Juan Sebastián López Mejía

Equipo @Soberania_Col #ColombiaSoberana
Profesor universitario
💪🏻🇨🇴 Escribo los sábados en Vanguardia

[Juan Sebastián López Mejía @JuanSLopezM]

¿Qué oculta el canje de deuda con el FMI?

El gobierno cambió deuda al 3% por deuda al 13% y 14%... ¿qué hay detrás de esto?
La columna de esta semana es sobre cómo el gobierno de @petrogustavo es el que más ha enriquecido a los inversores de la deuda 👇🏻 https://t.co/EvbKgovbtN

[Julián Macías Tovar @JulianMaciasT]

Cuentas israelís difunden masivamente una imagen hecha por IA de manifestantes franceses dejando desnudos a ancianos. La imagen incluso fue difundida por la cuenta oficial de la policía francesa que ya la borró. En España lo difundió entorno de VOX.
HILO
https://t.co/Uu6BPoHpRI

[Laura Ardila Arrieta @Laura_Ardila_A]

Hay examigos (Oso Yogui), examantes (Aída Merlano), excontratistas (Enrique Guzmán Chams) de Álex Char que coinciden asegurando que pide coimas a cambio de negocios públicos. Innumerables investigaciones que prueban la concentración de contratos y compra de votos de su clan.
Pero jamás veremos un reclamo así al alcalde de Barranquilla por parte de @ABDELAESPRIELLA.
¿Por qué?
Porque el ruido de corrupción que molesta al presidente es el de quienes no son sus amigos. El de quienes no cuesta mucho insultar.
Se llama hipocresía y show.
Y ningún medio serio debería prestarse para difundirlo sin el contexto para entenderlo.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Pretty funny to see everyone blame this (rightly condemned, to be clear) on whatever their political bogeyman is: I've just seen people say that this is because of, take your pick, "communism," "Islamism," "third worldism," "Russia," and "China".

As if France needed any outside help to riot... Maybe some people need to brush up on our history, or read Victor Hugo's "Les Misérables"...

This isn't to romanticize the rioters in the least. A reminder that in Les Misérables there's the figure of Thénardier, a horrendous scoundrel who exploits the chaos around him, robbing corpses and fleecing anyone he can.

Every chaotic moment in French history has its share of Thénardiers, and this one is no exception.

It's just too easy, and actually useful to those in power, to blame this on outside forces. At the end of the day, this anger was made in France, is happening in France, and can only be solved in France.

And, as painful as it is to hear, if one studies history, this is pretty much exactly what's expected at the stage France is at.

People have studied this. Whether you take Ray Dalio’s six-stage cycle theory, Peter Turchin’s "elite overproduction" thesis or the Chinese dynastic cycle framework, they all come to the same conclusion: when debt piles up, public services crumble and those in power become incapable, the streets eventually explode.

In fact it's almost eerie how France ticks almost every box of most cycle theories:
- Fiscal distress (debt is 119% of GDP and we now pay more to borrow than Italy or Greece),
- Crumbling public services: a reminder that these protests (now turning into riots) started with high school students protesting over the state of education
- Political paralysis and a legitimacy crisis (Macron has an insane 82% disapproval rate, he's definitely lost the Mandate of Heaven...)
- Popular immiseration with a record poverty rate at 15.4% and a median wage at only €2,190 net per month for a full-time private sector employee (you can't even afford to rent a decent flat in any major French city with this)

"Third worldism" or "Islamism" isn't the cause of any of this: French governments didn't borrow like there's no tomorrow (the last balanced budget dates back to 1974!) because the "Muslim Brotherhood" told them to, and it wasn’t Putin or Xi who left French classrooms without teachers...

Sadly the reactions - scapegoating - are ALSO typical of this stage of the cycle: Dalio lists among the classic markers of Stage 5 the emergence of "scapegoat classes who are commonly believed to be the source of the problems" (https://t.co/eZNSyIq91x), alongside a "loss of truth in the public domain," with people more interested in hunting for culprits than looking for solutions.

