Ladder McConkey

Football Addict | Ladder Bet Merchant
2026: +19.8u | Tracker⬇️

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Adding

Saints +12.5 (-110) 1u
Saints ML (+680) 0.25u

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MNF Halftime Bets

Chris Olave Over 113.5 (-114) 2u
🪜Olave 150+ (+400) 0.25u

Olave 8+ Receptions (+118) 2u
🪜Olave 9+ Receptions (+230) 0.5u
🪜Olave 10+ Receptions (+430) 0.25u

[Ladder McConkey @LadderMcConkey]

MNF Halftime Bets

Chris Olave Over 113.5 (-114) 2u
🪜Olave 150+ (+400) 0.25u

Olave 8+ Receptions (+118) 2u
🪜Olave 9+ Receptions (+230) 0.5u
🪜Olave 10+ Receptions (+430) 0.25u

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��❌ Awful Sunday

Back down to +17.8 units on the season

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Tre Tucker Over 37.5 (-115) 3u
🪜70+ (+411) 0.75u
🪜80+ (+630) 0.4u
🪜90+ (+950) 0.3u
🪜100+ (+1440) 0.2u

Spags likes to do whatever he can to take away your best weapon. I think he’ll have a plan to try to limit Bowers as much as possible. Whether it works or not I think it can get Tucker in some advantageous positions. I think Tucker is an underrated young player and Kubiak can scheme him some explosive plays especially against an aggressive Chiefs scheme. We have already seen a game of 100+ yards from him.

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LADDER PLAY 🪜

Jaylen Waddle Over 56.5 (-114) 3u
🪜90+ (+334) 0.75u
🪜100+ (+502) 0.4u
🪜120+ (+1080) 0.2u
🪜130+ (+1560) 0.15u
🪜140+ (+2200) 0.1u
🪜150+ (+3200) 0.1u

Waddle is coming off another dud of a game. That makes 2 duds in his first 3 games as a Bronco. But in between duds he had an explosion game for 138 yards. The Rams and Chiefs put a ton of extra attention on him and it was clearly the installed game plan to make anyone else beat them. Thats at least a sign that Waddle can light teams up if they cant do that successfully or dont try. I dont see that coming from the 49ers. They have no defensive line bodies left. Luckily for them they have played a very easy schedule but better teams will be able to bully in the trenches. Well the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines and they will be moving this Niners front. I think the Niners are forced to put that extra body and attention into the run defense instead of shutting down Waddle. They also dont have a shadow corner that can follow Waddle all over and compete. I think Waddle is going to make some big plays here on play action shots and crossers. They also might make an effort to get him more screens or designed looks to get him a little more involved and just get the ball in his hands. Bo Nix should have plenty of time to throw from clean pockets allowing Waddle to run dowfield longer developing routes. The Niners defense is overrated from playing a sleepy rams offense, and the dolphins disaster, but they did allow Michael Wilson and Trey Mcbride to light them up in a shootout. I expect more shootouts from the Niners and Waddle can go off today.

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Vikings -9.5 (-115) 3u
🪜Vikings -16.5 (+196) 0.75u
🪜 Vikings -19.5 (+285) 0.5u
🪜 Vikings -26.5 (+750) 0.2u

Brian Flores revenge. Flores is a psycho and now he’s playing the team who fired him and who he has a lawsuit against. He had major beef with the Dolphins owner over . Even if Flores didn’t have this game circled, I would still expect this chaotic defense to really take advantage of the Miami offense. This Vikings defense is even more scary playing at home where the loud crowd noise affects communication which is key against such a crazy defensive scheme. I think Malik Willis and Co. (without achane) are in for a longgg rough day at the office. Flores is going to dial up his most diabolical shit to embarrass them. I see turnovers and maybe even a defensive score. The revenge narrative makes me much more comfortable believing in the Vikings to not have a letdown at 3-0 against a bad team. I think the whole team will play for Flores today.

