LEAPS Trading

Markets & macro. I use LEAPS for leverage, asymmetric upside & risk management. Real trades, real portfolio. Historian | RE + LEAPS Investor | MBA

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

Among the ~40 companies below, I will most likely get 80% to 300% returns on over $1M invested from 5-10 of them, with 1-3 being big gains (500% to 2500%).

I may also come across (a) a crestfallen company perfect for a buy-the-dip or (b) a rising Small Cap ignored by all that will give me massive gains like in previous years.

I paid $10 to let a few thousand people have a chance to see my watchlist of about 40 companies for LEAPS investing. I've learned a lot on @X and thought it might be helpful to give back a little.

At the same time, I wanted to provide something concrete for people to see. Maybe I won't post trades every week. LEAPS are a long-term investment tool, after all. And even though I plan to sell some positions on a short-term basis (< 365 days) to capture gains of 40%+ or to sell previously purchased contracts, I typically am not super active with trades.

I have roughly doubled my money in 5 of the last 7 years, with 2022-2023 being the exception when I worked two full-time jobs, managed RE renovations on two properties, and was a full-time MBA student. I recently quit my day job to focus on investing.

A small part of my leisure time is gamifying @X. And in that vein, let it be known that I plan to make $1M+ in realized gains in 2027!

Timestamp it. Hold me accountable.

And then let's revisit this post in 2027 to see if I doubled my money and how much was gained from the list of ~40 below!

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

~40 companies I like and prices that will make me pull the trigger on new LEAPS contracts or stock purchases* (for DRIPs & selling puts):

$META Below 550
$SPCX Below 120
$MSFT Below 475
$GOOGL Below 340
$AVGO Below 350
$MRVL Below 220
$NVDA Below 200
$AMD Below 450
$INTC Below 85
$AAPL Below 290
$AMZN Below 225
$PLTR Below 150
$TSM Below 375
$ASML Below 1600
$MU Below 875
$SKHY Below 145
$SNDK Below 1350
$VRT Below 240
$LRCX Below 290
$CRDO Below 200
$NOW Below 110
$ALAB Below 260
$NOK Below 9
$SHOP Below 120
$SOFI Below 17
$IREN Below 35
$INOD Below 50
$NBIS Below 200
$WMT Below 100
$BB Below 7
$ARM Below 220
$KTOS Below 45
$PANW Below 300
$ANET Below 185
$GLW Below 130
$GEV Below 910
$NKE Below 30*
$PFE Below 25*
$V Below 360*
$MA Below 560*
$AXP Below 320*

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

$LRCX
$RMBS (something small that has potential to explode)

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

At some point in the next five years there will likely be margin stabilization and then gradual compression for $NVDA, $MU and $SKHY. They will still be very profitable, just not with mind-blowing gains.

By that point hyperscalers will likely have more benefits than costs compared to today.

So who else is most likely to benefit?

It’s still the picks-and-shovels play until proven wrong.

If you are a long-term buy and hold person, it might be a good idea to start building your positions now.

These are the 8 I’m most interested in:

$MRVL $CRDO $ALAB
$ANET $VRT $AVGO

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@Crypolitics_ @NoLimitGains The govt price control idea is your idea. I never brought that up. You’re talking to yourself on this point.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@NoLimitGains If the govt lets sellers transfer a mortgage to the new property, the market gets unlocked. Sellers would pop up. Sellers would be buyers too. We could all pay musical chairs together!

We just need DJ Mr T (Donald J Trump) to play his hit list and keep the party going. YMCA!

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

Transfer a balance from one credit card at one bank to a credit card at another bank. The mechanics of the process exist.

Debt from Bank A transferred to Bank B. That’s the process. If one type of debt can transfer, why not another?

For a credit card, it is unsecured debt. For a mortgage it’s secured debt. That’s where a third party might be needed (govt) to facilitate the process and make it legally defined. Currently I doubt there are laws that would allow or disallow this process. So from a legal standpoint, the govt is probably needed to clarify the process.

