Lucas⚖️ （parody）

Independent Investor | Hardcore Value seeker since 2010. Long $TSLA & $NVDA since 2015

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

https://t.co/4uLQeZJGqX

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

From its peak of 72.88, CGNX has pulled back 20%. From our entry point at 63-64, the pullback is about 8-9%.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

As planned, add 20% at 58-59. This is a solid spot for a second add.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Over the past month, some felt quant strategy returns were too low. Compared to those passively taking losses in a falling market, you are actually lucky enough.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

A month ago, we insisted that people hold off on buying more stocks, cut exposure, and keep cash. For retail investors, especially those without hedging tools, that was absolutely the best choice.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Another indicator to watch is whether capital flowing out of semiconductors aligns to push up other sectors with sustained momentum. A real second leg of the rally begins only when that signal appears.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

At the end of a bear market, people often hold out hope for a rebound, but the real bottom only comes when most lose faith. Ask yourself, do you still expect this rally to last?

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

In this situation, I still suggest staying cautious about good news. My over a decade of investing experience taught me that good news in a bear market easily turns bad, and the final pullback is often suffocating.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Capital is taking a defensive stance rather than actively attacking. Yesterday's surge in application software and pharma stocks proves this. Fortunately, we positioned ourselves ahead of time.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Falling oil and gold prices, semiconductor valuation compression, and rumors of a Thursday rate hike are conflicting market forces. Under these conditions, the market shows chaotic volatility.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Over the weekend, South Korea announced a $9500B tech deal with US Big Tech, with SK Hynix taking about $7500B, giving its fundamentals a massive boost. Meanwhile, Broadcom intends to hand Samsung a 5-year partnership for 2nm foundry, HBM, and advanced packaging, which is huge for Samsung's comeback in the AI ASIC supply chain.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Easing tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend saw the US pause 13 straight nights of bombing, while Iran agreed to stop retaliating if the pause continues. De-escalating geopolitical risks should ease market fears over supply chain disruptions and runaway inflation. Crude oil futures, which surged earlier on safe-haven buying and inflation fears, now face short-term profit taking. Meanwhile, gold shows signs of rebounding.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting this week. Market expectations for a rate hike have heated up rapidly compared to a week ago (according to CME Group FedWatch tool / fed funds futures data, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 38%), though mainstream economists still expect no rate hikes for the entire year. Under the new forward guidance framework of "no prior whispering," the policy trajectory has become increasingly complex, and interest rates may remain higher for longer

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

This week, US equities face their heaviest wave of earnings tests from tech giants. The market will focus closely on Microsoft's Azure growth rate, Meta's advertising business and AI capital expenditures, Amazon's AWS growth, and Apple's gross margin performance amid rising memory costs. These metrics will directly determine market confidence in the sustainability of growth across the AI sector

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Chatting with some friends about gold this morning, I figured it would bounce from around 4055 up to the 4085 to 4090 zone, peaking and turning lower near 4082, but still leaving over 15 points of upside. Trading 1 lot means a one point move equals 100 dollars in profit. We are sitting right around 4050 now, which is basically the average price over the last two days, so it is not a prime entry spot. Get your demo accounts loaded up, and I will drop the trade signal as soon as a setup appears.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Judging from gold's price action, we may see a distinct trend shift today, and we will execute our day trades only after the trend becomes clear.

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

So far, our position in CGNX is down only two percent, whereas the broader semiconductor sector has plunged over thirty percent, making it one of our key hedging tools. Sticking with it may not have made you money, but it has kept you from taking losses

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Pre-market oil prices are retreating, and gold is stabilizing and rebounding around the 4000 level. Samsung and SK Hynix have positive news, Intel is backed by earnings tailwinds, and Oracle faces order contract complications alongside positive developments. These catalysts may stimulate an oversold rebound today. Avoid chasing the rally during spike phases; instead, observe the market reaction after the initial surge. If prices retrace back to the breakout point, it indicates weak rebound momentum, and caution should be exercised against a Black Friday scenario

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

https://t.co/cjmJK8oqPd

[Lucas⚖️ （parody） @LB_Report02]

Today's action in the Philadelphia SOX is absolutely critical. If it wipes out yesterday's gains, that would be a terrible signal pointing straight to a fresh wave of sell offs Remember, Tuesday's rebound was supposed to be the prime window for chip stocks to stage a real recovery. But if today's drop is too severe and dip buyers fail to step in during the second half of the session, a 'Black Friday' sell-off is almost inevitable