On the other side the Dolphins defense is atrocious. That defensive roster is one of the worst I’ve seen. I trust KOC to have a good gameplan to take advantage of their deficiencies. With good field position throughout the game, comfortable pockets, at home, I think Kyler can run the offense effectively. Kyler is trying to salvage his career and will want to show out in this easy matchup.

Big time talent and coaching mismatch with enough incentives to keep them focused and wanting to run up the winning margin.

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1:00 Slate Anytime TD’s

Parker Washington (+145) 1u
Christian Watson (+170) 1u
Derrick Henry 2+ (+210) 0.75u
Colston Loveland (+240) 0.75u

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Chicago Bears Team Total O 23.5 (-115) 3u
🪜Bears TT O 29.5 (+250) 1u
🪜Bears TT O 33.5 (+480) 0.5u
🪜Bears TT O 37.5 (+1000) 0.2u

Another Ben Johnson spot. Another backup QB to show off with. I like Tyson Bagent and again I think he runs the offense well just like Keenum did. And thats all he’ll need to do with Ben Johnson cooking and some great playmakers. Not only does he want to show off with his backup QB, but he is also going against Aaron Glenn who he went against in practice for a couple years when they were the Lions coordinators. I think the Jets defense is overrated right now. Im a jets fan and I would love this defense to be as good as it has looked but I think Ben Johnson will exposed it today.

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Hometown explosion game loading

Christian Watson Over 67.5 (-113) 3u
🪜100+ (+280) 0.75u
🪜110+ (+390) 0.5u
🪜125+ (+630) 0.3u
🪜150+ (+1400) 0.15u

Playing right by his hometown where he grew up. He said he wants to put on a show for the 15-20 people he has coming to the game in addition to the many more he knows will show up. The Packers have a few days of extra prep off TNF last week and have had so much practice against blitz heavy schemes already this season. He is a big play waiting to happen, especially against these aggressive blitz happy teams as we saw in the Vikings game. I’ve seen Todd Bowles Bucs allow so many big games to WR’s over the last few years. Golden is breaking out and preventing teams from hyper focusing on stopping Watson. Watson is balling out and with this game circled and the perfect opponent I think he has a massive day.

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I love this Rams Eagles game today!

LAR/PHI 1H Under 21.5 (-110) 2u
Rams ML & 1H Under 28.5 (-117) 2u

Kyren Over 57.5 Rush Yds (-109) 3u
🪜80+ (+265) 1u
🪜90+ (+390) 0.5u

Corum Over 38.5 Rush Yds (-113) 2u
🪜60+ (+318) 0.5u
🪜70+ (+521) 0.3u

SGP (+606) 0.5u
- Rams ML
- 1H Under 24.5
- Kyren 70+ Rushing
- Corum 40+ Rushing

The Eagles offense has been struggling and I expect it only to get worse today with Lane Johnson and DeVonta Smith out of the lineup. The Rams are going to come in focused at 1-2 and off a loss. The Rams have slow starts to games sometimes and a East coast 1:00 game could have the offense start slowish. Regardless Fangio plays the Rams a certain way, and he is 3-0 against the Rams as Eagles DC so I expect his plan to be the same as usual. What that plan does is take away explosive passing and highly incentivize running the ball. He shows light boxes and the Rams have been very effective running on them in these matchups. That will create long clock chewing drives when they do have success, and the game will come down to the red zone battle. Jalen Carter is playing with a hurt wrist and has not been fully himself. I think we get a run heavy Rams attack with both RB’s having a great day. I think its a great 1H under spot, the Rams get a lead, play shutdown defense, and run the ball down their throats.

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Parker Washington Over 75.5 (-113) 3u
🪜110+ (+280) 1u
🪜130+ (+533) 0.4u
🪜150+ (+970) 0.25u
🪜170+ (+1780) 0.15u

I laddered Parker Washington in weeks 1 & 2 for some great profit but he left SO much on the table. Then in week 3 I stayed off and he only had 40 yards. That ended a streak of 6 games of 80+ yards. So now it’s time to go right back to the man. This time he absolutely smashes.

