Kurt Theobald

Armchair economist and pundit. I post theses + ideas with variable confidence. I post to help + learn from others. Primary account @kurttheobald.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

$TAL - The swing to strong profitability from loss is usually a seismic event for stock valuation because it enables institutional investors to engage with strong justification.

$BBBY will have this same experience soon, I expect.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

$TAL Q3 Earnings Beat

Revenue: $770M (+27% YoY)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25 vs ~$0.15 est
Gross margin: 56.1% (up 340bps)
Operating income: +$93M vs LOSS of $17M last year

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

$TAL Important detail that’s easy to miss: Deferred revenue up 73% to $1.16B. Indicates future strength growing.

$3.6B cash on ~$7B market cap puts enterprise value at ~$3.4B against a 30% grower printing 12% operating margins.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

https://t.co/n7W90frdfY

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

INVESTMENT THESIS: PARTY’S OVER.

I’m detained by other foci right now, but I have closed 95% of my “bull” positions over the past 10 trading sessions to make space for shorts. Started to accrue a short position on Wednesday of last week. Short CVNA, QQQ, BTC, SOXL, and others. Provided up-trends are not reacquired, I will be adding to my short on bounces. I expect a 20+% retracement in the Nasdaq before federal and Fed stimuli are able to steady the decline.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

@CGGalakoutis @dougblazers @tZERO Pithy perspective. Thanks!

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

@dougblazers @tZERO Another post I read about it said they would either be converted or bought back at $10 per share, so maybe I’m wrong. I certainly didn’t read the fine print myself!

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

@dougblazers @tZERO 💯💯💯

And an armchair investor who uses AI to understand complex things like this…

But also probably correct. Are you suggesting anything I said is incorrect? I’m happy to eat humble pie if I’m wrong!

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

@CNBC - this is factually incorrect. The current rate *is* 400-425 bps. This writer for you suggests it would be a reduction to stay at this level and represents the 25bps cut as a “deep rate cut”. I assume they’re inaccurately referencing a current rate range of 425-450.

https://t.co/tYlyF8pxIn

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

@SamanthaLaDuc My thoughts exactly.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

🎶Isn’t it ironic? A little too ironic, dontcha think?

😄

I also suspect this massive dark pool activity are the biggest institutions offloading long volume to smaller institutions on promises of a final pump so they can focus on shorting the final third of the race to the top.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

And less than 24 hours later, here’s that future I was talking about on college debt… 😄

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

The Trump administration has agreed to forgive student debt under income-driven repayment programs it had partially blocked, per CNBC.

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

Let me tell you the future. Not specific dates, but a repeating cycle.

Here’s the cycle (and then I’ll break it down in detail):

1. Irrational Exuberance
2. Crisis
3. Institutional “Rescue”
4. Recovery
5. Releveraging
6. More Irrational Exuberance

(1/17)

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

College debt: First, is it a bubble? Absolutely. Tons of leveraged funding going in + very little value coming out = bubble. BUT it’s a government-created bubble, so the future is that the government will bail them all out, likely in exchange for adopting the eventual new monetary system. So, this is not the source of the coming crisis. The can will be locked down the road for a very long time and likely eventually buried.

(4/17)

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

…but that’s a different topic for a different time! 😄

(17/17)

[Kurt Theobald @kurtinvests]

The costs of this cycle are great, indeed. This cycle erodes a nation’s strength over generations.

So what will save us from this cycle? A culture of net producers. And what is required to achieve that? A completely different education system than we have in the USA…

(16/17)