$BTC has rebounded aggressively from the recent lows, and the current move does not look like market eager to sell off immediately.
If spot buyers are indeed absorbing supply & as long as the current liquidity dynamics remain intact, the higher POI offers much better location for bears to defend than forcing shorts into 65k–66k.
This view is based purely on liquidity and current market structure, not on historical price behavior.
NFA.
$BTC These lows are the main key.
Hold them, and yesterday's thesis remains alive.
Lose them, and I think the market starts seeking lower liquidity around the previous weekly lows.
Let's see.
Japan just hiked rates to the highest level since 1995.
The yen is now at its weakest level since 2024.
That's not supposed to happen.
The reason it is: Japan moved rates to 1% while the US is at 3.75% & may hike further.
Speculators are still borrowing cheap yen to buy higher-yielding US assets and one small hike doesn't change that math.
Japan spent $73bn trying to stop this last month. It's back at the same levels.
I don't want to short just because price is going down.
We're near the bottom, and current flows suggest buyers are willing to absorb supply. I'd rather lean toward that side of the market.
If the market proves me wrong, I'll adjust accordingly.
Unrelated topic, news can invalidate any setup, which is why risk management matters more than being right.
one of those days might get you, but you will get over it.
Shit happens.