Parker Washington has only 2 catches in the 2nd half of all games this year for 16% of his yards. In games 1 and 2 he had 80+ yards just in the 1st half. A full 60 minutes of involvement and production is the upside im chasing here and I think it comes this week.

All his per route metrics are off the charts right now:

0.34 targets per route run (2nd)
3.25 yards per route run (6th)
4.53 air yards per route run (3rd)

AKA he is earning targets at an elite level, even while being targeted downfield a ton, and converting them into production. He’s just a really good football player. BUT he has not scratched the surface of what he can do.

He went on a run of 145, 115, 87, 106 to end last year and his role has expanded this season. We can expect those same spikes, if not higher coming. There are a few things that have held his production back that could flip on a dime.

First, the Jaguars are averaging 29 dropbacks per game… lowest in the league! Thats why those elite ‘per route’ metrics haven’t translated to huge spike weeks yet. They have run only 5 offensive plays while trailing and have won their combined 1st halves 48-6. When compared to the Jaguars recent opponents, even going back to the end of last year, the Bengals are a big step up in competition as far as an opposing offense goes. If the Bengals can push the Jaguars for 4 quarters, Parker can go absolutely wild.

Second, Parker is at 1.13 Yards after the catch per reception this season (8th percentile!). Im very confident that will get a lot better as the season progresses. He has great YAC skills and a coach/scheme that will give him great YAC opportunities. He was 62nd percentile in that metric last year.

Third, he is ranked WR73 of 103 in terms of catchable target rate. I think thats just unlucky. TLaw is playing great football and I fully expect that to translate to a big improvement on this. Parker is his favorite target and there is really good chemistry between the two.

This Bengals defense is a unit I have absolutely no problem taking a ladder against. I knew they would be much improved, but as I said in a previous weeks write up, it still wasn’t going to be a great or even good unit most likely. They were all time bad last year, so a decent improvement still has them at below average. They had some deceiving results, but allowing a 30 spot to the Steelers was the regression I was expecting. Coen, TLaw, and Co. should be able to have a day on this unit.

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✅Easy

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🚨LIVE BET

WAS/IND 1st Half Under 21.5 (-102) 2u

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Ladder Play🪜

Houston Texans -2.5 (-130) 2u
🪜Texans -9.5 (+250) 0.5u
🪜Texans -12.5 (+340) 0.4u

Love this spot for the 0-3 Texans. In the same spot last year they had back to back dominant performances and caught fire the rest of the season. Nico Collins is IN and he means everything to this offense. The Cowboys defense is a liability and now the secondary is decimated regardless of the Joey Porter addition. I think the Texans finally have a good game on offense which allows the defense to play with a lead and attack. This defense is still elite and I think they show out against a big name offense and cause a couple turnovers. Ultimately I just know this team is going to have a really good week of practice and come out with a fire. Backs against the wall at home with a rowdy crowd that hates the Cowboys.

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Took 11 days of NFL Football to have a losing day of at least 1u.

TNF
❌-1.25 units

Time to bounce back.

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@JDGoldboys Keeping an eye on it to see if it’s worth it for me. So far… Yes, but small sample. If I wasn’t limited at DK, I would just always bet there for the free 1st half insurance as long as lines are comparable.

[Ladder McConkey @LadderMcConkey]

Analysis on the effects of:
- Fanduel Bet Protect+
- Draftkings Early Exit+

Now that September is coming to a close free injury protection will be no more. So is it worth it?⬇️

Obviously my assumption was that it would NOT be worth it in the long run. But so far, it feels like it has helped, so lets see based off my own results. On here I have graded all injury affected plays as a loss. But in my personal accounts they have been voided. The chart below shows the difference.

On here I am +51 units. If you void all the losses where the player was injured and did not return that becomes +64.5 units.

Assuming it wasn’t free so far and I was opting in whenever possible, I would have paid a 3% fee on every eligible wager. ~125 units of eligible wagers = 3.75 units in fees. Subtracting the fees you get a profit of 60.7 units.

