Lillith the Creative

I post Youtube videos, political forecasts, and fanfiction, if you're interested.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Whoops! I did the math wrong. The simplification is actually 1 in 18, so I'd say Dems actually have around 4% odds.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

By my count, the only house races that could truly still go either way are: #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #NY22, and #OR06.

Democrats need to win 8 of these 10 to keep the house. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Treating each of these as an uncorrelated tossup (which is a serious oversimplification), Democrats would have about a 1 in 6 shot. My ballpark is that it's actually somewhere around 1 in 10.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

And the award for least effective gerrymander goes to Kansas. All those court battles and Sharice Davids still won by 12 points.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

California, you've lost your swing district priviledges.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

I won't be making predictions or live calls for election day tonight. There are just too many race to cover.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Primary calls:

Dem:

#RIGov Dan McKee (inc)

GOP:

#NHSen Don Bolduc
#NH01 Karoline Leavitt
#NH02 Robert Burns

With that, the primaries of 2022 are complete.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Will update on remaining races tomorrow.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RISOS Gregg Amore wins Dem nomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RILtGov Sabina Matos wins Dem nomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RI02 Seth Magaziner wins Dem nomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RILtGov Aaron Guckian wins GOP nomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RIGov Ashley Kalus wins GOP nomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

@MarkHertling @AdamKinzinger @paulkrugman @tedcruz These days, anyone who has an IQ with more than one digit is considered "woke."

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#NHGov Chris Sununu (R) wins renomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

The final poll closing of the 2022 primaries just happened.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#NHSen Maggie Hassan (D) wins renomination.

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#RISOS

Dem: Lean Gregg Amore
GOP: Pat Cortessa unopposed

#RI01 (Biden+29)

Dem: David Cicilline (inc) unopposed
GOP: Allen Waters unopposed

#RI02 (Biden+14)

Dem: Lean Seth Magaziner
GOP: Allan Fung unopposed

(2/2)

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Race ratings for Rhode Island's primary:

#RIGov

Dem: Lean Nellia Gorbea (against inc)
GOP: Safe Ashley Kalus

#RILtGov

Dem: Likely Sabrina Matos
GOP: Likely Aaron Guckian

#RIAttyGen

Dem: Peter Neronha (inc) unopposed
GOP: Chris Calenda unopposed

(1/2)

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

#NH01 (Biden+6)

Dem: Chris Pappas (inc) unopposed
GOP: No clear frontrunner

#NH02 (Biden+9)

Dem: Annie Kuster (inc) unopposed
GOP: Lean George Hansel

(2/2)

[Lillith the Creative @LillithPlays]

Race ratings for New Hampshire's primary:

#NHSen

Dem: Safe Maggie Hassan (inc)
GOP: Lean Don Bolduc

#NHGov

Dem: Tom Sherman unopposed
GOP: Safe Chris Sununu (inc)

(1/2)