Hahn

Views are my own. Not investment advice. Dyor

[Rick @dwerty_qq]

In June 2006, a 49-year-old New York hedge fund manager who had never had a home-run trade raised $147 million from friends and family to bet against the entire American housing market.

Wall Street laughed at him. His own investors thought he was crazy. Eighteen months later he had personally earned $3.7 billion the largest single-year paycheck any hedge fund manager had ever received.

His name was John Paulson.

Six months before the fund launched he had hired an unemployed Italian immigrant named Paolo Pellegrini as an analyst, largely out of pity. Pellegrini had top grades from Harvard Business School and had never really made it on Wall Street. He was calling old contacts looking for any work.

Pellegrini spent three months building a database of American housing prices going back to 1975 in Microsoft Excel. Bloomberg did not carry the data. He typed it in by hand from Federal Reserve reports. When he showed Paulson the chart, one line climbed at an angle no economy had ever survived.

"This is crazy," Paulson said to Pellegrini in the spring of 2006. He meant the housing bubble.

The trade required buying credit default swaps insurance contracts on subprime mortgage bonds. The insurance was almost free because nobody thought the bonds could default. Goldman Sachs built a synthetic CDO called Abacus 2007-AC1 specifically so Paulson could short the exact mortgages he had picked. German and Dutch banks took the other side.

Through late 2006 and early 2007 the trade lost money every month. Investors wanted out. Paulson kept adding to the position.

Then in February 2007 the fund returned 66 percent in a single month.

By December the flagship fund was up 590 percent. The firm made $15 billion gross that year. In 2008 he made another $5 billion shorting the banks. Assets under management went from $6 billion to $36 billion in eighteen months.

For years afterwards he refused to talk about the trade on camera. He gave the story to a Bloomberg journalist for a book, sat for a few closed-door panels, and let everyone else fill in the rest.

Then in 2021 a small podcast nobody had ever heard of called FinanZe asked him for an interview. He said yes. He walked through the trade from June 2005 to December 2008 for the first time in his own words on the record. One hour and three minutes.

Bookmark and watch today ↓

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@Manish_05Singh @Kathleen_Tyson_ Do you disagree with his assertion? If so, why?

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@HaraldinChina Wonder if Kyle bass is 1 of those investors

[Ridark @ridark_eth]

I genuinely don't understand why everyone isn't using this yet

Andrej Karpathy, a co-founder of OpenAI, posted a simple idea that hit 16 million views: stop using AI to write code, use it to build a second brain.

You point Claude Code at a folder, drop in any source, an article, a transcript, a PDF, and Claude reads it, links it, and files it into a living wiki of everything you know. It compounds like interest, the more you feed it, the smarter it gets.

Here's the whole thing:

> Install Obsidian, create a vault, open it in Claude Code

> Paste Karpathy's wiki idea file and tell Claude to build it

> Claude makes three folders: raw for sources, wiki for its pages, a CLAUDE.md that runs it

> Drop any source into raw and say "ingest this"

> Ask questions across everything, forever

Five minutes to set up, and you never start from a blank chat again.

Full step-by-step guide with Claude and Obsidian, link below.

Bookmark this

[TraderLion @TraderLion]

A 2019 US Investing Champion is premiering his complete High Tight Flag playbook right now.

Leif Soreide breaks down the exact pattern behind Celsius' 900% move — and how to spot the next one.

Full presentation: https://t.co/d9VXJ4MaBz

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@Jkylebass Finally you post something factual

[Goehring & Rozencwajg @Go_Rozen]

🎙️ Commodity markets are cyclical. Capital cycles may be the real driver.

Adam Rozencwajg of G&R joined Windrose Advisors CIO Gildas Quinquis to discuss energy markets, oil, gold, underinvestment, and why natural resources may still be in the early innings of a broader commodity bull market.

🎧👉 Listen to the full discussion here: https://t.co/a9Qt5UgUhl
---
#Energy #Commodities #Investing #Oil #NaturalGas #Macro #Inflation

[Brad @BradleyKellard]

In 2023, Stanford professor Graham Weaver gave his last lecture on how to destroy fear & live a wildly ambitious life.

