Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇

I work on regional security & geopolitical issues re: China, Taiwan & Southeast Asia. From 🇲🇾. Formerly @CrisisGroup. RTs=/endorsements

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

In summary:
1️⃣I was offered a one-time free reschedule. However, there’s no other flight available on the same day!
2️⃣ I asked if they can put me on a earlier MAS flight, since they often codeshare. They say cannot, FINE.

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

What this would mean? Cross straits tension will persist. China will 1) continue to discredit Lai's legitimacy for only getting 40% votes in the presidential race, and selectively working with pro-China legislators to have something to show to their domestic audience. /9

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

It certainly seems that Lai is not even attempting to appease China. After all, when Tsai offered the olive branch in 2016, it was not well received and instead called "incomplete test answer". /8

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

A personal proud moment is also when I attended Munich Security Conference as a young leader in 2023, it is when I felt the weight of being associated with an organization as reputable as @CrisisGroup, and the impact of our work. 7/

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

I also really enjoyed doing the research for this piece, where we looked the foreign policy implication of the CCP's 20th Party Congress. 6/ https://t.co/5OsGJKmbuT

[Ibraheem Bahiss @Afghan_Policy]

@CrisisGroup published a report this week about regional states’ engagement with the Taliban. Reading our paper could help you understand the extraordinary news in recent days about Afghanistan’s relationship with its neighbors. A short thread. 1/

https://t.co/xeSmBI2Znd

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

Lai should at least repeat Tsai’s articulation in 2016, that cross-straits affairs will be conducted as per ROC constitution, which contains the notion of “One China. La can also extend the olive branch by listing possible areas of cooperation to Beijing. 8/

[Ivy Kwek 郭艾薇 @Kwekii]

Dialogues unlikely, but not impossible. What Lai says and do from now till inauguration in May will be crucial. As we have previously noted in our reports, Lai must quickly establish a mutual understanding with Beijing that will serve as the basis of cross-straits exchange. 7/