Leo Saffin

lsaffin . bsky . social

[Prof Amanda Maycock @acmaycock]

Weak eddy feedback has been proposed to explain the NAO signal-to-noise problem. Our new study highlights limitations of the diagnostic used in some earlier studies and question the interpretation in past work @mckennach @CONSTRAIN_EU @ICASLeeds
https://t.co/lBKWtA541l

[Stella Bourdin @stella_bourdin]

Tropical and Mediterranean Cyclone people (or curious folks), join us online for a very exciting event! 🌀
Numerous seminars and talks will be broadcast online, see the program in the tweet below 📆

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

@AntoniosMamala2 @SimonDriscoll_ @UniRdg_Met If someone could show me how to generate distributions like the schematics drawn in the blog, that would be helpful.

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

@AntoniosMamala2 @SimonDriscoll_ @UniRdg_Met I’ve put the code for generating the “observations” and “ensemble predictions” visualisations on google colab (https://t.co/2BCDD7DAwl). You can crank up the ensemble members and years to get the statistics to converge.

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

I've written a blog for Reading Met. Had a go at explaining the signal-to-noise paradox in terms of a cat playing with a toy. Hopefully it makes sense. Enjoy

[Simon Driscoll @SimonDriscoll_]

"The Signal to Noise Paradox from a Cat’s Perspective" Dr. Leo Saffin (@LeoSaffin) discusses a recently discovered phenomenon in forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales in this week's @UniRdg_Met weekly blog!

https://t.co/dhRkParoTF

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

Since submitting this paper I have shown that similar simulations with parametrized convection produce little or no development in mesoscale organisation. So convection permitting models are still a huge step forward for representing trade-wind cumulus.

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

Just published in a paper in JAMES on my work with simulations of the 2nd Feb case study from #EUREC4A with Adrian Lock, Lorenzo Tomassini, Alan Blyth, Steven Böing, @leifdenby and @JohnMarsham

https://t.co/1UwqSIiBlW

[Leo Saffin @LeoSaffin]

There are still large errors and uncertainties in the cloud fraction and resulting radiation. Highlighting that more work is needed on the representation of convection at these scales if kilometre-scale climate models are to be used to represent cloud feedbacks on climate.