His frameworks:

- Suffering is inevitable
- Signup for "10 years" test
- "Not me" & "Not now" traps

13 lessons on how to build an asymmetric life:

[Crowded Market Report @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt]

If you have been short stocks at any point since April 2nd, you need to watch this video!

[Eric Friedman ⚙️ @EricFriedman]

@Breedlove22 Here’s the full episode for others looking for it https://t.co/Ij0Yn0LHKX

[ludoonchart @ludoonchart]

How a math PhD built a $10,000,000,000 empire with exactly ZERO human traders.

Alexander Gerko founded XTX Markets. They trade $300 Billion every single day. No charts, no financial news, no stress. Just pure machine learning predicting price action.

While retail traders draw support lines and panic, his automated models systematically extract their liquidity.

Bookmark & watch Bloomberg break down his "no humans" strategy. Then read below to see exactly how these quantitative systems are built

[Rohit @heyrohitai]

Apple fired Steve Jobs.

He walked into MIT and gave the most honest 60-minute business lecture ever recorded.

No PR filter. No image to protect. Just raw thinking from the guy who built Apple once — and was about to do it again.

Watch this instead of Netflix tonight.
Bookmark it for later

[Amit @HeyAmit_]

This 1 hour Yale lecture by Professor Ben Polak on game theory you will ever seen.

It will change how you think about decisions in negotiations, business, and everyday life.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

A MIT professor gave a 1-hour lecture in 2019 that has 18 million views.

He died 5 months after recording it.

It was his final gift to the world.

Patrick Winston taught at MIT for 50 years.

The smartest engineers on earth sat in his classroom.

And he spent his last lecture teaching them the one skill their degrees never covered.

How to speak.

15 lessons that will change how you communicate forever:

Never open with a joke. Your audience is not ready to laugh yet. Open with a promise of what they will know by the end.

Your ideas are like your children. You are too close to them. What is obvious to you is invisible to everyone else. Explain the obvious.

The 5-minute rule: the first 5 minutes of any talk determine whether people will listen for the next 55. Spend more time on your opening than anything else.

Repeat your most important idea 3 times in 3 different ways. Once is never enough.

Build a fence around your idea. Tell people what it is NOT before you tell them what it IS.

Verbal punctuation. Pause. Let the idea land before moving to the next one.

Ask questions nobody will answer. Then wait 7 seconds. The silence is not awkward. It is processing.

Never read your slides. Your audience can read. They cannot listen and read simultaneously.

Use the board not the slides. Writing forces you to slow down. Slowing down forces clarity.

Inspire before you inform. Nobody learns from someone they are not inspired by.

End with a contribution not a summary. Tell them what you gave them. Not what you said.

Never say thank you at the end. It is weak. End with something that lands.

Stories make ideas stick. Data makes ideas understood. You need both. In that order.

The quality of your communication determines the quality of your ideas in the eyes of the world. Not the ideas themselves.

Practice is not preparation. Practice IS the skill.

Patrick Winston understood something most people spend their entire careers missing.

Your ideas are only as powerful as your ability to transfer them into someone else's mind.

You can be the smartest person in the room and be completely invisible.

Or you can master communication and make average ideas feel like breakthroughs.

He chose to spend his last lecture teaching this.

Watch it tonight.

Bookmark this first.

Follow @cyrilXBT for more lessons from the people who built the future.

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@aravind So is the US winning the war by April as U predicted or U are not talking about that anymore?

[Peak Thinkers @PeakThinkers_]

In Navy SEAL training, students who failed daily had to do two extra hours of punishment.

They called it “circus.”

Those students should have burned out first.

Instead, they got stronger than everyone else.

Admiral McRaven spent 20 minutes explaining the 10 lessons SEAL training taught him:

Lesson 1: Make your bed.

Every morning, the first thing instructors inspected was your bed. Corners square. Covers tight. Pillow centered.

"It seemed ridiculous at the time. We were aspiring to be real warriors."

"But if you make your bed every morning, you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will encourage you to do another task, and another, and another."

"And if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made. That you made."

