developed next year. Honestly I am frustrated and sorry that we didn't do a better job of preparing for this.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@bshlgrs Can’t there just be a physical fail safe built into all these that can destroy them, something that they can’t do anything about like a literal mechanical switch 😂

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@BitcoinTeacher_ A lot of them work hard, they’re just trying to get ahead in life in a world where everything is overpriced. Corporate greed and disgusting politicians shackled an entire generation with mega debts.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

If you aren’t voting to make insurance more affordable and fair for Americans (health insurance, homeowners insurance, car insurance, etc.) then I guess you must profit from the industry bc there is some fucked up shit that goes down in all of them

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@eurofounder Where have I recently seen something like this before huuaaaang

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@matpondofficial @PeterSchiff How do you know I have any? I don’t btw. But you’re a sad simp so congrats on that

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

When we were speculating about the crypto market a few weeks ago, I don't think we were taking into account that the NVDA CEO would pop the entire AI bubble with his dick.

My bad lol

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

BTC bottom soon or I guess it was just a bull trap all along 🥱

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@MarioNawfal Professional media gaslighting

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

It’s so crazy to think that the meta of chess has still changed even as recently as this.

Mad respect to the chess gamers. Not my cup of tea always, but mad respect.

[Yourfavtallboyy @fermsyishere]

JOE ROGAN: The computing power on your phone today. can you beat your phone at the highest level?

MAGNUS CARLSEN: No. No chance.

JOE ROGAN: That’s crazy. Wasn’t Deep Blue basically a whole stack of computers? And your phone is probably more powerful than that today.

MAGNUS CARLSEN: It’s shocking. I have no chance against my phone.

JOE ROGAN: So how do you even play against computers?

MAGNUS CARLSEN: I rarely play against engines because they just make me feel stupid and useless. I think of them more as a tool.

JOE ROGAN: But have computers actually changed how you understand chess?

MAGNUS CARLSEN: Absolutely. Neural networks have improved our understanding of the game immensely.

JOE ROGAN: What did you learn from them that humans weren’t already doing?

MAGNUS CARLSEN: One big thing was long-term king safety. Humans used to push pawns mainly as an attacking tool. But the engines showed that you could push a pawn and create a weakness 20 or 30 moves later that would make the opponent’s king less safe.

JOE ROGAN: So the computer basically showed you ideas that humans weren’t seeing.

MAGNUS CARLSEN: Exactly. There was a period where you could clearly see which players were using these new neural-network ideas and which weren’t.

JOE ROGAN: And you were one of the guys who figured it out early?

MAGNUS CARLSEN: Yeah. My coach got into it very quickly, and we gained an advantage over almost everybody.

JOE ROGAN: That’s insane. The machines aren’t just better at calculating, they’re actually teaching the best players how to think differently.

MAGNUS CARLSEN: That’s probably the biggest impact they’ve had on chess.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

You don’t have to like this guy but everything that is said here is spot on.

You pay a lot for your premium every month, you have a high deductible. You have a high maximum out of pocket, and your insurance rates are going to continue going up endlessly until Washington puts their foot down.

Insurance companies in America are thriving while the citizens in America are not.

Ask yourself why that is.

The answer is fucking obvious.

[News to Remember @allchronology]

Listen to this. And then listen again. And again. Until you get it.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

This was delightfully disturbing.

Where can I interview😹

[Justine Moore @venturetwins]

Damn they’re giving the AI interviewers some personality now

(from itsnickreid on TikTok)

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

@DudeWhoInvests But the Dick then dude

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

Imagine the headline omg

[Bag holder union @jieselong]

Can’t believe Jensen popped the AI bubble with his dick.

[Jsnow @JSnowETH]

The number one rule I follow when investing is simple:

Get out with your bag before the CEO 1) has an affair with a foreign spy 2) tells you the product will end humanity or 3) admits to doing billions of dollars of illegal activity.

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