James Lieow

Views my own | RTs not endorsement | Not financial advice

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices rise above $107/barrel after the Houthis say they attacked a Saudi Arabian military site.

US oil prices are now back above $95/barrel.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

HASSETT SAYS WARSH MANAGES UNUSUALLY PARTISAN FEDERAL RESERVE

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP PRESSES VENEZUELA TO KEEP OIL FLOWING

President Trump emphasized continued Venezuelan oil flows during his first meeting with acting President Delcy Rodriguez, Axios reports.

Trump did not demand a date for future elections but stressed their importance as a key step toward Venezuela becoming a full-fledged democracy.

White House sources described relations as warm, with Venezuela’s political transition still a central issue.

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says $NVDA’s AI ecosystem investment may be around $100B.

Its purchasing commitments to TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and others are helping bring chip manufacturing back to the U.S.

That push is creating jobs and even contributing to labor shortages.

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING: White House official is pushing back on reports of a U.S. diesel export ban, calling them “fake news.”

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MCDONALD’S CEO: HIGH INFLATION IS HERE TO STAY

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski says weak customer traffic and persistent inflation are becoming the new normal for the restaurant industry.

U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.8% last quarter, while restaurant traffic declined.

With beef, labor and construction costs elevated, McDonald’s plans to compete aggressively for market share, while remaining cautious about further menu price increases.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS REPORT THAT US IS CONSIDERING A DIESEL EXPORT BAN IS 'FAKE NEWS'

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*PRESIDENT TRUMP: WITKOFF AND KUSHNER MET WITH IRAN. LOTS OF GOOD THOUGHTS.

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING: Copper futures hit a “record high” and are now up another 22% this year.

[Garrett Golding @gjgolding]

7) From 2022: https://t.co/UvZhBVn77c

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Copper futures surge to their highest level on record, now up another +22% this year.

This puts copper prices up over +70% since January 2025.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP: US OFFICIAL MET WITH IRAN'S DELEGATION FOR THREE HOURS

*TRUMP: IRAN MEETING WENT VERY WELL, LASTED 3 HOURS

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Libya's Largest Oilfield Hit By New Armed Group Blockade https://t.co/MkAmpzIJVv

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
https://t.co/q52aNNmPg8

[Francesco Sassi @Frank_Stones]

🚨U.S. LNG carriers and oil tankers have been hacked in the Mediterranean Sea

Hybrid energy warfare has breached a dangerous new frontier.

Cyber threat actors are now targeting the digital nervous systems of global shipping.

Here is the breakdown: 👇🇺🇸🇮🇹🇪🇸🇪🇬🇮🇷🧵🛢️

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

🇸🇦🇮🇷 SOMETHING VERY INTERESTING IS HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Reuters reports Saudi Aramco loaded around 14 MILLION barrels of crude onto seven VLCCs at Gulf terminals on Sunday.

Satellite images reportedly show seven tankers around Ras Tanura.

Why is this interesting?

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline was attacked and shut down.

That pipeline exists specifically to allow Saudi crude to bypass Hormuz and reach the Red Sea.

So what happened next?

Saudi dramatically increased crude exports THROUGH Hormuz.

And Reuters reports Aramco has sold around 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for September and October with cargoes intended for ship to ship transfers at Sohar.

🇴🇲 Oman.

So the emerging route looks like:

🇸🇦 Ras Tanura
Strait of Hormuz
🇴🇲 Sohar
🇨🇳🇰🇷🇮🇳🇯🇵 Asian buyers

Now it gets interesting.

🇮🇷 Iran has been restricting shipping through Hormuz.

🇮🇷🇴🇲 Iran and Oman have simultaneously been negotiating a temporary navigation corridor, mine clearance, information sharing, traffic management and eventually a longer term framework for the Strait.

And now millions of barrels of Saudi crude are moving through Hormuz towards Oman.

I have NOT found evidence yet that Iran gave Saudi Arabia permission or that these tankers are part of an Iran Saudi agreement.

That distinction matters.

But the question now becomes unavoidable.

If Iran controls the threat environment around Hormuz, Oman is negotiating the navigation architecture and Saudi is dramatically increasing crude movements through the Strait, exactly how are these tankers being deconflicted?

Who is guaranteeing passage?

🇮🇷 Iran?

🇴🇲 Oman?

🇺🇸 The US?

Or some combination negotiated behind the scenes?

This is what I’m watching.

Because if evidence emerges that Iran is knowingly facilitating Saudi crude passage while Oman acts as the intermediary and transshipment node, that would be much more significant than seven tankers.

It would be another piece of the regional architecture I believe is emerging as the Forever War winds down.

Don’t follow the rhetoric.

Follow the oil.

Let’s see.

[Jim Liu @jiahanjimliu]

Initiated Starter Position: $INTC CPU Demand Growth

Having outline the reasons I see in CPU demand growth in quoted post below. I am initiating a position in INTC. There are other great CPU plays like ARM and AMD but I am choosing Intel for a few reasons:
1. ARM, AMD, Nvidia Vera CPUs, Amazon Graviton CPUs, Apple CPUs all share TSMC leading node wafer lines. It's a bottleneck. Intel CPUs have Intel Fab. Live or die on Intel Fab yield but success has not been priced in and it's looking good. Successful Intel Fab yields will open growth beyond CPU demand as leading node wafer production are a bottleneck.
2. Intel has not seen as much growth as AMD yet and has less priced in. It's got the world's second best fabs and is valuation attractive compared to TSMC if it's leading nodes get good yield.
3. Intel's is in a turnaround from a bean counting marketing company to having real engineering culture.
4. Intel is essential to America as it's the only leading Fab company America has that's within short proximity of China. America economy is totally dependent on tech and thus chips.
5. Intel actually has some of the best tech in terms of know-how and patterns. It's just had too many bad hires that mis-executes. It's previous VP of Fabs was an DEI. Big turnaround potential in it's yields.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by ~400,000 barrels last week, to 284.6 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982.

This marks the 26th consecutive weekly decline, putting inventories down more than -131 million barrels from their high.

The drawdown comes 22 days after President Trump said he would be using Venezuelan oil to begin refilling US reserves.

America's oil reserves are running extremely low.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Despite very heavy U.S. military surveillance and escorts in the Strait of Hormuz — including multiple Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers, KC-46A Pegasus tankers and an MQ-4C Triton — Iran has now directly struck two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, per UKMTO.

The second vessel, an LPG tanker attempting to exit the Strait, was hit by debris from unknown projectiles, according to UKMTO. Earlier, another tanker transiting Hormuz was struck, with two crew members reportedly suffering injuries.

Two commercial vessels hit in a single day despite the heavy U.S. military presence surrounding the waterway.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US has proposed extending its trade deal with China by 6 months ahead of President Xi's visit to the US, per NYT.

Officials are also discussing setting up dialogue on AI and promoting trade in "non-sensitive goods" like energy and consumer products between the US and China.

China is reportedly pushing for an extension of the trade deal for even longer than 6 months.

US markets rise to a new high of day on the news.