Le Macro, PhD

PhD Economist
Finance & Risk Management
Bitcoin cycles, liquidity & macro signals
Personal research only. Not financial advice

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Bullish on $WLD right now at $0.2434.

Price and market cap are near all-time lows, while the team keeps expanding development.

The market sentiment is extremely negative, but that’s often where the best asymmetric opportunities appear.

Buy when no one wants to buy.

Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@gbhar6674 it's a classic definition of scam

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Reminder for WLD holders:

This is a real risk.

Even if Tools for Humanity becomes very successful, that does not necessarily mean ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 will pump.

Investing in Tools for Humanity and buying ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 are not the same thing.

Same logic as Binance and binancecoin:native.
- If you invest in Binance equity, you own part of Binance.
- If you buy binancecoin:native, you do not own Binance. You own the ecosystem token.

Same with World:
- Tools for Humanity = private company building parts of World infrastructure.
- ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 = token of World Network.

TFH equity investors bet on company value: products, revenue, partnerships, services, and maybe a future IPO.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 holders bet on token value capture: World ID adoption, World Chain activity, governance, utility, demand, and supply dynamics.

The key question for ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 holders is not only:
“Will World ID succeed?”

The real question is:
“If World ID succeeds, how much value flows back to ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753?”

That is the whole game.

I am bullish on WLD, but this risk must be understood clearly.

Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@gbhar6674 Yes, that is true. I got burned by $MCO back in 2020 when they announced that terrible $MCO - $CRO token swap. Fookkk!!!
After that, I never used the CryptoCom app again.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

All the best I can wish for myself as a $WLD holder is that World and $WLD follow the Binance– $BNB relationship.

But the risk is that it becomes more like Crypto_com–MCO or Energy Web–$EWT.
- In the $MCO case, the original token was eventually replaced by $CRO.
- In the $EWT case, the project and ecosystem may continue, but token value capture and market demand have not been strong enough for holders.

That is the risk for $WLD holders too:
- World ID can succeed.
- Tools for Humanity can succeed.

But $WLD still needs real value capture from that success.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Who is responsible for $WLD price?

Nobody can guarantee the price.

Not Tools for Humanity.
Not World Foundation.
Not a16z.
Not Sam Altman.
Not market makers.
Not exchanges.
The market decides the price.
But some actors can strongly influence the conditions around price:
Tools for Humanity builds products and adoption.
World Foundation manages parts of the ecosystem, token distribution, grants, and governance direction.
Investors and insiders may influence supply pressure through unlocks and selling behavior.

Exchanges and market makers influence liquidity.

Users, developers, and apps create real demand.

So $WLD price depends on the balance between:

- adoption + utility + demand
versus
- unlocks + sell pressure + weak value capture.

That is why $WLD holders must understand one thing clearly:

A successful company does not automatically mean a successful token.

For $WLD to pump sustainably, the token itself must capture value from World ID and World Network growth.

That is the whole risk.

Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

a16z exposure to World is not only one simple bet.

Publicly reported information shows:
1. Worldcoin raised $25M in 2021, with a16z among the investors. Some reports say this round was led by a16z.
2. Tools for Humanity later raised $115M Series C in 2023, led by Blockchain Capital, with participation from a16z crypto, Bain Capital Crypto, and others.
3. In May 2025, World announced a $135M WLD token sale to a16z and Bain Capital Crypto.

So a16z appears to have both company/project exposure and direct $WLD exposure.

But the exact split is not publicly disclosed.
- We do not know exactly how much equity a16z owns in Tools for Humanity.
- We also do not know exactly how much of the $135M WLD token sale was bought by a16z versus Bain.

That distinction matters.

VCs may benefit from company equity, token exposure, or both.

Normal $WLD holders only hold the token.

Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@Assaf0013 That's the best mindset!

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@Cointelegraph Common, that’s nothing compared to the $8B lost. It’s like losing $1M and then celebrating because you bought back $4.3. ethereum:native

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

FYI: on the short-term timeframe, ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 has hit $0.70.

I’m keeping my eyes on $0.84 now.

Bulls are clearly fighting back, but I still want to see whether this move can hold and continue.

Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 4H update - Short Term!

The structure is still bullish, but short-term momentum is cooling down.

Price rejected around $0.60–$0.61 and is now retesting the breakout zone.

$0.6-$0.61 is a huge sell wall!

Good news
- OBV is still recovering.
- RSI is cooling but remains bullish above 50.
- CVD is still negative, but improving.
For bulls, the mission is simple:
- Hold $0.55–$0.57.
- Then break $0.60–$0.61 again.

Above $0.61, the door opens toward $0.65–$0.70.

Lose $0.55, and this may become only a fake breakout.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@ZAYKCharts I guessed ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 formed a three-drive bottom pattern since it was $0.49
https://t.co/X9o2GZJGlw

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Dear friends, brothers, and even the haters,

Please pay attention: ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 could potentially see a new ATH by the end of this year.

If this 3-drive bottom pattern plays out, WLD may be starting a macro reversal from here.

But a new ATH by the end of 2026 requires a full weekly trend reversal, not just a short-term bounce.