So what is the solution? Well, the way the Chinese dealt with it was basically a reset - regime-changing themselves with a new dynasty claiming the Mandate of Heaven, usually after decades of rebellion and war. Not exactly a hopeful prospect...

There is also the exception where a dynasty managed what the Chinese call a 中兴 (zhōngxīng, "restoration"): profound reform from within before the whole house came down. It succeeded a few times (e.g. the Tongzhi restoration during the Qing dynasty) but usually could only buy a few more decades, rarely more.

In 1945, the writer Huang Yanpei famously asked Mao how to break free of the cycle (https://t.co/bMOcrM6G6c), framing it in those terms: "People are careful and hard-working at first, for bold measures are the only possible ways to break through difficult conditions. But when things gradually get better, people begin slacking off: laziness may spread through a long history and is impossible to be corrected when it becomes a common practice. Gradually expanded territory requires corresponding increases in talent, but when the latter is insufficient, the central control will become weak. In a word, no one can escape the 'vicious cycle' of dynastic rise and collapse."

Mao replied that democracy was the answer, because "as long as the people can supervise the government, the government dare not slacken." And Xi later added a "second answer" (https://t.co/p6iV5lUCNk): a system capable of "resolute self-reform".

The jury is still out on whether China has broken the cycle, but if France has any hope of escaping it, it will need both answers at once: a government that truly answers to its people, and very resolute self-reform.

One thing the answer definitely isn’t: turning on each other. In all these cycle theories, division and scapegoating appear on the way down, never on the way back up.

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Paris looks like a war zone. What is the cause? The cost of living? Mass immigration? A mismanaged economy? Excessive spending on war? A crisis of political legitimacy caused by an unaccountable elite? Europe will likely be a very different place 10 years from now.

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

Professor Jiang: "If the Democratic candidates said... we will stop this war in Iran, or two, we will have a moratorium on data centers, or three, we'll force the release of the Epstein files, there would be a blue tsunami... But they don't say any of these three things."

[Alan MacLeod @AlanRMacLeod]

If this were Iran, or another "enemy" country, it would be the top story in every news outlet on the planet.

[Hassan Mafi ‏ @thatdayin1992]

The hypocrisy is jaw dropping

[Caitlin Johnstone @caitoz]

Today in dystopia, the military-industrial complex is reassuring investors that the wars will indeed be endless.

[Vanguardia @vanguardiacom]

✍️#Opinión | "Palestina 36 y la Embajada en Jerusalén".

Por: Juan Sebastian López.
https://t.co/LLOpaajU2c

[Aurelio Suárez | Cuenta oficial* @AurelioSuarez]

La vía hacia el FMI, la ruta del tigre que nos lleva al fondo

Acudir al Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) puede dar liquidez, pero no resuelve la “bola de nieve” de la deuda pública.

De la Espriella sigue la receta extranjera que profundiza la dependencia del capital externo y exige más ajustes.

Colombia necesita un modelo propio que impulse el ahorro nacional y el crecimiento.

Lea la nueva columna en Semana: https://t.co/nsld9J48O2

[沙漠之狐 埃尔温·隆美尔 @3596675596com]

巴西人只知道中国封杀Meta、推特、youtube等美系社交平台，却不知道事件的起因是什么

事件的起因跟2009年7月5日的新疆恐怖袭击有关

当时在新疆策划恐怖袭击的组织者，利用Meta和推特指挥新疆的恐怖分子制造恐怖袭击

中国平定恐怖袭击后，要求Meta、推特等美系社交平台交出恐袭组织者的数据

Meta、推特等美系社交平台以维护用户隐私为由，拒绝提交策划者和组织者的数据

这事成了中国封锁封杀Meta、推特、youtube等美系社交平台的理由

美系社交平台被中国封杀后，对中国市场念念不忘，想回到中国市场，但中国有以下要求：

1.必须在中国建立数据中心

2.必须遵守中国的法律，禁止传播反共反华内容

3. 中国必须必须掌握审核权

因美系社交平台无法满足中国设立的3个要求，中国不允许他们在中国运营，继续封杀

中国当年封杀美系社交平台，美国的盟友没少骂中国破坏网络自由，中国国内也有不少人骂中国政府的做法是破坏自由。互联网防火墙的教授方滨兴，在中国政府封杀美系社交平台后，没少被中国网民骂

