Lindsay Davies-White

Founder/CEO, Pelorus Research Corporation | Macro PM | Aspiring Dilettante

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

Positively shocking, who could've predicted this?

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

Sure they did...

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

Worth noting that the WTI front-month dropped less than 3% on this news. Market participants appear to finally be waking up.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

BREAKING: New reporting indicates that President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and access to frozen funds IF Iran makes concessions on their nuclear file…

Got it. So no deal imminent then.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

@JoshYoung @staunovo The best part is the level of arrogance and smugness with which they respond to their own detractors, despite them having been proved consistently wrong throughout this entire conflict.

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

It's 2028. The 10-year yield sits at 10%, oil is trading at $200, and sources say the US and Iran are just hours from sealing a deal.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

And after this RTRS headline citing unnamed sources, oil has dropped but is still green on the session. The TACO headlines appear to have severely lost their lustre.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US AND IRAN DISCUSS PHASED DEAL TO REOPEN HORMUZ AND END US BLOCKADE

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

So we have held basically the same (macro) thesis throughout this ordeal, with the main difference being that I express the thesis through derivatives rather than equities, and I think this is a classic example of why because i was up more than 15% by the time futuresarkets closed. This isn't to say that one trading strategy is better with respect to the overall long run rate of compounding, but when I have a theme I'm looking at, I look for the purest expressions of that thesis. Now of course, a big reason why I don't use equities as a proxy for my macro views is because I'm not a stock picker and I don't know the first thing about valuing companies, but I have always felt that using equities as an expression for a macro theme introduces tail risk exogenous from the theme on which you're trading. Now of course there have been multiple times where you've made more money than I have because of the stock picks but my main interest is in being proven right and I would rather loseiney because I was wrong about the thesis than because of something else (now, of course, sometimes I will still lose even when my thesis is correct such as when I bought JPU calls betting that the Japanese MoF would propr up JPY due to Hormuz induced depreciation, which I was right about but I picked a strike too high. That is a loss I'm fine with the loss was induced purely from a mistake on my part)

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

@BrettErickson28 As predicted, nothing has changed in the Iranian position.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

I vehemently eschew any association of something with being working class as having a negative connotation. I will sometimes wear black shirts in casual settings (only in the evenings) where I know I look good, especially with how pale my complexion is. But, despite having what most people would consider being a very prestigious job, I know where I come from and it's the working class. And I take great exception to the association of any type of clothing with the working class as a negative. Wealth is no guarantee if class, and to categorically dismiss any piece of menswear as being working class is to foment the kind of class warfare rhetoric that is becoming increasingly common in our society and I will not stand for it.

[Tommy Santos @tommysantos14]

BREAKING NEWS: I am pleased to announce I just secured an amazing deal with my mortgage company which grants me full and total control over my house, in exchange for no more money than it cost me last month.

This deal is truly revolutionary! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

@Jenniferisms is once again the only journalist in the room asking actually good questions.

[Jennifer Schonberger @Jenniferisms]

Fed Chairman Warsh tells me that the labor market and economy don’t have to be compromised for inflation to come back down

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

The cost of energy affects every aspect of prices. The Fed's own preferred measure of inflation, PCE, according to the most recent figures, is a mere 5 bps below the current lower bound of 3.75%. The byproducts of crude and gas processing go into everything from fertilizer for our crops (ex-Soy, obviously, but considering how little farmer's shifted their planting from corn to soy this year, coupled with soy still needing phosphate, which needs sulfur, I don't see this putting downwards pressure in any meaningful degree) to the refinement of the essential base metals that go into the production of this AI capex boom over which the residents of the ivory tower have been salivating.

To both the Fed and the blind plan-trusters who, despite their protestations, have no conception of tail risk, the core currently looks clean. It will not stay clean. Let us also not forget, that during the '70s, what I believe to be a close analogue to what we're living in now, Arthur Burns raised interest rates multiple times and gave many hawkish speeches but inflation spiraled out of control anyway.

Sound familiar?

[MONETARY MAYHEM @MONETARY_MAYHEM]

Live footage of Scott Bessent selling T bills and buying back treasuries

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

Futures markets have now been open for almost 10 minutes and, much to my surprise, there's not a TACO in sight. Should be very interesting to see what happens this week.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

There are rumblings about people anticipating a mother of all TACOs before the Sunday open. I think the probability is high and am hedging accordingly. If there is an announcement made of some kind of interim agreement made which Iran agrees to, it's important to not take that at face value. The work of Political Scientist @notEricMin proved instrumental for me navigating the MoU and is what gave me the conviction to hold my bullish outlook through June.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

@HealthRanger Kit doesn't win wars, warfighters do.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

@pollenatrix 20 years after he retired and he makes the best speech of his career, with nothing to gain other than love of his country. A true statesman, if ever there was one.

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

This is what most people don't understand. You don't become successful in capital markets because you want to become rich, that's why The Street is littered with corpses shaped like Leopold Aschenbrenner. You succeed in capital markets because you want to win; the money is merely a means of keeping score.

[Gavin (humanist/acc) @GavMcCracken]

Since I got COVID, I had to quit CounterStrike bc muscles in my eyes stopped working 100%.

Now, the most competitive evolutionary system ever created, where only individual skill matters, is my outlet. I am here for the gold medal & im already shaking up the status quo with new ideas & perspectives.

Other people can casually invest. I am aiming for maximum returns in short periods of time to bootstrap my future tech company.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

While many people are trying to wave away the strikes on the Saudi’s East West Pipeline under the pretenses that “it can be repaired”, the overall impact of this is far more consequential.

As I discussed in @TheHill today, you can’t view the East-West going down in isolation. Alone… survivable. But in tandem with all the other challenges facing the global energy markets? Far more dangerous.

But most critical of all is that this strike was reportedly carried out by the Iraqi’s. If they are striking CROWN JEWEL infrastructure? It’s abundantly clear that all energy infrastructure is just a matter of will. The whole Middle East can go offline realllll quick if Iran so chooses.

As I told The Hill:

Erickson said the shutdown of the pipeline by itself is not a "huge deal" on energy markets, as the Saudis can repair it, but the shutdown is not happening "in isolation."

"It's in tandem with the Bab el-Mandeb, the Strait of Hormuz and 2 billion barrels of oil already lost and escalating tension in the region," Erickson said.

"So, in isolation, maybe survivable, obviously, but it's in the more complete picture that becomes really concerning and it also just shows that while they can repair it, the infrastructure can be hit again and again and again," he added.

"We just don't have a solution to protect critical energy infrastructure."

https://t.co/u8kyn0I2Vf

[Lindsay Davies-White @LindsayDWhite]

There are rumblings about people anticipating a mother of all TACOs before the Sunday open. I think the probability is high and am hedging accordingly. If there is an announcement made of some kind of interim agreement made which Iran agrees to, it's important to not take that at face value. The work of Political Scientist @notEricMin proved instrumental for me navigating the MoU and is what gave me the conviction to hold my bullish outlook through June.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Save us Barak Ravid, you’re our only hope!