Leo Pejsachowicz

Paris based. Decision theory and experimental econ inclined.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@marginletter @phl43 Les morts de canicule ne sont pas annoncées sur Le Monde, mais estimées à posteriori en utilisant la divergence de mortalité par rapport à la moyenne des années précédentes. Il faudra attendre d'avoir les données sur la mortalité dans cette période, ce qui prend quelques mois.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@phl43 I have seen some discussions in econ/cs (for example based on the shapley value), and from ehat I understand a major concern is that, in the vast majority of cases, the compute cost needed to identify the profit share would be greater than the share value itself.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@sc_cath, this whole discussion is based on that crazy Zucman & co. tax rate calculation method by which any tax paid on income coming from welfare transfers goes on the numerator while the transfer does not go to the denominator, right?

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@phl43 Oh, but aren't those average tax rates the wacky ones that Zucman and co calculate on pre transfer income? Afaik Zucman says: I if earn 10, get 40 in direct transfers from the state and then pay 20% VAT on the 50 I spend my average tax rate is 100% (10/10).

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@sc_cath Et surtout en France !

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@CGollier En fait je trouvais bizarre de n'avoir jamais vu une proposition de ce genre. Mais ça pourrait ce faire de façon partielle, c'est a dire prendre progressivement un peu plus de dette pour permettre au actifs de tourner un partie croissante de leur contribution à la capitalisation

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@albertobisin God forbid ! It would be a disaster for the (already deplorable) state of the policy debate in France.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

Engagement bait, made to climb the algorithm so that more of the intended audience (the econ theorists that can actually understand the argument in the paper referenced below) see the post.
Yoy may not like it, but this is what peak science communication looks like

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@phl43 This is what is so puzzling about the macronie. It seems to have been - among the establishment power holders- the group most willing to take the anti-migration positions that could pay at the ballot box. Still they were unwilling or unable to follow through.
Was it arrogance?

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@novussubsole @phl43 Edited: also, from what I understand in the clip, Mélenchon's position is basically: trust me bro, I'll keep spending other people's (country's) money, but thanks to my new industrial policy we'll grow so much it won't even matter. Does not seem amenable to reforms/austerity

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@novussubsole @phl43 Oh, so your QE would be some ECB commitment to buy newly issued debt at reasonable rates for some time? It still seems to me the orders of magnitude are not there, cost of debt is around 2% gdp, even if you slash interest by half on all foreign+ecb debt you get +/- 0.8% savings?

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@novussubsole @phl43 Bonds come to maturity, new ones have to be issued, at what interest rate do you think markets will be willing to buy those new bonds after France does even your timid version of restructuring?

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

https://t.co/uNyVmD75p9

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@FrancoisGeerolf Sans compter qu'on devrait idéalement calculer la valeur actuelle du CO2 utilisant un «taux d'actualisation» supérieur à 0, vu que une réduction d'émission a beaucoup plus d'impact climatique si elle est fait aujourd'hui plutot que dan 50 ans.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@ElliotLip Actually it feels more like getting involved in a land war in Asia

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@phl43 I think the current consensus among economists is that trade with China did have an impact, but not nearly as important as the one NAFTA had

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@broderly Cool man, though I suspect a Marine Le Pen campaign would have had an even better chance.

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

D81b : Ergodicity

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

??

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

I seem to remember @lastpositivist quoting, I think, Carnap, on how abandoning the measurement of reality is a good way to make space for fascism.

[Charles Haywood @TheWorthyHouse]

Of why the golden calf of Gross Domestic Product should be rejected as a measure of America's flourishing. (Links and audio/video in replies.)

[Leo Pejsachowicz @LeoPesach]

@economeager Reminds me of