William

poker player / app developer / strategy youtube ,

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@steveodwyer @Sdavies22 glad it (very much) worked out for you!

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@kwansfull I never got the "recs dont like re-entry" argument cause at my room I see tons of recs fire tons of bullets, esp the whales. And if you have a job and need to book travel or time off, you dont want one cooler on level 1 to waste that, so re-entry good for those recs too.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@Barry_Carter Missing the arrow where you rebuy after busting first level, then stone bubble

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@Barry_Carter When I first started playing live (from online background) would just have shaky hands in ANY big pots. Got mocked often and people would show big folds, so just started always starting a session with a big bluff to get the nerves out of me and the hero fold out of them.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@kwansfull Mostly inside baseball with props in LA mixed games bouncing between Commerce/Bike/Hustler that Im privy to. 'Prop players' being a thing is a hint. Also places like Australia and Canada that have absurdly high rake and, I believe as a result, a much smaller poker ecosystem.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@kwansfull Also we can look at it "reductio ad absurdum" - by this logic, the optimal tournament structure would be winner take all! Now, if WSOP ran a $1500 winner-take-all tournament, everyone would think its dumb and nobody would play it. So clearly there are many complex factors.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

Good arguments and I intuitively know this but I got some counter argument. First, that you still need an ecosystem, and top heavy can kill it. Same reason that rooms that chase away pros kill games while casinos that pay props keep games, in theory, you need recs not pros, in practice, pros provide 'liquidity'. And if you suck too much money out and give to much $ to one person people, will want to play...but wont have money. And every casino knows you want to give players big wins sometimes to keep them coming back. If someone final tables and gets crumbs they wont return. Besides pros theres also recs who sometimes win and come back, theres not endless stream of new blood, so you gotta give some real wins to everyone if you want to RETAIN players. Every business knows customer retention can be even more important than acquisition. Btw, Milly Maker, Monster Stack are WEEKEND bracelet events with 60 min levels for $1500 (prob best value in entire tournament world) so far more going for them than just 1st place.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

My last couple years have been a mix of pro gambling, trading, indie SaaS dev, and creator work, all with HUGE variance. Recently, Ive been getting way more into diet and fitness and now see a big reason why high roller pros often into it - when your life is HUGELY random something with fairly deterministic outputs from effort you put in is very comforting in comparison.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

3 rules of success according to Doyle Brunson:

1. Keep going
2. Keep going
3. Keep going

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@frenchjraff @Barry_Carter same, its like how badly can you fuck it up? Pocket 7s? Lets gooooo

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@TheBradOwen Awesome transparency. Sorry it didnt go better but thats true for most people who simply arent as transparent. Sick you took a shot at PPC and that was massive brunt of the damage. Ty for yet another reminder even with six figs in cashes you can be stuck. GL GL next summer.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@VictoriaL_64 True except not really the "best thing that could have happened to poker", which would be the first woman winner. Look at how big Queens Gambit was for chess - and that was a fictional story! But Mizrachi is charismatic and second best.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

I ICM punted in a @wsop landmark satellite because I was tired and mistakenly believed "landmark=win chips". Spent next day looking into it, its actually VERY complex format because theres 3 end states (lets assume format is to 10x starting and you win):

1) Dead tournament where all prizes won with players remaining. Many players seemed to worry about this asking how. many landmarks left, but this is EXTREMELY unlikely

2) 1 prize left with not enough chips in play to win a landmark. This will be chipEV since you must win it all and is the. Most common in small fields

3) 2+ prizes left with not enough chips in play to win a landmark. Its now ICM cause you just need to survive, not win chips. This is most common in large fields.

Main thing to consider is how many landmark winners went over and removed more chips than just the 10x. Scenario 1 almost impossible because theres not enough chips in play, unless tons of players with absurdly short stacks at end.

Scenario 2 will likely happen in small fields because the overages wont accumulate enough, so youll have about 10 players left fighting for that 1 prize

Scenario 3 will likely happen in big fields where enough landmark winners exist to let the chip overages add up and remove too many chips while theres still plenty of prizes.

If 10x is the threshold, I believe the threshold from scenario 2 to scenario 3 is about 100 players.

And even without all this, theres still some variant of ICM in play because if you have 9x youd rather tangle with a 1x stack than a 9x stack because both can send you over the threshold, but only the latter can cripple your next shot.

Genuinely complex format!

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@jeremyausmus They asked on stream how he got the nickname, was hoped for an epic story and the answer was "Oh I just randomly picked the name on PokerStars back in the day"

[William @LivePokerTheory]

Made a video compilation of the top 5 biggest punts in WSOP Main Event History:

https://t.co/WWDDJfWG71

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@NormanChad @WSOP The problem with "holding bad actors accountable" is over and over again I see people who advocate for that , want to hold the people they dislike accountable while making excuses for their friends. Dozens of other players with sketchiness in past that nobody ever brings up.

[William @LivePokerTheory]

@DeadStarLegacy @PokerRob24 @WSOP @GGPoker I dont see a point in "just for fun" but I also agree with your latter point. Already plenty of incentive to win a bracelet (the money itself via top heavy prize pools, prestige+PoY points). "Poker economy" already hurt by top-heavy prize pools, dont need more.