Here is truflation's estimate of inflation. I spoke with a restaurant owner yesterday who said if you look at all inputs (taxes, labor, insurance, supplies and food) that inflation is easily 10% yoy. I think everything is a lie and we are living in a simulation created to support the narrative.
I'll tell you what's nuts: silver is down 26% today. I'll now tell you what is really nuts: silver is up 10% ytd. I can stay insane longer than markets can remain solvent.
I’ve seen a few people asking: “What do you do with silver now that it’s up so much?”
A few thoughts:
1. Silver is very likely nowhere near a top.
It just broke out of a 46-year cup & handle. Moves like that don’t resolve in a few months. On a log scale, high triple-digits aren’t crazy—especially with the pace of currency creation and the Fed already drifting back toward QE.
2. That doesn’t mean it goes straight up forever. Volatility is part of the process. But structurally, this still looks like early innings, not late.
3. I do use paper silver to take profits, rebalance, and rotate into income-producing assets when it makes sense.
4. My core physical stack is different. I don’t really treat it as a trade. It’s insurance against a sovereign debt crisis. At some point I may roll some into gold if the GSR compresses enough—but that’s risk management, not “selling the top.”
🚨 TD Bank went short Silver at $78 on January 7, 2026 calling a blow off top and just got stopped out at $92.50.
Momentum and liquidity overpowered the paper narrative in a fast moving market.
In 2022 when I sold my tech company (which built apartment software) I planned to roll my capital into apartment building ownership.
After some technical analysis, I came to the conclusion that by 2030, apartments priced in silver would drop to .05 on the dollar and .10 for gold. I went with precious metals.
As of today, compared to Oct of 2022, apartments in silver now cost 21.5 cents on the dollar, and gold 27.5 cents on the dollar.
My thesis is playing out, and I still hope to invest in apartments someday—likely after 2030. Most all assets will lose value in precious metals terms by 2030 in my opinion