Learn_The_Process

Investor , Market disciple ,

Mantra - Compounding is the superpower.

Consistency + time always beats brilliance + short bursts

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

$SPX $QQQ $SOXX

Rough tape into Monday. S&P is ~2% under its record, Nasdaq just had its worst week since June, and chips led the slide. Dow is up on the week, so it's rotation, not panic. Bulls need 7,650 to hold. 👀

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

CPI beat to the upside across the board: headline 3.7% YoY, core 2.6%. Gas is up 34% over the year and airfares are up 22%. It’s not just the pump, though. Core goods prices are rising at the fast pace since January 2025. Fed hike odds for Oct 28 just got more interesting. 👀$SPX

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

2026 isn’t the typical script. The S&P is already +15% YTD, which is unusual for a midterm year, with the 10-yr at 5.2% and oil near $100. CPI tomorrow and the Fed on Oct 27-28 are the real tests. Seasonality is a tailwind, not a forecast. $SPX

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Big one: CPI at 8:30 ET, last read before the Fed decides Oct 28. Banks (BAC, MS) report right after the bell. 10-yr near 5.2% and S&P within 0.1% of a record means a hot number has room to hurt. Cool print and the Q4 rally story stays intact. 👀

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Goldman kicks off bank earnings with a beat: Q3 EPS $17.01 vs ~$16.42 expected, revenue $18.7B (+23% YoY) on a strong Global Banking & Markets quarter. A good start for a sector down ~12% from its August high. JPM and Citi next, then CPI tomorrow (3.6% est). $GS $JPM $XLF $SPX

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Earnings + inflation week. Banks report today, CPI Wednesday (3.6% expected). Hot print = Fed hike odds jump. S&P at 7,811 vs. 7,819 record, yields ~5.2%. Q3 S&P EPS growth is estimated at 30.6%, so the bar is high. 👀

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

S&P 500 at 7,778, back under the 7,800 line it first closed above on Tuesday. 10-yr still near 5.3%, Brent over $100, and the rally has leaned hard on AI names. Reclaim 7,800 and the breakout holds. Fail and Tuesday’s record starts to look like a false start. $SPX $NVDA $QQQ

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Weak jobs (+29K) cooled rate-hike fears and the S&P closed Friday at 7,722, less than 1% from its August high. Nasdaq is near records and tech is leading. Hold 7,700 and the record is back in play this week. $SPX $QQQ

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Dow/S&P futures slip after Trump rebuffs Iran sanction relief talk,NDX pops as tech acts as the risk-off refuge — classic index divergence. Brent $107, rate/inflation jitters . Watch if mega tech can lift the tape or rolls over into selling at the open. $QQQ $SPY $DJI $USO

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Down day, but $NVDA still +2.7% on a $150B buyback. S&P is only ~1% off Friday's 7,743 close. If yields stop climbing and oil cools, 7,700 comes back fast. Bulls need the 10-yr to relax. $SPX $NVDA $QQQ

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Yields up, oil up, stocks down. Tuesday's setup: 10-yr near 5.2%, Brent near $98, S&P sitting just under 7,700. Bulls need yields to cool. Bears want a break of Monday's lows. 👀

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Bond yields cooling off today — 10yr back to 5.17% after paring a 2-day, 20bp+ surge. Brent under $105 as US-Iran negotiators explore a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. $SPY futures +0.4%, chipmakers leading, $DXY snapping its win streak. $QQQ $TLT $USO

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Worth noting: "deal is close" headlines have cycled for months without resolution, so markets have grown skeptical of the rhetoric alone . Next week NFP + PCE (Thu/Fri) . $QQQ $SPY

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

NFP + PCE hit 5%+ yields, oil ~$105, fresh "deal near" vs "deciding mode" mixed signals on Iran/Hormuz. de-escalation (not just headlines) can crush oil giving risk assets relief; rhetoric only keeps yields sticky and caps upside. Data still d swing factor. $SPY $TLT $USO $QQQ

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Markets down today: Dow -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.8%, Russell -0.4%. 10yr yield hit 5.11% (highest since '07) on oil above $105 (Iran/Hormuz risk) + Oracle's data center force majeure spooking AI names. Bond selloff, not stocks, is driving this. $SPY $QQQ $TLT $USO

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Fed hiked 25bp on 9/16 (first since 2023), unanimous 12-0, rates now 3.75-4.00%. Dot plot flags one more hike by year-end. Stocks shrugged off the headline but faded on Warsh's hawkish tone. Next test: Oct 27-28 FOMC. Watch the 2yr yield, not the index. $SPY $DXY $TLT

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

🚨 MARKET ALERT: Fed just delivered a hawkish hike — 25bps to 3.75%-4%, first in 3 years (12-0 unanimous). Warsh: inflation "remains elevated”

10Y near 5% is the level to watch — breaks above could pressure tech

Not financial advice, just watching the tape 👀

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Fed decision tomorrow $SPY $DXY $TLT
What to actually watch tomorrow:
1️⃣ Vote split (unanimous vs dissents)
2️⃣ Dot plot shift for '26/'27
3️⃣ Warsh's tone
4️⃣ 2yr yield — real verdict

Hike vs hold matters less than the guidance. Trade the vol, not a thesis.

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

🔔 Market update: Fed hikes rates 25bps to 3.75%-4%, first hike in 3 years. Signals one more hike coming in 2026.

📉 Dow -1.5% | S&P 500 -0.8% | Nasdaq -0.4%

10Y yields near 20-yr highs, oil still elevated on Mideast tensions. #StockMarket #Fed

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

Market takeaway: the tape remains constructive, but selectivity matters.

AI/SaaS strength is broadening. Favor quality growth + improving FCF + strong relative strength, while hunting for fundamentally strong names where price hasn’t caught up yet. $SPY $QQQ

[Learn_The_Process @Learn_d_Process]

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