LEVER

The derivatives layer prediction markets never had.
Until now..

Perpetuals on Probability, Unified liquidity, Real LP yield.

You're Early..
BETA July 2026.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

https://t.co/j78jKL47Qa

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@xdotli Lol

[Lauris @lzminsky]

https://t.co/yFN49H22xn

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@lzminsky Damn... our team's been reading your stuff since you published SLAM. Great stuff!!

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Sharing from our conversations and research. Hope this helps. - LEVER Intern

Everyone assumes market makers on live sports markets must have some magic zero-latency feed. they don't.

Data feeds: TV is ~25 seconds behind reality, streams are 45-60+. the fast path is official data . Sportradar and Genius pay leagues for exclusive rights and literally employ thousands of people in stadiums keying in every pitch and point. that feed runs 1-3 seconds behind live.
Even with that feed, the MM is never fastest. For risk management you assume someone always has 300ms on you. So the strategy starts exploiting the one structural gift sports gives you: probabilities move in discrete jumps (goal, TD, break point), not continuously like a stock. all the adverse selection is concentrated in known moments.

General strategies: Starting with making the markets tight prior to the start of the game. Then once the game starts the playbook is dead-ball quoting. Tight and deep during timeouts and between pitches, pull everything the instant the ball is live. Same logic as a sportsbook suspending in-play markets, just automated. Quote small so a pickoff costs little, quote wide enough that recreational flow pays for the snipes you do eat, and score every counterparty's markouts so you fade the accounts that keep hitting you 1 second before the price moves.

The MM's edge isn't speed. it's knowing exactly when not to be there. Whilst still being rewarded via the MM rewards program. On top of that there is the taker latency. Although, surprisingly from our conversations there's a surprising amount of prop desks doing directional strategies on top of this.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@0xMiaWallace Lol. glad you like our thesis

[LEVER @LeverPM]

https://t.co/j78jKL47Qa

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@0xCapybar We'll fix that soon. Although our focus is more on the non-sports side.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Traders on prediction markets.

What are your biggest issues with the space?

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@lzminsky Would love your input on our thesis published as an article on our page. Don't want to post it here and be spammy. ^^

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Our team had an internal debate about this months back. Our conclusion was that parimutuel betting and prediction markets are completely different fundamental structures.

1. You can't exit a position till the result of the event is over in Parimutuel bets.
2. By design, the odds on a parimutuel system doesn't allow you to know the moving probability of your earnings until bets close. Meaning you are locked in but dont know how much you'll make till bets close.
3. Parimutuel bets don't motivate someone early on to make a bet. Because they don't get better odds early on and they aren't rewarded for being early.

These are the fundamental characteristics that make the math and incentives completely different to a prediction market.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Will institutions trade prediction markets?

Aside from the fact that institutions like Marex, Jump, Jane Street, and SIG already do. This paper on how credit has already given an answer to this in the past is a great read!

[Lauris @lzminsky]

https://t.co/R9YkbSNi4H

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@edinsoncode The derivatives layer for prediction markets. Check out our thesis. https://t.co/G2lg92ZAkN

[LEVER @LeverPM]

https://t.co/j78jKL47Qa

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@ironspiderXBT Dm'd

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@jaimenovoa Oooooo.... we have one of those~

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Prediction market liquidity isn't thin because the space is early. It's thin because market makers can't hedge inventory, so they quote wide on purpose. Fix the hedging problem and the books fix themselves. Everyone has the causality backwards.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Hot take: leverage would make prediction markets more accurate, not more degenerate. Prices are only as sharp as the payoff for correcting them. Right now fading a mispriced longshot pays 5% over weeks, fully collateralized. That's why lazy prices survive.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

https://t.co/j78jKL47Qa

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@SteveFlanders22 Honestly, still super early and this is right on with our thesis as well.

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@wise_the_great_ Heh. Pretty early~

[LEVER @LeverPM]

Chairman of the CFTC on Prediction Markets

[Mike Selig @ChairmanSelig]

Just like we saw with the advent of crypto, the use cases for prediction markets, while seemingly narrow in their nascent stages, promise to give rise to myriad products and services that help Americans hedge risk and aggregate information.

📺 More on @MorningsMaria 👇

[LEVER @LeverPM]

@negligible_cap What about hedging the prediction market positions themselves?