KDMacro | Inside Track

CIO & Board Advisor | Public & Private Markets
Views are my own.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@byHeatherLong Strong headline but worth reading the internals. 70k of those jobs were restaurants and bars. Local government added 55k, taxpayer funded, not private sector demand. Financial activities lost 22k and is down 107k since May 2025. Transportation down 92k from its peak.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@LizAnnSonders The Strait of Hormuz is now in the PPI record books.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@JustinWolfers NFIB small business hiring intentions just hit six year lows. Capital expenditure plans matching 2009. Net share planning to raise prices at 36%, highest in three years. The establishment survey and the small business survey are telling two different stories right now.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@CryptoTice_ Been tracking this framework for months, connecting Warsh, Miran, Bessent, and the macro data in real time. Thread 👇
https://t.co/XYiX4UTXqD

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

What if the Strait of Hormuz closure isn't a crisis being managed — but a mechanism being used?A thread. 🧵

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

May CPI: +4.2% YoY. Up from 3.8% in April. Gasoline +40.5% YoY. Energy +23.5% YoY. The Strait of Hormuz is now in every American's grocery receipt and at every gas pump. Warsh speaks in 6 days.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@BSCNews Maximum fear. Maximum institutional accumulation. These things don't usually happen at the same time by accident.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@LizAnnSonders Gold was the 4th largest US export in 2025 at $81.9 billion, up 31.7% from 2024. When gold bars are the 4th largest export the trade deficit narrative gets more complicated.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@PeterSchiff https://t.co/XYiX4UTXqD

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

What if the Strait of Hormuz closure isn't a crisis being managed — but a mechanism being used?A thread. 🧵

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@KevRGordon And if that hike comes, into a consumer with delinquencies at 13.1%, real wages negative, and 401K hardship withdrawals tripled since 2020, that's a different conversation than a standard tightening cycle. The labor market looks strong on the surface. The consumer underneath it?

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@WSJ Steadily recovering. 160K of 172K jobs in bars, restaurants and local government. Wages +3.4% vs PCE 3.8%, still losing in real terms. Consumer delinquencies 13.1%, highest since 2010. Strong headline. Complicated underneath.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@JustinWolfers Worth adding — 401k hardship withdrawals tripled since 2020 per Vanguard, consumer delinquencies at 13.1% highest since 2010, spending exceeding income. The leisure and restaurant numbers make more sense in that context. Consumers spending on credit not confidence.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@JustinWolfers Take recession off the table. Put stagflation back on it. 160K of 172K jobs in bars, restaurants and local government. Wages +3.4% vs PCE 3.8%. Warsh can't cut into this print. Trap just got tighter.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@onechancefreedm Read the internals this morning and came to the same conclusion in real time. The payroll vs household survey split is the most important number nobody led with. Good breakdown.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@byHeatherLong Fair point on the trend. Whats worrying is 401k hardship withdrawals tripled since 2020, consumer delinquencies at 13.1%, highest since 2010, consumer spending more then theyre earning, I suspect why leisure, restaurants are up

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@byHeatherLong Long-term unemployment up 524,000 over the year. 6.2 million people want work but aren't counted as unemployed. Wages at 3.4% with inflation at 3.8% — the average worker got a pay cut in real terms again this month. The composition tells a different story.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@byHeatherLong Strong headline but worth reading the internals. 70k of those jobs were restaurants and bars. Local government added 55k, taxpayer funded, not private sector demand. Financial activities lost 22k and is down 107k since May 2025. Transportation down 92k from its peak.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

Warsh inherits this June 17th. Can't cut into 172,000 jobs and 3.8% PCE. Can't hike into a consumer losing 1.1% real disposable income annually. The headline looks strong. The trap just got tighter. June 11 PPI. June 17 Warsh speaks. Step 6 is next.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

172,000 jobs added in May. Beat expectations by a mile. Barclays was calling 75,000. Wrong number to celebrate.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

70K — bars and restaurants. 55K — local government. Financial activities down 107K since May 2025. Wages +3.4% vs PCE 3.8% — still losing in real terms. Long term unemployed up 524K over the year. Two different stories.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

@KobeissiLetter Real income declining 4 of 5 months while debt sits at $36T and a new Fed chair inherits 3.8% PCE on June 17th. This isn't a soft patch. This is the environment yield curve control gets politically executed in.

[KDMacro | Inside Track @KDavidMacro]

Warsh inherits all of it June 17th. Can't cut into 3.8%. Can't hold with GDP at 1.6% and slowing. JOLTS Tuesday. ADP Wednesday. Jobs Friday — Barclays 75K, April was 115K. The bond market isn't waiting. Step 6 activating now.