First mission: break $0.58.
Then $1.29.
Then $4.08.
After that, the ATH zone becomes realistic.
Bulls have momentum now, but they still need confirmation.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@Eagle_0X check this out. I made this with python, ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 is lagged behind
https://t.co/GNN9IhrWQD

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

I compared several crypto assets from the day they reached their ATH.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, near:native and dogecoin:native all spent hundreds of days in deep drawdown after their ATHs. But around day 700–850, many of them started to recover strongly and reached local tops.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 is now entering that same time window, but it is still heavily lagging behind.

WLD has shown early signs of recovery recently, but compared with the other assets in this chart, it is still deeply undervalued if it follows a similar post-ATH recovery path.

From a cycle-comparison perspective, WLD is clearly one of the biggest laggards here.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@danhtran68 it's still lagged behind other assets. I made this chart with python
https://t.co/GNN9IhrWQD

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

I compared several crypto assets from the day they reached their ATH.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, near:native and dogecoin:native all spent hundreds of days in deep drawdown after their ATHs. But around day 700–850, many of them started to recover strongly and reached local tops.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 is now entering that same time window, but it is still heavily lagging behind.

WLD has shown early signs of recovery recently, but compared with the other assets in this chart, it is still deeply undervalued if it follows a similar post-ATH recovery path.

From a cycle-comparison perspective, WLD is clearly one of the biggest laggards here.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@MarkETHreal I use Python to make this analysis, it may help you guys
https://t.co/GNN9IhrWQD

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

I compared several crypto assets from the day they reached their ATH.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, near:native and dogecoin:native all spent hundreds of days in deep drawdown after their ATHs. But around day 700–850, many of them started to recover strongly and reached local tops.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 is now entering that same time window, but it is still heavily lagging behind.

WLD has shown early signs of recovery recently, but compared with the other assets in this chart, it is still deeply undervalued if it follows a similar post-ATH recovery path.

From a cycle-comparison perspective, WLD is clearly one of the biggest laggards here.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

I compared several coins today using weekly OBV, CVD, RSI, Ichimoku cloud, and MA200.

My ranking from most bullish to most bearish:

hyperliquid:native > ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 > near:native > $UNI > $BTC > $ETH > $DOGE > $AVAX

hyperliquid:native is the strongest trend. OBV, CVD, and RSI all confirm bullish momentum, but RSI is already hot.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 has the strongest reversal signal. OBV exploded, CVD turned bullish, and RSI is above 60. Bulls still need to break the weekly cloud.

near:native looks bullish, but OBV and CVD are not as strong as WLD/HYPE yet.

$UNI is waking up, but RSI is still below 50.

$BTC and $ETH are still weak, with negative CVD and RSI below 40. BTC looks slightly better because it is defending key macro support.

$DOGE is still sleeping.

$AVAX is the weakest for now: weak OBV, negative CVD, and RSI near 32.

This is not about hype. It is about relative strength.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

$WLD weekly update:

Bulls are coming back strong.
- Price is up +31% this week and now attacking the weekly Ichimoku cloud.
- OBV has exploded,
- RSI is above 60,
- CVD shows aggressive buyers are finally stepping in.

Key level now: $0.72.
- Above $0.72, I look at $0.84.
- Above $0.84, $1 becomes realistic.
- If rejected, $0.58 retest would be healthy.

Macro reversal signal is here, but bulls still need to break the cloud.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@CryptoTolga_ I posted this when it was $0.49 few days ago
https://t.co/X9o2GZJGlw

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Dear friends, brothers, and even the haters,

Please pay attention: ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 could potentially see a new ATH by the end of this year.

If this 3-drive bottom pattern plays out, WLD may be starting a macro reversal from here.

But a new ATH by the end of 2026 requires a full weekly trend reversal, not just a short-term bounce.

First mission: break $0.58.
Then $1.29.
Then $4.08.
After that, the ATH zone becomes realistic.
Bulls have momentum now, but they still need confirmation.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Right now, 1 bitcoin:native can buy around 100k ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753.

Let’s check back in a few months.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

I compared several crypto assets from the day they reached their ATH.

$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, near:native and dogecoin:native all spent hundreds of days in deep drawdown after their ATHs. But around day 700–850, many of them started to recover strongly and reached local tops.

ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 is now entering that same time window, but it is still heavily lagging behind.

WLD has shown early signs of recovery recently, but compared with the other assets in this chart, it is still deeply undervalued if it follows a similar post-ATH recovery path.

From a cycle-comparison perspective, WLD is clearly one of the biggest laggards here.

Market observation only. Not financial advice.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

@BillAckman @SpaceX lmao, the reason is here, I think
https://t.co/Lx0HAHyjuV

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Musk reportedly owns around 42–43% of SpaceX but controls about 84% of the voting power.

At Tesla, he owns roughly 20–22%, with voting power close to ownership.

So if Tesla and SpaceX ever combined, the valuation ratio would matter massively.

The higher SpaceX is valued, the bigger Musk’s share of the combined company could become.

Not saying this will happen. Just saying the incentive structure is very interesting.
$SPCX $TSLA

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Nah I don’t think governments will ape on ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753. They can force their own citizen to scan iris, same as finger print!
But international organizations could use World ID to distribute UBI or aid directly to verified humans.
That is where the thesis becomes interesting.

[Le Macro, PhD @LeMacroCap]

Do you think that ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 could reach $1,000 one day?