Kelly Duke

Don't ever settle for being half loved. You are everything you need to be, the right person will see that

[Andy (Degen Ed) @degen_an]

Overnight Market Prep: FAFO FOMO

https://t.co/3lzr09Szyx

Exploring broader market trends, including overview of volatility $UVIX $VIX, the S&P 500 $SPY $SPX, crypto including Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH, and some potential swing trade ideas that include USA Rare Earth Inc $USAR, Moderna $MRNA, Plug Power $PLUG, SoFi Technologies $SOFI...

This is Degen Ed. That is, degenerative education — not financial advice — just me having fun looking at charts. Like and subscribe for more!

I also went over New Horizon Aircraft $HOVR, Indie Semiconductor and VanEck ETF $INDI and $SMH, Applied Digital $APLD, D Wave Quantum $QBTS and Defiance Quantum ETF $QTUM, ChargePoint $CHPT, Marathon Digital $MARA and $BTC.

[Forex Lens DeFAI @ForexLens]

USD strength is the dominant market driver after strong US data and no dovish FOMC signals. Full convergence across all styles (ICT/IT, Smart Money, Elliott/Gann, Price Action) on USD bullish continuation into tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes (2pm NY). Risk assets under heavy pressure.

Highest conviction plays right now:
USD longs, especially USD/JPY, and waiting crypto dips for reversal.

Full-Convergence Trade Ideas (4/4 styles agree):
• Long USD/JPY – all styles bullish, targeting higher (IT/ICT favourite, Smart Money accumulation, Elliott/Gann bullish momentum, Price Action strong uptrend)
• Short EUR/USD – unanimous bearish continuation lower
• Short GBP/USD – unanimous bearish, targeting previous week/monthly lows
• Short AUD/USD – unanimous bearish continuation
• Crypto pullback = accumulation for reversal higher (all except pure Price Action aggressively short; ICT/IT, Smart Money, Elliott/Gann all see current discount as institutional buying zone for eventual leg up)

Gold split:
ICT + Smart Money = bullish continuation/accumulation; Elliott/Gann + Price Action = corrective Wave 4/bearish trend.

[Investing.com @Investingcom]

*US ECONOMY CONTRACTS FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2022 ON IMPORTS SURGE

🇺🇸🇺🇸

[United States Trade Representative @USTradeRep]

.@POTUS' trade program is teeing off the Golden Age, maintaining tariffs to lower the goods trade deficit while driving massive investment and unlocking market access for American workers and businesses.

[Tom Giovanetti @tgiovanetti]

The United States has run trade deficits for 48 straight years, during which time the U.S. economy has grown by 255% in real terms. Decades of trade deficits have corresponded with increases in manufacturing output, wealth, and household incomes.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

The craziest bit of the US trade data so far this year is undoubtedly trade in pharmaceuticals. Makes the swings with China look modest.

1/

[USA em Português @USAemPortugues]

.@USTradeRep: Durante décadas, a política econômica dos Estados Unidos esteve subordinada às práticas comerciais de outros países, resultando na terceirização de empregos americanos e na deterioração de nossa base industrial.

O @POTUS está estabelecendo um novo sistema comercial que fortalece a posição econômica dos Estados Unidos no mercado global e incentiva empresas a investir em solo americano.

[USA em Português @USAemPortugues]

.@USTradeRep: Durante décadas, a política econômica dos Estados Unidos esteve subordinada às práticas comerciais de outros países, resultando na terceirização de empregos americanos e na deterioraç��o de nossa base industrial.

O @POTUS está estabelecendo um novo sistema comercial que fortalece a posição econômica dos Estados Unidos no mercado global e incentiva empresas a investir em solo americano.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Some more interesting (and likely more important) things happening right now, but still wanted to highlight a couple of the details of the US trade data.

Seems pretty clear what is happening here

1/

[United States Trade Representative @USTradeRep]

America is entering a new era of prosperity thanks to @POTUS forging deals with Switzerland, Korea, and Latin America to remove trade barriers, attract new investment, and unlock markets for U.S. exports.

These historic agreements were quickly met with praise from American manufacturers and industry leaders: https://t.co/BsbbqgQjZF

[Chris Childs @ChrisContrado]

The "Made in China" era is officially over.

For the first time, Mexico has surpassed China as America's top trading partner.

A 2024 Kearney report shows the largest annual spike in reshoring activity to date.

Here's what's causing the supply chain revolution 🧵:

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

Thanks to @POTUS’ historic efforts to rebalance global trade, the U.S. trade deficit has seen a significant turnaround. The deficit has narrowed appreciably, reversing the upward trend seen under the Biden administration.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️US tariffs remain sky-high:

The US effective average tariff rate is sitting around 15%, the highest since the 1930s.

The world is likely headed for lower trade volumes, higher-than-average inflation and slower economic growth.

The globalization era has come to an end.

[Jon Markman 🛸 @jdmarkman]

The market's distracted by short-term noise & misses these long-term trends.

Tariffs and trade wars capture headlines.

But they don't change the underlying reality:

To compete in the AI race, USA must upgrade its electrical infrastructure.
Here's why they have to:

[Karl Mehta @karlmehta]

Trump's tariff policy isn't just punishment—it's reshaping global trade with American leverage.

His Commerce Secretary:

"The scale of companies coming to America is mindboggling, driven by Donald Trump's tariff policy."

[United States Trade Representative @USTradeRep]

While the United States maintains one of the lowest average applied tariff rates at 3.3%, our trading partners maintain egregious tariff rates, constraining American export opportunities.

The Trump administration will continue to pursue policies to correct longstanding trade imbalances and restore American competitiveness.

[United States Trade Representative @USTradeRep]

President Trump continues to use tariffs as leverage to secure major trade deals, opening up new markets for American exporters and reigning in our large and persistent trade deficit.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The US has brought forward 5 years of trend retail sales growth since the pandemic started due to stimulus

[Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 @JosephPolitano]

Today in "why trying to 'solve' the trade deficit with tariffs is a bad idea"—US exports to Canada/Mexico/China continue rapidly dropping amidst the trade war

[Gallup @Gallup]

81% of Americans consider foreign trade as an opportunity for economic growth, jumping 20 percentage points since last year.

Those seeing it as more of a threat to the U.S. economy has fallen by half, to 14%.