Jean-Philippe Serbera

Ex-London Prop Trader turned Finance Professor 🎓 TSE+Univ Montpellier

Veteran investor in Crypto | Academic bringing street-smart analysis to markets 🔍

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

Who am I? My journey from trader to professor and why I HODL Bitcoin.
I’m Jean-Philippe Serbera, aka @LeFrenchBitcoin. Ex-trader in London, now Finance Prof 🎓. My story blends street-smart markets with academic passion. Let’s dive in! A thread 🧵👇
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Finance

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

$NASDAQ rejection typically means down move will continue. Expect 10% drop for a start.
#Cryptos $BTC might follow.

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

@nayibbukele Good run so far 🫡

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

Le Financial Times rapporte que l'Iran demande un paiement d'un dollar par barril transitant par le détroit d'Ormouz.
Là où ça devient intéressant c'est que ce paiement est demandé en cryptomonnaie et en particulier en #bitcoin !
Si ça devait se matérialiser, la demande institutionnelle et l'adoption se verraient galvanisées.
Est-ce que l'Iran va devenir le meilleur ami des spéculateurs et des hodlers ?
https://t.co/GC4q3MxiBd

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

@RaoulGMI Risk assets will eventually catch up guys including bitcoin. #HODL

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

$BTC: as mentionned early this week, the #Iran negotiations weren't conclusive. I now think that the strike is priced for #Bitcoin. The question is now if the retaliation will push the conflict to escalation.
@krugermacro

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

$BTC: Thursday's deal on Iran is probably not yet in the price. If no deal (most likely), expect US strike over the weekend. Maxpain on #bitcoin will follow but that might be the final leg down so #Hodl

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

The panic is likely flushed. Weekly RSI below 30 for the first time since mid 2022. But the macro (Warsh limbo, government shutdown delaying data) means patience beats conviction right now.
DCA continues everyday, size $100/day (I feel confident with that).

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

Monday Macro:
BTC opens the week at ~$71K. Up 16% from Thursday's $61K low. The weekend was quiet, with a suspicious sunday pump. Let's talk about what matters this week.
Three things I'm watching 🧵

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

1. Warsh. Nominated Jan 30 to replace Powell (May). Historically hawkish, but now in favor of easing in 2026 (so less than expected). Nomination still on hold so uncertainty for now
2. ETF flows. $1.7B out last week (CoinShares). $1B net out YTD. Yet, Thursday's record $3.2B in realized losses smells like capitulation. If flows stabilize this week, that's your signal.
3. The $69K (yes 69 😁) level. BTC is sitting on its 2021 ATH. First time this cycle. Old ATHs historically act as support.

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

@krugermacro ICOs are like investing in business during the industrial revolution but on much larger scale. The 24/7 availability of cryptos made the rush extreme but also led to genuine successes.

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

@theUMreal If WW3 is about to break I wouldn't order my pizzas from Domino's

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

@alifarhat79 🤣

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

6/6
What I'm doing: DCA zone activated below $70K. Not calling the bottom. Managing risk. Size small. Think big. Stay patient...

More macro × crypto analysis coming. Follow if you want signal over noise.

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

$BTC just dropped 50% from ATH. Media screaming "crypto winter."
I've traded crypto through 2021-2022, and now this. Here's what the panic is missing. 🧵👇

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

5/6
What I see that the fear doesn't price in:
• Stablecoin market cap near ATH
• ETF infrastructure still intact
• MiCA live in Europe
• Institutional plumbing keeps building
Bear markets kill speculation. They don't kill infrastructure!

[Jean-Philippe Serbera @LeFrenchBitcoin]

The latest bitcoin article in the @FT completely lacks of objective arguments. Just a residue of usual fud.
Confidence is ebbing? Maybe! But how do you know, any survey, any objective study @jemimajoanna?
You guys will forge your own opinion.
#HODL #Bitcoin