BUT if I never opted in, and only bet at Draftkings where 1st half injuries are covered for free, I would still profit 60.2 units. Without the extra cost, the ROI is higher and the profit is about even.

Obviously a 3 week sample size is very small and it will be different for everyone. I’ll continue to track it.

[Ladder McConkey @LadderMcConkey]

TNF Additions

TJ Watt 2+ Sacks (+207) 0.5u
TJ Watt Anytime TD (+4000) 0.1u

Lets have some fun!

[Ladder McConkey @LadderMcConkey]

TNF CARD

Steelers -2.5 (-120) 1.5u

Ladder Play🪜
J. Warren Over 75.5 Rush Yds (-113) 2u
🪜100+ (+250) 0.5u
🪜120+ (+571) 0.25u
🪜150+ (+1840) 0.1u

Dont have time for a full write up, but I want to fade the Browns off consecutive wins against teams I do not believe in whatsoever. Watson is getting praise and he has played better but his problem of holding the ball too lomg remains. I think this Steelers pass rush can make some game changing plays. The D-line is full of stars and all healthy at the same time which has been rare for them. Warren has been one if the most efficient backs in the league in his career, but shockingly his counterpart in all his committees have never missed a game alongside him. I think he relishes this opportunity and shows out on primetime. The Browns run defense has been a little vulnerable and is towards the top of the league in explosive runs allowed. That fact combined with my estimated game script could mean a big day for Warren.

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LADDER PLAY🪜

Josh Downs is about to COOK in London

Josh Downs Over 62.5 Rec Yds (-114) 3u
🪜90+ (+259) 1u
🪜110+ (+547) 0.4u
🪜120+ (+780) 0.25u
🪜150+ (+2300) 0.15u

Josh Downs is the real deal. If you play fantasy I suggest you go get him before he pops off. He’s always been a good separator, but is finally being featured and getting a full allotment of snaps and opportunities. It was a story of Colts camp and something I was monitoring because I knew this guy was a great player and just needed the commitment from the coaching staff. It was confirmed in week 1 even though he didn’t convert it into the box score. He was a full time player, playing in 2-wr sets and getting some snaps on the outside, no longer limited to a slot only player. Its a similar story as Parker Washington… a great player is getting much more chances for targets by being on the field more, getting plenty of slot snaps that help production so much, and playing in 2-wr sets where there is lesser target competition. He’s also in motion a lot, and just clearly a much bigger focal point of the Colts attack this year. That was clear even before Alec Pierce went down. Now, without Pierce, its even more so the Downs show.

As for the talent he is at the top of the league in separation metrics after facing the Texans, Chiefs, and Ravens. The guy is getting open and against good competition. And when the coaches and QB watch the tape and see the same guy getting open consistently, they are only going to look to feature him more. And when they look at their opponents tape, I think I know exactly how they will plan to attack this week.

The Commanders are proving to be a pass funnel defense. They’re stopping the run at an insane rate, while allowing QB’s to dice them up. Saquon popped one long run of 42 yards, but all other carries went for 2.9 ypc. I saw a crazy stat that it was a 2nd percentile yards before contact out of 2,785 qualifying games. Javonte had 12 carries for 30 yards (2.5 ypc). The Seattle committee totalled 39 yards on 17 carries (2.3 ypc). They are absolutely stuffing the run game. Meanwhile Hurts, Dak, and Darnold combined for an average of 287 yards and 3.7 pass TD’s. Hurts is bringing that down with a 200 yard game in week 1 on low volume too.

This is by far the easiest matchup Downs has seen this season. He’s been playing really really well, but not quite popping off due to some stiff competition on the other side, a run heavy offense, and maybe a little rust from Daniel Jones. Jones should be getting more and more comfortable, and the Colts will be incentivized to throw the ball with this matchup. He’s had 72 and 77 yards the last 2 weeks but I see a much bigger game coming and what better matchup than this.