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US Jobs Report
@HedgeyeUSA
1. Feb NFP #’s were negatively distorted by weather, strikes, et al .. so March benefited from the reversal
2. Given the distortions, revisions & labor supply dynamics, most of the signal in the monthly employment data is still in the CPS ratio’s (U3 & E2P ratios).
3. Early March (survey period) = only captures the lead edge of the Iran/Quad3 dynamic
I was at a steakhouse in Dallas, eating alone at the bar. Next to me was a young guy in a military uniform. He was eating a baked potato and a side salad.
Nothing else. He kept eyeing the steaks coming out of the kitchen, then looking at his wallet. I flagged the bartender.
"Put his tab on mine," I whispered.
"And send him the ribeye.
Tell him it's a mistake from the kitchen."
The bartender grinned. "You got it."
Ten minutes later, the huge steak landed in front of the kid. "I didn't order this," he said, panicked. "I can't pay for this."
"Kitchen messed up," the bartender lied perfectly. "Manager said to eat it or we have to trash it." The kid ate like he hadn't seen food in a week.
When he finished, he asked for the check.
"Covered," the bartender pointed at me.
The kid turned to me. "Sir, I..."
"Thank you for your service," I said.
"Get home safe." He stood up, shook my hand, and walked out taller than he walked in.
If you have more than you need, build a long table, not a higher fence. 🫡🇺🇸
Hedgeye Announces Strategic Minority Investment from the Federal Reserve at $1.1 Billion Valuation
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
STAMFORD, Conn. — April 1, 2026 — Hedgeye Risk Management today announced that it has entered into an agreement in principle for a strategic minority investment from the Federal Reserve, in a transaction that values the independent research firm at approximately $1.1 billion.
The investment is expected to support the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to enhance its real-time economic monitoring capabilities by incorporating Hedgeye’s proprietary Quad framework, CPI Nowcast, and broader macro risk-management process into select policy and forecasting workflows.
As part of the agreement, the Federal Reserve will gain access to certain Hedgeye research tools, models, and proprietary data designed to improve the speed and transparency of economic signal detection across growth, inflation, and market volatility regimes.
“We have long believed that better data, better timing, and better process lead to better decisions,” said Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management. “This investment represents a meaningful validation of the work our team has done for years. We are pleased to support the Fed as it works to improve its understanding of the economic cycle in real time.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who recently visited Hedgeye’s headquarters in Stamford, said the central bank was drawn to the firm’s ability to simplify complex macroeconomic shifts into actionable signals.
“Hedgeye’s work has proven to be highly differentiated,” Powell said. “As we evaluated ways to modernize parts of our process, it became increasingly clear that building around their framework could be more efficient than continuing to explain away why they keep seeing things earlier than we do. If you can’t beat the Quads, you might as well buy them.”
Under the proposed partnership, Hedgeye will also provide the Federal Reserve with a dedicated live Macro Deck feed to be installed within the Eccles Building in Washington, with updates every 90 seconds and push alerts for major changes in growth, inflation, and policy signals.
“This is a major step forward for institutional macro analysis,” said Daryl Jones, Director of Research at Hedgeye. “For years, our clients have relied on our models to cut through noise and stay ahead of major economic shifts. We’re excited that policymakers may now benefit from the same discipline, process, and signal clarity. It also suggests that somewhere inside the Federal Reserve there is finally a growing appreciation for not waiting three meetings to recognize a trend.”
According to the parties, the transaction includes an initial framework for collaboration across macro research, policy surveillance, and nowcasting infrastructure. The Fed is also expected to evaluate whether future communications may incorporate select Hedgeye visualizations, including a possible pilot program replacing the traditional dot plot with a more dynamic Quad chart format.
Additional terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
Hedgeye expects the transaction to close following customary review, including internal Federal Reserve approval and any necessary determination as to whether a central bank that routinely gets the economy wrong — whose senior officials have faced scrutiny for inappropriate trading ahead of major policy announcements, and whose interventions have repeatedly fueled bubbles, rewarded speculation, and punished savers and workers — can own part of a private research firm that exposes its ignorance and arrogance in real time.
About Hedgeye Risk Management
Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, Connecticut. Founded by Keith McCullough, Hedgeye provides institutional and individual investors with real-time macroeconomic analysis, market signals, and risk-management tools. The firm is known for its proprietary Quad framework, CPI Nowcast, and commitment to transparent, data-driven research.
Media Contact
Dan Holland
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I threw 5.2 innings, taking a no-hitter into the 6th, against Mclennan, and finished with 7 strikeouts, allowing 3 hits and 3 earned runs after a couple late swings. Looking forward to building on this outing! @msy_young@MK51Baseball@AJWaters_93@HCRebelBaseball
@landon_karrh@HCRebelBaseball@MK51Baseball@BUncommitted@AJWaters_93 Proud of the young man you are becoming. The work shows. 14 innings, 21 strikeouts, 3 walks. That is a solid start! FB up to 92 and climbing means the standard is rising. Few get to see the incredible man you are off the field. Any school would be thankful to have you.
Starting sophomore year strong — 14 IP, 21 K’s, 3 BB. Fastball has been up to 92 with a full 4-pitch mix for strikes and ~70% strike rate so far. Excited to keep competing with this squad!
@HCRebelBaseball
A 4 year school next year is going to get a very hidden gem in @landon_karrh
A true pitcher who knows how to command his arsenal and is really beginning to tap into his potential. Not even close to his ceiling yet.
Please reach out for TM data if interested!