Khoon Goh

Head of Asia Research for ANZ | Economist | FX Strategist | Views are my own

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

@MHReddell @victorialduke Note that Michael's account has been hacked. Hope he gets it back soon.

[Troll Football @TrollFootball]

It took Lamine Yamal less than 24 hours to find a replacement for his ex

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Both the onshore and offshore #yuan has strengthened past the fix for the first time in a while. This is after the #PBOC set another stronger than expected fixing today. Next major technical level at 7.10, which we could easily see if the DXY breaks down further.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

August manufacturing PMIs for Asia were mixed. The new orders to inventory ratio has been a better forward gauge of the region’s GDP growth than the headline PMI. The good news is that It is pointing towards a pick-up in growth over the second half of the year.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Economist magazine cover as contrarian indicator strikes again? #China equity markets rally after authorities announced measures to boost sentiment.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Despite all the negative news regarding #China's property sector, iron ore futures continue to rally today. Does the market know something the rest of us don't?

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Offshore #yuan (#CNH) responding, strengthening past 7.29. Was nearly 7.35 yesterday. But for a more sustained rebound, really need the US 10-year bond yield to start coming down from current levels. That was what helped the yuan rally from last November's lows.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#PBoC showing they mean business to stem yuan decline. After news that they asked state banks ramp up FX intervention yesterday, they have followed up with the strongest fixing bias relative to expectations today. Fix was 7.2006, 1041pips stronger than BBG survey.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Ok, Bloomberg made a mistake with the China new home price data released earlier. The decline was not as bad, "only" -0.23%m/m. This is the second major error in their reporting of China data so far this month.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#PBoC fixing deviation the largest since October last year (783 pips stronger than BBG survey). But its pretty clear the authorities are allowing the yuan to weaken in the face of widening yield differentials and a firmer #USD.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

China's new home price data for July make for ugly reading. A fall of 3.09%m/m.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

@Brad_Setser There were signs of some dollar selling yesterday but nothing major. There is plenty of firepower for them to intervene more forcefully, first through the state banks before using their reserves. Fixing signals no longer cut it. But they are facing the impossible trinity.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#China retail sales vs #US. Part of reason why #PBoC just cut rates while #Fed still talking hawkish.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#PBoC continues to buy gold for their reserves (23 tonnes added in July). This is the eighth consecutive monthly purchase, taking the share of gold in #China's total Official Reserve Assets to nearly 4%, an all time high. #RBI, #BSP and #MAS have also been buying gold this year.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

If you think asset managers are going to dump US Treasuries just because Fitch downgraded them to AA+, where will they reallocate to? Chart below is size of all triple-A rated (at least by one of the big three) general government debt securities outstanding.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#India also crushing it on the services PMI.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

#India's manufacturing PMI towering over the rest of Asia.

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Latest Fed loan officer survey shows further tightening in lending standards. With bank credit growth set to eventually contract, and student loan repayments resuming in October, can the US economy stay resilient? https://t.co/KbNQwehZ8K

[Khoon Goh @Khoon_Goh]

Another stronger than expected #yuan fix from the #PBoC today, at 7.1406 vs 7.1936 expected (Bloomberg survey). Pretty clear the authorities want to cap currency weakness. The Chinese economy may be facing headwinds, but there is no sense fighting them on the currency.