Lesson 2: Find someone to help you paddle.

Students were broken into boat crews. Seven men paddling through 8 to 10 foot surf.

"Every paddle must be synchronized. Everyone must exert equal effort or the boat will be dumped back on the beach."

"You can't change the world alone."

Lesson 3: Measure a person by the size of their heart, not their flippers.

The best boat crew was "the munchkin crew." No one over five-foot-five.

"They out-paddled, out-ran, and out-swam all the other boat crews."

"The big men would make fun of the tiny little flippers the munchkins put on their tiny little feet. But these little guys always had the last laugh."

"SEAL training was a great equalizer. Nothing mattered but your will to succeed."

Lesson 4: Get over being a sugar cookie.

Several times a week, uniform inspections. Hat perfectly starched. Belt buckle shiny.

"No matter how much effort you put in, it wasn't good enough. The instructors would find something wrong."

Fail the inspection, you ran into the surf. Then rolled in sand until covered head to toe. "Sugar cookie."

"Many students couldn't accept that all their efforts were in vain. Those students didn't make it through training."

"Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or perform, you still end up as a sugar cookie. It's just the way life is sometimes."

Lesson 5: Don't be afraid of the circus.

Fail to meet standards, your name went on a list. End of day: "circus." Two hours of extra calisthenics designed to break you.

"No one wanted a circus. More fatigue meant the following day would be more difficult."

"But everyone made the circus list. And an interesting thing happened. Over time, those students got stronger and stronger."

"Life is filled with circuses. You will fail often. It will test you to your very core."

Lesson 6: Sometimes you have to slide down the obstacle head first.

The obstacle course record had stood for years. Seemed unbeatable.

Until one student went down the slide for life head first. Mounted the top of the rope instead of swinging underneath.

"Dangerous. Seemingly foolish. Fraught with risk."

"Instead of several minutes, it took him half that time. He broke the record."

Lesson 7: Don't back down from the sharks.

The waters off San Clemente are breeding grounds for great white sharks. Night swims were mandatory.

"If a shark begins to circle your position, stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid."

"If the shark darts towards you, summon all your strength and punch him in the snout. He will turn and swim away."

"There are a lot of sharks in the world."

Lesson 8: Be your very best in the darkest moments.

Underwater ship attacks. Divers swim over two miles to the target. As you approach, the steel structure blocks all light.

"The keel is the darkest part of the ship. You cannot see your hand in front of your face. The noise is deafening. You can easily become disoriented."

"At the darkest moment of the mission is when you must be calm. When all your inner strength must be brought to bear."

Lesson 9: Start singing when you're up to your neck in mud.

Hell Week. Six days of no sleep. Constant harassment.

His class was ordered into the mud flats. "The mud consumed each man until there was nothing visible but our heads."

Eight hours until sunrise. Instructors said five men could quit and everyone could leave.

"Then one voice began to echo through the night. Terribly out of tune. Sung with great enthusiasm."

"One voice became two. Two became three. Before long everyone was singing."

"Somehow the mud seemed warmer, the wind a little tamer, and the dawn not so far away."

"If I have learned anything, it is the power of hope. One person can change the world by giving people hope."

Lesson 10: Don't ever, ever ring the bell.

A brass bell hangs in the center of the compound.

"All you have to do to quit is ring the bell."

"Ring the bell and you no longer have to wake up at 5 o'clock. No longer have to do the freezing cold swims. No longer have to endure the hardships."

"Don't ever, ever ring the bell."

This 20 minute speech will teach you more about discipline, resilience, and hope than every self-help book combined.

Bookmark & give it 20 minutes today, no matter what.

[Allen Braden @allen_explains]

This 2-hour Stanford lecture breaks down how models like ChatGPT and Claude are actually built, clearer than what many people in top AI roles ever get exposed to.

Save this and set aside two hours today. It might end up being the most valuable thing you learn all week.

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@ViktorKlopp What's the name of this movie?

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@adamscochran So TLDR is Americans can't be trusted?

[Hahn @Kiurin82]

@TraderPamplona I'm afraid you are right.... Supposed leader of the "greatest" nation on earth... What a joke