Ke!th

•Option Trader•All tweets are thoughts and opinions•Not A Financial Advisor

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

Don’t define progression on if it’s right or wrong, define it by if it helps you get to the next level

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

Been trading under the scene, but i’m back!
Made a discord to build a community. Swings and trade ideas will be posted on there. Charts,Flow,Tips, you name it.

https://t.co/iYg3ZjSLIA

[Gamma Gains @GammaGains_]

Top earnings watchlist Rivian Automotive Inc. $RIVN
•Current Price: $13.41
•Expected Move: ±14.18%
•Implied Volatility: 86.50%
•Earnings Date: February 20, 2025 (After Market Close)

$SPY $SPX $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL

[Gamma Gains @GammaGains_]

Earnings on watch today Copart Inc. $CPRT
•Current Price: $59.21
•Expected Move: ±7.2%
•Implied Volatility: 75.19%
•Earnings Date: February 20, 2025 (After Market Close)

$SPY $SPX $NVDA $TSLA $AAPL

[Atlanta Falcons @AtlantaFalcons]

.@M_Ryan02 thought he was just coming to speak to the team

But we had a surprise for him ... The Falcons Ring of Honor

[Rader Trader🔧 @RaderTrader101]

🩸STATE OF THE MARKETS🩸

If you are confused or lost as to what will happen next read this.

-The Bottom-
To truly understand what is going on right now we have to talk about why and how markets bottom. In majority of broad market bottoms following the classic bear market move (20-25%), you typically see a few key signs that indicate the bottom is in. Firstly, you see financials ( $XLF) set a higher low while technology sets a lower low. Additionally you typically see copper or transportation ( $trans) start to outperform the overall markets. Refrence chart 1 for this example.

From a technical standpoint, what do we look for in a bottom?Well, you typically see a technical ‘bottom’ and a liquidation ‘bottom’ even though theirs only 1 true bottom. lol Im saying bottom a lot. Refrencing chart labeled 2, you can see the technical bottom is where majority of firms set the base and buy, while the liquidation is where market makers trap put buyers which add more fuel to the upside move. Picture a ball falling really fast, when I jump up and punch it it takes all the force out of the decent… now it just has to come down and touch the ground before the fall stops.

However, these rules really only apply to the bigger drops. Right now are only expecting a 3-8% selloff, not the traditional 25%. So what do we look at to indicate a bottom?

Well, similar, but different concepts. Starting with the basics it is still a good sign to see $XLF bottom before QQQ or SPY, which it currently has. But it’s not the give away. Additionally, its also good to see a techncial bottom, then a liquidation to follow. I dont know if any of you saw my instagram story, but we DID get a liquidation down to $489 in the afterhours off of war news. By open though it was bought right back up causing a lot of confusion. Refrence chart 3.

Although it was in the afterhours, it was still the liquidation.

One more sign of a bottom , at least one thats relevant now, is the dollar and gold relationship. I have been watching the $DXY dollar corelation to comoodities, specifically $GLD. Tradtionally the dollar and gold/commodities have an INVERSE relationship with eachother. One goes up the other down. However, recently they have both been going up. This means the dollar is in a footrace with GOLD. As soon as the dollar goes up enough to CRACK gold and commodities enough to drop, it should mark the topping cycle of the dollar. All that needs to happen now is a slight bounce on gold to cause a drop in the DXY, finally restoring the correlation once more. We actually got this today as I am writing this. Looking at chart 4, you can better see this concept.

-Gameplan-
So is the bottom in? I beliebve (for now) yes. As long as $SPY does not go below the $489 liquidation level, I think its most valuable to spend my time trading the long thesis. Seasonals say the better trades will be to the upside for now but to expect consistent fakeouts in either direction. For the next 5 weeks, expect literally nothing meaningful to happen in the overall markets. Swing trading SPY will get you clapped. Swing trading semiconductors will get you clapped. Stick to intraday movements outside of my option flow strategy. If spy does go for a new low below 489 it will delay the bottom thesis to late may or early June.

-What I am trading-
Defensive and value names have been the big winners. As outlined in the Rader Report, $XLU, $XLP, $DIA holdings are all going to catch wind the next few weeks. Trade these long as they will hold better than the overall markets and even be green when markets are down. $IWM is also the better trade to the upside if you want to trade a move that you see on $SPY. To the downside I will be trading individual technology and software names. Also commodities into early may. These will all catch a fat leg down. With an elevated VIX trading index options like SPY and QQQ will leave you in a hole.

Dont overtrade. Dont overhype the drop. Stay neutral.

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$INTC at an area of interest

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

there it is

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

call me crazy but $SPY going to 507

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

i got a couple tag trades to post

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$COIN ⬆️ $RCL & $SNOW ⬇️

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$COIN got in on this near open, love the massive green candle. ITM puts at 125 and 130 are a plus to this trade.

$IWM $SPY $QQQ $TSLA $META $BA $MARA $INTC $NVDA

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

loving the chart on $TSLA here, only thing that worries me is the wall at 220.

$IWM $SPY $QQQ $BA $TSM $GOOG $META

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

hmmmm

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

call me crazy but $SPY going to 507

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

you’re welcome :)

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$CELH imo one of the best set ups rn, its already done its tag, ITM calls, expecting this to come down towards 57.8 area sometime this week.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $BA $NVDA $WMT $TSM $TSLA

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$INTC liking this to the upside, gapped up today and held pretty nicely.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $AMD $BA $TSM $VIX $NVDA $TSLA $GOOG $AMZN

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$CELH imo one of the best set ups rn, its already done its tag, ITM calls, expecting this to come down towards 57.8 area sometime this week.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $BA $NVDA $WMT $TSM $TSLA

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$W at a area of interest for me, with some ITM puts at 55 for 1/19.

$SPY $IWM $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA $GOOG $TSLA $AMD

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$APLS its already made its tag, but doesnt mean its too late or we wont get another one.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $BA $TSLA $NVDA $WMT

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

$GM puts to 35.5 doesn’t sound too bad. Market makers won’t close this above 36.5

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

@AlexJonesIA disgusting

[Ke!th @KersaOptions]

@RaderTrader101 Liking this