EliteCryptoOverlord

Degen overlord | data-driven TA: fractals, liquidity zones & asymmetric convexity plays tracking smart-money flows. No retail delusion—pure alpha.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTCUSDT 1H

1D balance 84–92k. Tagged sell-side ~86.4k bounce; base 86.4–87.0.

Buyside magnets: 88.8–89.5, then 90.5–92.0.

Plan: Long 86.4–87.0 retest. TP 88.8–89.5 / 90.5–92.0 (if >88k holds).
Invalidation: 1H close <86.2k.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$SOLUSDT 1H:
Hard sell-side raid into $123.5, then bounce; LTF base sits 125–126 (ob).
Buyside magnets overhead 132.8–134.0, then 138.5–140.0.

Plan:
Long 125–126 on a retest (post-sweep demand) 132.8–134.0, stretch 138.5–140.0 if acceptance back above 131.
Invalidation: 1H close below 123.5.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$ETH 1H: Bearish Market Structure Shift

Structure: After the rejection from the prior Strong High area, the 1H order flow on the chart has flipped bearish (CHoCH → downside BOS). Price is now trading below the overhead 1H supply/premium area shown on the chart.

The 3,160–3,200 region aligns with a key 1H supply / bearish order-block zone from the prior distribution (and it previously produced a sharp sell reaction). I’m looking to fade relief rallies into that supply rather than treat current range action as a base for longs.

Plan:

Bias: Shorts on rallies (not interested in longs while 1H structure remains bearish).

Entry interest: Reactive short interest on 3,100+, ideally on a retrace into 3,160–3,200 with LTF rejection/confirmation.

Targets: Since 2,875 has likely already been run, the next clean liquidity objective is below ~2,870 → 2,800 (continuation only if we break/hold below that sweep level).

Invalidation: A clean 1H close above ~3,240 (reclaiming internal structure / getting back above the higher supply shelf) invalidates this downside continuation idea.

No retail longing here. Pure liquidity hunting.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$SOL 1H: rejection from the 146 area left us trading inside a 129–139 box. 137–139 is my main intraday supply; I’m fading spikes into that block targeting 132/129 while it caps price. Short bias only changes on a clean 1H close above 140; break below 129 brings the 126 low into play.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$ETH 1H: post-breakout spike into the 3.4–3.45k area tapped a fresh supply zone and set the current local high, then we dumped back into 3.2k. I’m treating 3.34–3.38k as main intraday supply, fading fills there towards 3.12k/3.05k. Short bias only changes on daily close above 3.4k.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC First short from the top is already done. Nothing changes for me – I still only want the edges.

93–94k – looking for shorts (best R/R short for me)

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC reminder:
"I only want the edges: • 93–95k – fade stop runs for shorts" - booked.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC – weekly plan

HTF still heavy after the 126k blowoff. We’re stuck in the 80–100k danger zone and this week is all about the Dec 9–10 FOMC.

I only want the edges:
• 93–95k – fade stop runs for shorts
• 87–89k (83–86k) – reactive longs after a sweep

90–92k = chop, I’m flat.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

@KillaXBT Nice one – basically my top-of-book scenario too. I see $BTC 80–100k as a redistribution box with 95–100k as range-high deviation / exit liq. If we print that euphoria spike then close back inside <90k with ETF flows soft and miners stressed, 74–75k weekly demand lights up.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

Where could the real cycle floor form?

Structurally I still like the 70–75k weekly demand band – where ETF cost-basis pain and miner stress start to overlap.

If flows stay weak and hash under pressure, that’s where I want to build spot on clean sweeps: a zone of value, not a single magic number.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC – 100k as exit liquidity?

HTF is still bearish after the 126k blowoff and we’re trapped in the 80–100k box.

100k is:
• a huge liquidity pool (short stops + breakout longs)
• a round-number narrative magnet
• an easy spot for MM to distribute into FOMO

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

So a 95–100k sweep then mean reversion back into the 90k/80s is very plausible.

I only fade this idea if:
• price accepts above 100k with sustained ETF inflows, and
• we build a new higher-timeframe range up there.

Until then I treat 100k as potential exit liquidity, not a new floor.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

Rotating a slice of focus from intraday $BTC into a 2026 spot book. Mapping out next cycle’s real, incentive-aligned narratives.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

@blockchainedbb Agree on long bias from your green box, but I’m treating it as a bounce within a broader distribution. Lose 82–85k and the next real liquidity pocket is 70–75k, where big on-chain support sits. Until 94–95k is reclaimed, longs are just mean-reversion scalps.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

Global M2 is a powerful long-term tailwind, but it’s not a timing tool. $BTC trades more on the impulse in liquidity (rate of change, not level), real yields and positioning than on the absolute money-supply print.

Historically there’s roughly a 2–3 month lag between shifts in global M2 and BTC’s response, which is why the correlation looks like it “breaks” in the short term. If M2 is expanding while dollar liquidity is being drained via TGA rebuilds, ON RRP flows or a wider cross-currency basis, $BTC can lag that yellow line for months.

2024–25 illustrated this perfectly: $BTC ripped in Q1 2024 on spot-ETF inflows despite muted M2 growth, then sold off from $100k+ in early 2025 even as global M2 accelerated. The liquidity impulse matters more than the level.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

@AshCrypto This isn’t “insane manipulation,” it’s how a highly levered market reprices macro. Cooler PCE = first leg is chase-long FOMO, second leg is profit-taking + stop runs + funding reset. In crypto, the initial move on data is often a liquidity trap, not the real trend.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC Update 2 :
Scout short closed.
Took the first scout short from ~91.2k and closed it into the 90.3k discount pocket for +9.9% on 10x.
Size was intentionally small – this trade was just execution of the intraday idea, not the full HTF short. Core plan hasn’t changed: I still only want to be fully sized if price trades back into the 92.4–92.8k premium PD array with a clean sweep + MSS/CHoCH.

Until then it’s just taking what the market gives and keeping risk light.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

BTC 15m – sniper short gameplan

HTF remains bearish after Thursday’s downside BOS. Today’s Asia session printed another BOS through the lows, tapping H1/15m discount demand around 90.8–91.0k and bouncing – for me that’s just liquidity, not a trend change.

I only want shorts from premium PD arrays.

Clean liquidity sweep of intraday/relative equal highs

M1–M5 MSS/CHoCH down (displacement away from the zone)

Entry on mitigation of the LTF bearish OB/FVG, SL above the swept high

Targets:
• TP1: Asia low
• TP2: todays BOS low in deeper H1 discount (90.8k)
• TP3: keep a small runner – I scale down risk first, then move SL to breakeven once TP1/TP2 are paid. From there I trail it behind structure and let the market decide how far it wants to go.

[EliteCryptoOverlord @JWick6792]

$BTC Update:
First short leg filled around 91.2k after the bounce off 89.8–90k. HTF idea is unchanged – this is still just relief inside a bearish structure.
Core plan stays the same: I’m only fully sized if we trade back into the 92.4–92.8k premium PD array. Until then I treat this as scout size.

Managing it simple: partials into 90.6–90.8k if we get continuation, then move risk to breakeven and let the runner decide. 1H reclaim and acceptance back above 92.4k and the short idea is off the table.