André Kurmann

Professor @LeBow College of Business @DrexelUniv | Economist

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

There's a lot of interest about the revisions in the BLS payroll numbers. A lot of this has to do with how the BLS adjusts for birth / death of businesses. How fitting then that our paper on exactly this issue was just published in @JPubEcon! 1/n
https://t.co/vPl3wSXw7B

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@voxeu @LeBow @DrexelUniv @LaleEtienne @YorkUniversity @iza_bonn @esg_uqam @homebase Two lessons: 1️⃣ The Nice Neighbor to the North 🇨🇦 will only take so much. 2️⃣ Trade shocks can have non-trivial effects on...non-tradables!

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@voxeu @LeBow @DrexelUniv @LaleEtienne @YorkUniversity @iza_bonn @esg_uqam @homebase 14k-42k jobs may not seem like that much (then again: we care greatly about +/- 50,000 in the monthly payroll numbers), but these effects are highly concentrated in a few places and don't take into account negative effects on larger businesses or spillover effects.

[VoxEU @voxeu]

When neighbours stop knocking: The hidden impact of Canada’s 2025 tourism decline on US local labour markets
Andre Kurmann @KurmannAndre @LeBow @DrexelUniv, Etienne Lalé @LaleEtienne @YorkUniversity @iza_bonn, Julien Martin @esg_uqam
https://t.co/hJa8qvmKHy

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@SorryToBeKurt @ojblanchard1 Looks like Larry is taking a quick nap...

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@JesusFerna7026 Skunk Works is indeed a terrific book (I didn't know we share a love for planes). And yes, I've been asking myself exactly the same question: what value-added do universities provide in the age of AI? Would love to hear more of your thoughts on this!

[Joshua Gans @joshgans]

If AI and workers were strong complements, what would we see?, https://t.co/dujBIpnM7a Does the latest data tell us AI is a substitute for human work? Nope. Is that comforting? Also nope. My comments on @erikbryn and co. (and @Noahpinion)

[Teresa Fort @Tfpiasecki]

The Economics of Education Reform by Roland Fryer https://t.co/3OKICw5ph9

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@LaleEtienne @LienTa4795 @joinhomebase @rsandza @SafeGraph Nonetheless, we hope our method provides food for thought on how to improve real-time measurement of employment. For all the details, read the paper
@JPubEcon
or at https://t.co/vPl3wSY3X9. 11/11
#econtwitter @BLS_gov

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

There's a lot of interest about the revisions in the BLS payroll numbers. A lot of this has to do with how the BLS adjusts for birth / death of businesses. How fitting then that our paper on exactly this issue was just published in @JPubEcon! 1/n
https://t.co/vPl3wSXw7B

[André Kurmann @KurmannAndre]

@LaleEtienne @LienTa4795 @joinhomebase @rsandza @SafeGraph Long-story short:
- The method works well, even under extreme circumstances.
- But there are also important challenges with regards to data consistency / availability.
- That's why it's not so easy for the BLS to "just use a better method" 10/n