Lucas

running @majorkeycap | big bets, deep research

[Lucas @LDuennes]

It's truly astounding to see, how much tribalism is still a thing in crypto – and this gets amplified in a bear market.

I want everyone to win, but most of all, I want to establish sound valuation frameworks for the assets we so much care about – let's leave Fugazi crypto behind.

[Husker @husker_eth]

Luca believes getting that loan book below a key threshold would unlock significant floor buying from holders with size. Community effort, not something Igloo can solve alone.

[Husker @husker_eth]

Luca's call to action: the Blur loan book is the biggest drag on floor price. If you have loans there, refinance on Gondi or close them. Large buyers are sidelined subsidizing loans instead of sweeping.

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

Crypto should move past token incentives.

Not only do they not work, they actively encourage and reward your WORST customers.

They also make your token go down, which is the worst marketing you could ever ask for.

Incentives are actively damaging in almost all cases.

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence. Whether it’s 3 or 10 years; it’s over and we need to accept that

The only thing that matters is how quickly blockchain developers recognize that they need to bake in cryptographic mutability into their networks

This of course requires an entire reimagining of how these systems work. Today the crypto is hardcoded in. That will have to change

ETH people have already figured this out. Everyone else seems to be petrified in fear. Unless something changes quickly ETHBTC will start to reflect the divergence in prioritisation

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

People in crypto REALLY want the ability to buy ownership in early stage companies with zero friction.

The sentiment issue in crypto has zero to do with "the death of cypherpunk values."

If 10-15 great companies started to win and the tokens ripped, it would fix every issue.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

the single best Ethereum research product is soon coming – and I'm not exaggerating when I say this

the best, stunning visuals to understand Ethereum

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

Circle is almost -20% down today.

Everyone’s discussing it, yet hardly anyone actually understands what’s going on.

The new hints on the Clarity Act potentially not allowing yield passthrough is a classic sell the news event. Insiders have been frontrunning this for 6 weeks while $CRCL pulled a 3x from the bottom.

But here’s what people are missing : this is massively bullish for Circle.

Their entire business model is built on keeping the yield generated by their $USDC supply. The Clarity Act essentially gives them a regulatory moat to maintain that model, while conveniently being able to say they’d love to pass the yield through but regulators won’t let them.

The dump was then accelerated by the news that Tether is pursuing a full audit, which threatens Circle’s positioning in the US and Western markets as the tightly regulated, more trusted alternative to $USDT.

The race between Tether and Circle just got a lot more interesting.

That said, I believe the Clarity Act will ultimately allow both companies to grow massively, so the fight for first and second place is secondary to me for the next few years.

Hope this was helpful. Couldn’t stand the uninformed takes anymore claiming this is somehow bearish for Circle.

If anything, this might be a great entry for anyone with a time horizon longer than that of a goldfish.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

I'm a die-hard pudgy supporter, bought all the high-end collectibles, stacking multiple boxes of TCGs, onboarded all my friends to the brand, NFTs and token - I even wrote the most comprehensive research report on pudgy with +100 pages based on the "cute IP" and "IP tokenization" thesis (even before $PENGU).

I continue to be a secular bull on it, due to its enormous brand power and future Pokémon-level status. But although I saw potential in the token in the beginning and publicly cheered it on (called the +1000% move in summer of 2025), the inherent value of it remains unquestioned.

I think it was the right call to launch it, but if you want to give it inherent value and make it the best vehicle to allocate towards pudgy (which also helps marketing it to ETF buyers), you have to convert it into tokenized equity.

I am my penguin and my penguin is me.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

pengu needs to become pudgy's tokenized equity

there is no other way for it to ever break ATHs, besides that – I'm very certain that pudgy will reach 9-figure annual revenue by EOY 2027, but the token will suffer

[Lucas @LDuennes]

This week's has now almost culminated and we're seeing total weekly flows below its rolling reference rate for the second time in a row - not good.

I've performed final statistical analysis on these effects and my newly coined valuation metrics this week and this will be the best way to value $ETH on a fundamental basis - can't wait to share it with you guys!

[Lucas @LDuennes]

Ethereum's implied fair value is currently in contraction regime, with both its level being below average and momentum slowing down.

However, this is a daily view and can change quickly, as you see with the path of the past 90 days. We just need to see total flows being picked up.

This data is observable in the upcoming 'Ethereum Valuation Terminal' by @majorkeycap, coming soon!

[Lucas @LDuennes]

@sjdedic the entire financial world will move on-chain, it's inevitable

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

Digital commodities are not securities.
Digital collectibles are not securities.
Digital tools are not securities.
Stablecoins are not securities.

The only assets considered digital securities are traditional securities that have been tokenized.

I think most people don’t realize how big of a deal the SEC’s statement yesterday actually is. It’s essentially something we’ve been asking for and anticipating for over a decade.

At this point, there are no real regulatory barriers left.

Only excuses.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

Wow, so many great products hidden throughout this episode, I hope to be able to buy them soon online!

[OpenSea @opensea]

Come on a tour of @pudgypenguins HQ with @LucaNetz & @brycent 🐧

We covered it all — trading cards, fresh merch, the Manchester City collab, and an exclusive first look at the new OpenSea mobile app.

(00:21) — From Takeover to Igloo HQ
(01:11) — From Toddler to Global Brand
(01:36) — NFTs to Retail IP
(02:05) — First Edition Collectibles
(02:40) — Rallying the Family
(04:40) — PENGU Launch Night Chaos
(05:40) — The "Infidelity" Collectible
(07:05) — Owning the Cultural Moment
(08:20) — New OpenSea Mobile App
(09:02) — Pudgy's TCG Product
(09:11) — Big Box Retail Alpha

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

The rollup idea wasn't wrong, we just don't need 20 gen purpose ones.

The end state market structure is 2-3 vertically integrated gen purpose frameworks and many app or sector specific rollups.

[Mippo 🟪 @MikeIppolito_]

Scale the L1

[Kpaxs @Kpaxs]

There is a specific kind of intelligence that is almost never celebrated but is consistently effective: the intelligence that recognizes when the game being played is not the game worth playing.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

Here's another chart, highlighting how underutilized Ethereum's blobs are at the moment: blobs were close to price discovery in mid-Nov'25 but since then have trended lower again, resulting in minuscule blob fees.

What you see here is the ability to chart $ETH-related metrics on @tradingview's charting engine, but with much sleeker UI/UX, directly in the "Ethereum Valuation Terminal" by @majorkeycap.

You can even split metrics into multiple panes, and add indicators to everything - this unlocks an entirely new level of depth and research, coming very soon!

[Lucas @LDuennes]

Here's the core reason, why Ethereum abandoning the rollup-centric roadmap and focusing on the L1 is the right decision: DA base fees are minuscule in contribution to $ETH's overall flows and demand.

The only viable way to increase ETH demand is to bring on-chain activity and users back home to the L1.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

As you see, I've modeled a continued fall in fees of about -16.50% per month to 2,432 ETH per month until Sept'26. This would mean $ETH's total flows are even below the recent low from Dec'26 of 3,524 ETH.

But this should be fairly priced in at about $1,329 when using a 6-month reference rate (though 9M and 12M prices are slightly lower at $1,231-$1,095).

I will present the detailed calculation around the Implied Fair Value for Ether when the "Valuation Terminal" gets launched, but just wanted you guys to show already.

[Lucas @LDuennes]

My conviction is slowly building that $ETH will not go significantly below about $1,329 as this cycle's bear market bottom.

But that's not a high conviction bet yet - I am just trying to model this out with the upcoming Ethereum Valuation Terminal by @majorkeycap seen here.