KryptomaxK9

⚔️⚔️SPARTAN WARLORD ⚔️⚔️
The Battleground in the Markets

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Today’s weaker-than-expected jobs data triggered a clear reversal in the 10Y–2Y yield spread.

This is the important signal:

The front end is finally starting to give up.

When the market was pricing “higher for longer” after hawkish commentary from Warsh, I said the same thing clearly:

Higher front-end rates will not strengthen the economy.
They will break it.
Eventually growth will deteriorate enough that the Fed will be forced to cap the front end again.

That shift is now starting to show.

And Gold’s reaction is telling you the market understands it.

As long as 2-year yields were ripping higher, Gold was under pressure.
But once the trend of rising front-end rates fades, and growth concerns start dominating, Gold and silver gets a completely different setup.

That is when the next rally gets real fuel.

Not from inflation alone.
Not from geopolitics alone.
But from the market realizing the Fed cannot keep the front end tight forever while the economy weakens.

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

#Silver Explosion today?

Market makers under pressure
30 June $SLV options expiry

$SLV break above $55 and pin breaks. Market Makers have to buy to hedge

SLV now at $54...

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Not even a single commodity was spared today.

Oil down nearly 4%.
Gold down 3.5%.
Copper down 3%.
Platinum and Palladium down almost 6%.
Silver absolutely smashed, down nearly 9%.

This is one of the most brutal commodity selloffs we have seen in recent years, where the liquidation is not selective anymore.

Energy, precious metals, industrial metals, everything is getting hit at the same time.

This is what a broad deleveraging wave in commodities looks like .

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Gold is starting to show good relative strength against dollar in the short term.

The blue line is the Dollar Index inverted.

Inverted dollar makes a fresh lower low, gold should also be under pressure and make a fresh lower low given the strong relation these days.
But that is not happening here.

The inverted DXY has already broken lower, while gold has managed to hold its current low. That is a clear sign that sellers are losing momentum and gold is absorbing dollar strength much better than before.

This does not mean the larger correction is over.

But it does suggest that, as long as gold holds the current low, the probability of a strong relief bounce in both gold and silver is high.

Gold can easily attempt a move back toward $4,477–$4,600, and silver can also participate strongly because the Gold/Silver ratio is still near the higher end of the range.

The key level is simple:

As long as the current low holds, gold and silver look ready for a bounce.

[TheGladiator @TheGladiatorHC]

Frank Giustra says gold is going through a real structural shift. Debt, money printing, de-dollarisation, and central banks quietly swapping dollars for gold are all behind it. The recent pullback is just speculators and short-term traders cashing out after a sharp run, while central banks keep buying with a multi-year plan in mind. Gold isn't just trading against the dollar or interest rates anymore, it's quietly becoming the world's neutral reserve asset.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

India’s silver imports have collapsed.
Value-wise, imports are down nearly 82%.
Volume-wise, they are down more than 90%.

And yet silver is still trading at a premium in India.

The government has clearly stepped in hard.

The Prime Minister questioned the import surge.

Import duty was raised.

Silver imports were restricted.

In simple words, this is another way of blocking supply without openly calling it a ban.

All thanks to the oil shock.

When a country is forced to protect its currency, reserves, and trade balance, precious metals become an easy target.

But don’t treat this as a one-off event.

This is a glimpse of what is coming in the next 3–5 years.

At some point, we may see Gold and silver trading at different prices in different countries.

And in a few countries, physical Gold and silver may not even be easily available to the public.

Paper price is one thing.

Physical availability is another.

That gap is only going to get wider.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Elon yesterday said something that sounds futuristic, but it is actually the oldest truth about money.

Money isn’t paper.
Money is access.

Access to energy.
Access to matter.
Access to labor.
Access to food.
Access to land.
Access to machines.
Access to future production.

For thousands of years, the form changed.
Shells,Silver,Gold,Paper,Bank deposits,Digital balances,Debt,Central bank reserves.

But the foundation stayed the same.
Money has always been a claim on the real world.
Modern finance forgot this.

We started treating the claim as wealth.
It isn’t.

A central bank prints liquidity in seconds.
It does not print silver.
It does not print oil fields.
It does not print power grids.
It does not print nuclear plants, skilled workers, fertile soil, semiconductors, or productive factories.

At some point, paper runs into physics.
And we’re already seeing it.
For years, cheap money flowed into financial assets.
Stocks.
Bonds.
Real estate.
Private equity.
Crypto.
Anything with a price moved higher.
Paper claims exploded.

The physical world did not keep up.

Energy systems were neglected.
Mining was ignored.
Supply chains got fragile.
Power grids became strained.
Strategic metals became harder to secure.
Housing, food, and infrastructure became more expensive to produce.

Now the cycle is shifting.

The next shortage is not capital on a screen.
It’s real-world capacity.