但是嘛，2013年情况出现了转机

2013年斯诺登事件，斯诺登爆料苹果、谷歌、微软等美国科技巨头给美国CIA开后门，方便CIA监听其他国家的领导人，尤其是美国的盟友

曾经骂中国破坏网络自由的美国盟友，瞬间成小丑，因为他们发现，自己是CIA重点监听的目标，如果继续骂中国破坏互联网自由，很容易被中国人笑话

自此之后，美国的盟友不再骂中国破坏网络自由，相反，美国的盟友暗中学习中国如何修建互联网防火墙

中国人看了斯诺登的爆料，对中国封锁封杀Meta、推特、youtube等美系社交平台的做法，开始意识到——互联网世界的国境线是存在的。自此，中国人开始理性看待中国政府封杀美系社交平台的做法

再者，中国封杀美系社交平台的时候，恰好是中国本土互联网产业起步阶段，百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯等中国互联网公司，在2009年前后，就像刚学会走路的小孩，实力根本没法和Meta、推特、YouTube等美系社交平台相比

中国正愁如何保护本土互联网企业的发展，结果美系社交平台拒绝提交恐怖分子的数据给中国，给中国封杀美系社交平台提供绝佳理由

在互联网防火墙的保护下，中国的互联网企业能安全度过起步阶段，现在的中国互联网企业，已经发展到具备和美国互联网平台分厅抗衡的实力

[SOBERANÍA 🗞️🇨🇴 @Soberania_Col]

Nos opusimos al Gobierno Petro y nos oponemos al Gobierno De la Espriella.

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Suddenly, Russia is no longer an imminent threat? Did “Daddy” make a few calls to his subsidiaries and tell them to dial down the fearmongering?

[Pedro Baños Bajo @geoestratego]

“"Creo que ha llegado el momento de que Ucrania tenga un nuevo presidente." Trump.

EEUU los pone, EEUU los quita.

Nada nuevo.

Todo depende de los intereses del amo del cortijo geopolítico.

[Jason Bassler @JasonBassler1]

This is the only known picture from Epstein’s “wild” dinner with Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Reid Hoffman.

Whatever you do, DO NOT SHARE IT!
They'd hate that.

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Marco Rubio: "We would never violate the sovereignty of any country"
** The moral self-righteousness is utterly impervious to reality

[Rodrigo Lara 🇨🇴 @Rodrigo_Lara_]

Es monstruoso lo que ocurre en Gaza. Es una carnicería

[Ricardo Hausmann @ricardo_hausman]

If you wanted to see why the US approach to Venezuelan oil is both inefficient and begging to be corrupted just read this news item. Instead of offering oil fields through bids, the current system allocates it to Mar-a-Lago friends who flip them for $500M.
https://t.co/bwrrjkpTLG

[Aurelio Suárez | Cuenta oficial* @AurelioSuarez]

Diputados venezolanos del @PartidoPSUV acusaron en México a @petrogustavo que conocía de antes la operación de “extracción” de Nicolás Maduro el 3 de enero y no dijo nada!
Esto exige una explicación!
@PactoCol @GustavoBolivar @PizarroMariaJo @IvanCepedaCast
Puede oírse la grabación de la denuncia en @BluRadioCo (aprox. 7-40 am) #MananasBlu

[Duberney Galvis @DuberneyGalvis]

Mi columna para hoy invitando a los colombianos a programar sus vacaciones de final de año en el Eje Cafero. Que acaba de ser calificado como el mejor destino cafetero del mundo.

https://t.co/1CIf4G93zT