⚖️ 6’6” with an 80” reach vs. Hines at 6’2” with a 74” reach.
⏳ Yes, RJ took this on short notice but Hines is coming off a 1-year layoff after a PED suspension.
🎯 Taking the dog. RJ 🔨 Harris ML.
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⚾️ Framber Valdez/ Mariners Walk Parlay (-125) | 1 Unit
✅Mariners Over 2.5 Walks
✅ Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks
📉 Valdez has started moving away from his sinker—his only pitch that consistently fills the zone—and has increased his curveball usage over his last two starts. The result? His Zone% has dropped to 38.1% & 45.8%, creating more walk opportunities.
📊 Seattle is a perfect matchup:
▪️ 8.7% BB% vs LHP (12th-highest in MLB)
▪️ 9.9% BB% at home since the All-Star break
▪️ Valdez has walked 5, 3, 4, and 1 over his last four starts.
Love the value on both legs cashing.
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⚾️ Cristian Scott Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-151) | 1 Unit
📉 Scott owns a solid 2.99 ERA, but the underlying metrics tell a different story:
▪️ 3.74 xERA
▪️ Advanced metrics suggest this line is too low.
🔥 Cleveland’s lineup is loaded with lefties who crush his primary pitches:
▪️ .337 xBA over 116 PA vs RHP fastballs/cutters
▪️ Just a 15.5% K Rate
💥 Scott has allowed 2+ ER in 15 of his last 23 starts (65%) when throwing 65+ pitches, including 8 of 13 road starts.
Love Cleveland to get to him early.
📈 We Move Lines
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😂 Official Fade @Bookitwithtrent play.
⚾️Cubs Over 4.5 Team Total -130 1 unit
Yes, he won on his birthday last year… but I’m fading him anyway.
📉 Eric Lauer (2026):
• 4.83 ERA / 4.97 xERA
• .341 xwOBA allowed
• .473 xSLG allowed
• Opponents hitting .254 against him
🔥 Cubs offense is rolling:
• Dodgers have lost 5 straight
• Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 7 of their last 11 games
• Recent games with .322, .296 & .240 xBA
• Up to a .441 xwOBA in one of their recent hot stretches
Chicago is swinging it, Lauer has been hittable, and I like the Cubs to put up 5+ runs. 💰
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⚾️ Phillies Team Hits Over 8.5 (-140) | 1 Unit
🔥 Philly’s offense is rolling:
▪️ 11 hits last night
▪️ .362 xBA
▪️ .377 xwOBA
▪️ 43.3% Hard-Hit Rate
📉 Jake Irvin is a fade:
▪️ 89.9 STF+
▪️ .359 xwOBA allowed
▪️ 7.91 ERA in 4 career starts @ PHI
▪️ 27 hits allowed in just 19.1 IP
💥 Then you get one of baseball’s worst bullpens behind him. Philly is making elite contact right now, and Irvin has consistently been hit hard in this park. Love the Phillies to finish with 9+ hits.
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⚾️ Christian Javier Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-153) | 1 Unit
🔥 Javier’s last 3 starts:
▪️ 18.7% SwStr%
▪️ .222 xBA allowed
📉 Toronto managed just 1 run yesterday with a .181 xBA and 30.3% K rate. They’ve also scored 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1 runs in their last 7 games in Houston.
⏱️ Houston continues to manage Javier’s workload (74/82/60 pitches over his last 3), making 3+ ER before exiting a tough ask.
📈 We Move Lines.
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