Oil.
Copper.
Silver.
Uranium.
Electricity.
Land.
Water.
Food security.
Grid capacity.
Industrial supply chains.

The last cycle rewarded people who chased financial assets.
The next cycle will reward people who secure physical resources.
Fiat money expands without limit.
Resources don’t.

Debt promises the future.

But the future still needs energy to arrive.

Every late-stage money system eventually hits the same wall.

Too many claims.
Not enough real-world capacity.
We call it inflation.
We call it debasement.
We call it scarcity.
We call it loss of trust.
Elon framed the idea through AI and space.
At civilization scale, dollars won’t be the constraint.

Energy will be.
Materials will be.
Heat removal will be.
Mass will be.
Physics will be.

That’s the deeper point.

Fiat is the accounting layer.
Gold is the trust layer.
Energy is the civilization layer.
Because paper prices the world.
But only energy and matter build it.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Why this week’s FOMC is big:

This is the first FOMC after the recent rise in US yields.
More importantly, it is Kevin Warsh’s first real test as Fed Chair.

The question is simple:
Will he be hawkish or dovish?
If Warsh sounds hawkish, yields and the dollar can bounce again.
That will pressure gold, silver, equities, and risk assets.

If he sounds dovish despite inflation staying sticky, markets will read it as financial repression.
That is bullish for gold .

So this FOMC is not about whether the Fed cuts or holds.

The Fed is likely holding.

The real event is Warsh’s tone.

Does he fight inflation?
Or does he protect the system?
That answer can decide the next big move in dollar, yields, gold, and risk assets in the medium term.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Good question. The difference is who is doing it and where liquidity is entering.

COVID QE → Fed directly created reserves and bought longer-duration Treasuries/MBS openly. The balance sheet exploded and money entered the system directly.

Now → Treasury buys back old Treasuries, issues more bills, and the Fed supports the short end by buying bills / maintaining liquidity conditions.
So instead of:
Fed → buys bonds → injects liquidity

it becomes:
Treasury → buys old debt → issues bills → Fed absorbs/supports bills → liquidity preserved

Functionally similar direction, different transmission.
That’s why I call this indirect monetization, not classic QE.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

The U.S. Treasury buying back its old debt while the Fed is buying Treasury bills is not normal market plumbing anymore , it is indirect debt monetization before they officially call it QE.

This is not happening because America suddenly has excess cash.

It is happening because the Treasury market is becoming too large, too illiquid, and too difficult to fund through long-duration debt.

So the strategy is simple:

Buy back old Treasuries.
Issue more short-term bills.
Let the Fed absorb bills to keep liquidity smooth.
They will call this “market functioning.”
But in reality, this is debt being recycled inside the system.

Treasury is reducing pressure from the long end.
The Fed is supporting the short end.
Together, it becomes a soft version of monetization without officially calling it QE.

And this is extremely bullish for Gold.

Because once governments are forced to manage debt through liquidity operations instead of real demand, the market starts questioning the quality of fiat debt itself.

Gold does not need a speech from the Fed.

It only needs proof that the debt system cannot stand on its own.

And this buyback + bill issuance + Fed bill buying structure is exactly that proof.

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@Barchart Is that a giant bull flag

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@AlexesNakamoto @saylor Gobbledygook

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@AYi_AInotes $NVDA pulls another rabbit out of the hat

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@Macrobysunil $TNX vs $DXY
Weekly, Daily, 2H

TNX on Daily made Same Low but RSI made Lower Low.
DXY still below Weekly EMA200, but repeated knocking on Daily EMA200. Meanwhile EMA20 about to cut above EMA200

Future of the world hangs on $BZ?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC.

Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations including Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@KobeissiLetter Oil breakout on 2 hourly charts but weak on daily and weekly.

Ten year yield made Same Low. Will it make Same High or Lower High? Odds favour a Lower High?

$BZ $TNX
Weekly, Daily and 2H charts
Keltner Bands, 4SD Bollinger Bands, LBR 3/10 Indicator

[TheGladiator @TheGladiatorHC]

Michael Oliver says the silver pullback should end today or Monday, with support in the mid-$70s. The next move is back to $90, and once that breaks, silver really takes off. The target is still $300 to $500 by late summer, the same way copper and lead exploded when they finally broke out of their decade-long ranges

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@KobeissiLetter Intraday outperformers...

$XLV $IHE $IWM $IYT
$RSP $XLB $HG $GC $SI

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

@KobeissiLetter Suddenly pressure is off...

Ten year bond yield $TNX, $DXY $BZ collapse

$ES rockets but outperforms $NQ $SMH
-- signalling sector rotation?

Also Interestingly #gold outperforming gold miners, but silver miners outperforming #silver...

[KryptomaxK9 @Kryptomaxk9]

#Silver $SI $SILJ

Giant descending triangle on an uptrend, after breaking out of a massive 50 year cup and handle...

Pressing into the daily EMA 200.

Shorts might get taught a lesson...