In terms of it happening at all, there is likely nothing stopping banks from doing it on their own. But why would banks undercut their profits voluntarily? People would want a “mortgage transfer” for the same reason they would want a “balance transfer” on a credit card — better rates/terms.

So if the govt isn’t involved to facilitate the process I doubt it will happen.

Banks are willing to undercut each other on credit card rates because the balance transfer has a fee or has a special rate that expires within a year.

With a mortgage that transfers, it’s not such an easy process. Mortgage underwriting takes a week or longer. Getting the inspection and appraisal is time consuming. And then if the homeowner defaults, the bank has an asset it doesn’t really want (it just wants more cash).

So the govt would probably be needed.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@Barchart Interesting. $GEV is on my watchlist to buy when the price is right. I’ll have to keep in mind that it might not drop enough.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@JUST_KAWS I hope so. Jensen has set the stage. Now $MRVL can close the game.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@jukan05 Yeah, that was my first thought. Jensen outmaneuvered $AMD and the XPU crews.

His relationships with $SKH and $TSM seem tight.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@optionscjp Treat the market like an ATM! I like it.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@StockMarketNerd That is impressive. I’ve never heard of a major company doing such a thing within a year.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

“The AI Bubble” is a term that defies history. If it’s meant in a simplistic manner about the stock market’s fluctuations, that’s acceptable.

But if we look at history to understand what will happen to the economy at large, we are in the beginning of a boom.

The transition from a CPU world to a GPU/XPU world has just begun. Social scientists and historians study these things.

Hyperscalers are the first adopters. The next wave is neocloud, sovereign AI, and companies here and there tests applications. AI adoption is far from ubiquitous.

It will last 10-50 years more. There will be startups, new tools, new technologies, new possibilities. Agentic AI and robots and automation are just the beginning.

Talk of memory demand dying off and GPU/XPU demand faltering assumes the change will just stop. It’s already unleashed and in motion. We can’t stop it even if we wanted.

Let’s just buy the right companies and make some money.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

The next wave of demand is on schedule. This is basically the argument of Dan Ives for over a year: he calls it people waiting outside the night club. First the hyperscalers, then others building data centers, then sovereign AI, eventually Europe and more in East Asia, etc.

The technology adoption curve is at work. Hyperscalers are first in line because they can afford it and GPUs increase their earnings and potential.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@FlasheurInvest Les résultats sont impressionnants mais le marché est trop nonchalant.

Après une petite chute vers $204 $NVDA est de nouveau vers $210 où l’on est commencé.

Les investisseurs veulent écouter les paroles et les interprétations de Jensen Huang et son équipe.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@optionscjp Jensen needs to use some of that sweet talk and say how marvelous $MRVL is!

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@RealNickMugalli Back to where we started — $209-$210! It’s all about what they say in the conference call.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@optionscjp Nice buy! I just watched the price go down and come back to where we started.

Round 2, conference call!

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@MMatters22596 Ladies and gentlemen, it was exciting. But we are back at where we started —$209-$210!

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

$NVDA Q2 FY27 is absurd growth at massive scale:

Revenue: $96.2B (+106% YoY)
Data Center — Hyperscale: $48.7B vs $24.2B
AI Cloud/Enterprise: $40.3B vs $16.9B
GAAP Gross Margin: 75.0% vs 72.4%
Operating Income: $63.7B (+124%)
Net Income: $59.7B (+126%)
GAAP EPS: $2.46 (+128%)
Free Cash Flow: $21.3B vs $13.5B
Capital returned: $26B

The numbers that stand out to me:

Revenue +106%, while operating income grew +124% and EPS +128%.

That’s operating leverage.

And despite more than doubling revenue, gross margin actually expanded 260 bps to 75%.

NVDA isn’t just growing extraordinarily fast. It’s becoming more profitable at scale while generating enormous FCF and returning capital to shareholders.

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the world of securities, $MRVL is making a mini move past $250.

$SKHY above $160, $CRDO trying to push last $230, and other semis all moving a bit.

$NVDA provided enough confirmation that the game of data center construction will continue?

[LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading]

@pequityresearch That’s bad news for XPUs and $AMD.

The numbers look good.