LEAPS Lab

📈 Deep ITM LEAPS | AI | Long-term Investing
🚀 Microsoft · SpaceX · AI Infrastructure
⚡ Leveraging time, not predicting tomorrow
🧠 Research. Patience. Convic

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

$MSFT is not a clean chart right now.

Technicals are weak.
Sentiment is worse.
AI CapEx concerns are real.

But the business is not broken.

Microsoft still owns one of the strongest enterprise distribution layers in the world:
Azure, Office, Teams, GitHub, Windows, Copilot and Foundry.

The key question is not whether Microsoft can build AI.

The real question is whether Microsoft can turn AI infrastructure into long-term free cash flow.

That is what I’m watching.

Not panic.
Not hype.
Just verification.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

The next big robotics winners may not be the loudest “AI robot” stocks.

My current watchlist:

$TSLA — Best shot at scaling humanoid robots, but expectations are already high.

$AMBA — Edge AI chips for robotics, drones, industrial automation and ADAS. My favorite small-cap “picks and shovels” name.

$OUST — Lidar for smart infrastructure, robotics and autonomy. High upside, high risk.

$VPG — Force sensors and strain gauges for robotic touch and control. Great theme, but the stock has already moved hard.

$BBAI — More of a defense AI / government software play, not a pure robotics winner.

My ranking:

Best long-term: $TSLA
Best small-cap idea: $AMBA
Highest upside risk: $OUST
Interesting but extended: $VPG
Least pure robotics play: $BBAI
Robotics will be a major 10-year trend.
But not every stock with “AI” or “robotics” in the story becomes the next $NVDA.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

The next big robotics winners may not be the loudest “AI robot” stocks.

My current watchlist:

$TSLA — Best shot at scaling humanoid robots, but expectations are already high.

$AMBA — Edge AI chips for robotics, drones, industrial automation and ADAS. My favorite small-cap “picks and shovels” name.

$OUST — Lidar for smart infrastructure, robotics and autonomy. High upside, high risk.

$VPG — Force sensors and strain gauges for robotic touch and control. Great theme, but the stock has already moved hard.

$BBAI — More of a defense AI / government software play, not a pure robotics winner.

My ranking:

Best long-term: $TSLA
Best small-cap idea: $AMBA
Highest upside risk: $OUST
Interesting but extended: $VPG
Least pure robotics play: $BBAI
Robotics will be a major 10-year trend.
But not every stock with “AI” or “robotics” in the story becomes the next $NVDA.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

$MSFT technicals still look weak.

But the business is not weak.

Microsoft remains one of the largest free cash flow machines in the world, even while funding massive AI infrastructure buildout.

The market is focused on CapEx pressure.

I’m focused on whether Azure, Foundry, Copilot and enterprise AI can turn that CapEx into long-term cash flow.

Ugly chart.
Elite business.
That’s where research begins.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

$MSFT is not just an OpenAI story.

Claude models from @AnthropicAI are now generally available in Microsoft Foundry, running on @NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems with Quantum-X800 InfiniBand networking.

For enterprises building next-gen agentic AI, this matters:

- more model choice
- Azure-native deployment
- high-performance inference
- lower cost per token
- stronger enterprise AI infrastructure

The market is focused on AI capex.

I’m focused on who controls the distribution layer.

Azure + Foundry + Copilot + GitHub + enterprise customers.

That is why I keep studying $MSFT.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

@leaighnk 生日快乐

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

父亲节宣传片

[Lost Temples™ @LostTemple7]

Proof that dads are always ready! 👏

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

@DearS_o_n 最好的父亲节的宣传片

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

@maru___marusu 卧槽

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

$MSFT at ~$368 with ~20x forward PE feels like the market is giving me a boring company at an interesting price.

And boring is good.

Boring prints cash.
Boring renews contracts.
Boring sits inside every enterprise budget.
The best stocks rarely scream.
They compound quietly.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

$MSFT at $368, forward PE around 20.

This is not some collapsing meme stock.
This is Microsoft selling enterprise software, cloud, AI infrastructure, security, GitHub, LinkedIn, Xbox, and Copilot.
The market is pricing it like growth is dead.

I disagree.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

微软不一定要把 Windows 7 原封不动带回来。
但它必须把 Windows 7 曾经带给用户的感觉带回来：层次、质感、辨识度，以及让人真的想打开电脑的欲望。

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

Most people trade options like lottery tickets.

I use LEAPS differently.

Not for gambling.
Not for weekly calls.
Not for 10x overnight dreams.

I use Deep ITM LEAPS to gain long-term exposure to great businesses with less capital.

High Delta.
Long expiration.
Lower theta pressure.
More stock-like behavior.

My rule:

If I wouldn’t own the stock for 3-5 years,
I shouldn’t buy the LEAPS.

LEAPS are not “cheap stocks.”
They are leveraged bets with an expiration date.

Used wrong: they destroy you.
Used right: they can amplify patience.

$MSFT

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

Deep ITM LEAPS are not magic.

They are a tool.

Bad company + LEAPS = disaster.
No risk control + LEAPS = disaster.
Short-term mindset + LEAPS = disaster.

But:

Great business.
Long duration.
High Delta.
Reasonable entry.
Controlled position size.

That can be powerful.

I don’t use LEAPS to gamble.
I use them to amplify long-term conviction.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

My LEAPS exit framework:

I don’t hold blindly until expiration.

I consider trimming when:
• Stock reaches my target zone
• Delta becomes too high
• Valuation becomes stretched
• Thesis weakens
• Better opportunity appears
• Time to expiration gets too short

LEAPS need a plan.

Without a plan, leverage becomes emotion.
And emotion is usually expensive.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

I don’t chase LEAPS.

My favorite setup:

Great company.
Temporary fear.
Valuation compression.
Long-term thesis unchanged.

That is when Deep ITM LEAPS become interesting.

The goal is not to buy excitement.

The goal is to buy quality when the market is tired of it.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

Why $MSFT fits my LEAPS framework:

• Azure keeps growing
• Microsoft 365 has massive enterprise lock-in
• Copilot creates a new monetization layer
• AI infrastructure demand is real
• Cash flow remains strong
• Balance sheet is durable

I don’t buy $MSFT LEAPS because I think it will moon next week.

I buy because I believe Microsoft can compound through the AI cycle.

That is the difference between gambling and positioning.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

My LEAPS checklist:

I only consider Deep ITM LEAPS when the company has:

• Strong free cash flow
• Durable moat
• Pricing power
• Long-term growth
• Low bankruptcy risk
• Massive ecosystem
• Real earnings, not just hype

That is why I prefer quality mega-cap compounders.

For me, LEAPS are not for weak companies.
They are for great companies temporarily mispriced.

[LEAPS Lab @leapsLab]

Deep ITM LEAPS are still risky.

Never forget:

• They can expire worthless
• They lose value if the stock falls hard
• They require patience
• Liquidity matters
• Spreads can be wide
• You still need an exit plan

LEAPS are not safer because they expire later.

They are only better if your thesis is right,
your position size is sane,
and you survive the drawdowns.