bitcoin:native is increasingly likely to see a correction in September.
I’d be surprised to see a sustained break above $83,000 before October.
Q4 could be a different story. Expect fireworks, but not just yet.
Oil was a lot more expensive in August than in July, both Brent and WTI.
That usually shows up in inflation, so August CPI is likely to be higher than July.
Higher inflation is bad for stocks and other risk assets. September could be a weak month.
Best trade of all time?
Bought 10,000 bitcoin:native for $0.78 each in April 2011.
Total cost: $7,805.
Sold in July 2025 for $1,092,463,000.
That's 140,000x.
$BTC continues to follow a recurring pattern on the monthly timeframe.
Every major rally has been followed by a 13-bar, roughly 396-day correction phase before the next move.
We appear to be inside that same window again.
If the structure repeats, we still have time in Q4, and the bottom might not be in right now.
The next major leg higher could come once this phase resolves.