@WeekendInvestng I dont know why everyone is triggered. Modiji asked to buy psu banks , at that time no one did .. then there was huge rally . No one gave him credit . Now if he says someting .. lets atleast analyse why he said what he said . Alok ji will clarify this tomorrow for sure
@pvsubramanyam Sir your youtube channel and posts on this platform suggest you have a split personality 😂 . Your lack of a filter on X is quite refreshing .
Has the Rupee Hit Bottom?
When headlines say “rupee crosses ₹90 per dollar”, it creates anxiety.
But for investors, the key question is simple: Is this a crisis or a normal cycle?
1) Is this a rupee crisis?
No.
In a true currency crisis, you typically see:
•A very high current account deficit
•Rapidly falling forex reserves
•Panic-driven capital flight
India today:
•Current account deficit is relatively low
•Forex reserves remain comfortable, covering several months of imports
•The central bank still has enough capacity to manage volatility
This is currency weakness, not a breakdown.
2) Why did the rupee fall so sharply?
Main reasons are global, not domestic:
•Foreign investors reduced exposure to Indian equities
•Global uncertainty increased demand for the US dollar
•Interest rate differentials moved against emerging markets
This reflects global capital movement rather than India-specific stress.
3) Does a weak rupee hurt all investors?
No. Impact varies.
Potential beneficiaries
•Export-oriented companies (IT services, pharmaceuticals, chemicals)
•Companies earning in dollars but spending largely in rupees
Potentially affected
•Businesses dependent on imports such as oil, electronics, or machinery
•Companies with large unhedged foreign currency borrowings
A weaker rupee creates both challenges and opportunities.
4) Can the rupee fall much more from here?
Further weakness is possible, but the probability is lower than before.
Reasons:
•The currency has already adjusted significantly
•Export competitiveness has improved
•There are no major structural imbalances forcing sustained depreciation
Most likely scenario is a volatile but range-bound rupee.
5) What should retail investors do?
Key takeaways:
•Avoid panic-driven decisions
•Do not try to time currency movements
•Maintain diversification across sectors and geographies
•Prefer companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power
Bottom Line
The rupee’s move looks like a cyclical adjustment, not a structural problem.
For long-term investors:
Currency volatility is temporary.
Business fundamentals and earnings matter far more.