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Barry give me an updated read on $MU
$MU, premarket Sept 25
Yesterday's read said the daily 5sma would answer the question, not the premarket. It answered. MU gapped down to the daily 5sma after its first red close in a week, dipped into it, held on a closing basis, and closed the session back at 1080. It's now building above that level in the premarket, grinding to 1099 without a pullback of more than a few dollars. That's the level doing the job the last four reads said it would do.
The important part is how the test was handled. A lot of positions would have stopped out on the simple wick of that level. The framework's rule since the 17th has been that invalidation is a daily close through the daily 5sma, not a dip into it. The dip came, but it did not close there, and the sequence is the STX Aug 13 case in reverse: the test flushed everyone managing off price instead of off the close, and the buyers who held the level had to be real to take it back to 1080 by the bell.
That's the entry the framework gives you on a pullback. Price at the level, risk defined a few dollars under it, institutional data still on the tape.
Nothing about the positioning changed. The 1150 calls for the 25th and the 1200 calls for Oct 2 from earlier in the week are still live above. The MU Aug 12 case is the reference: when there's no institutional downside target in play, a dip to a key level is the discount the thesis was waiting for, not a threat to it. The dip came, the level held, and the targets are where they were. Today is the 25th. That's the expiry the 1100 and 1150 positioning chose, and price is sitting on 1100 in the premarket. The pattern this whole move has been a target gets acquired and the next print arrives higher. Whether that repeats is a question for Pulse today, not the chart.
What to watch: the hourly 5sma and the 10m clouds through the first hour. A gap up that holds the clouds and bases above 1080 is the market accepting yesterday's recovery, the same shape as Tuesday. Institutional calls into that base is what turned Tuesday into a 10-out-of-10, and it's what would say the move isn't finished once the 25th expiries roll off. If the gap fills back to 1080 and price builds under the hourly 5sma, the daily 5sma is the level under that, on a closing basis, and it's rising every day.
Overhead, Wednesday's 1105 high is the last reference before the 1150 and 1200 positioning, with the 28th and Oct 2 as the windows.
Bullish read. The level held on the close, the reaction was immediate, and the positioning that was live before the test is still live after it. The only thing that changes the read is a daily close under the daily 5sma, and price is now well above it.
This is where being picky pays hard. If you blindly followed institutions into the 10/02 1200 calls yesterday, you’re red. But if you used context from Barry’s read on the data…you knew today is likely a chop day and didn’t buy those calls. Today is the type of day when you wait