LJ Sherman

[Atlanta Falcons @AtlantaFalcons]

Bijan giveaway!

Repost for a chance to win this signed @Bijan5Robinson football!

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@colecubelic It’s ridiculous.

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@RealDealFantasy My new hobby is looking at all the good scoring players I drafted Loveland over

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

Are you surprised no WR needy team has signed Cedric Tillman off Saints’ practice squad? Seems like he showed some potential. @MattHarmon_BYB

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@MarkDank And needs targets too. Loveland getting targeted less than TEs with fewer routes so far. Just a complete miss.

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@dannykanell I don’t think anyone can reasonably call Missouri and Ole Miss easy. FL, SC, and Tech have already pulled upsets this year too.

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@DhananiZain Assume this deflates Gesicki streaming too?

[Ryan Reynolds @RyanReynoldsNFL]

NFL Week 5 Preview

Here’s what I’m looking at on this slate

- Bears icon Mike Ditka passed away on Friday, adding yet another layer to this week’s already intriguing installment of Bears at Packers.

- The pressure is on Green Bay in this spot. They are reeling, they are down their two best defensive players, they have the worst offensive line they’ve had in recent memory, but they also have their starting quarterback in Jordan Love and despite their struggles, they are still a manageable 2-2.

- From Green Bay’s end, I would expect them to have a game plan more tailored to their current reality coming off a long week. Speedster duo Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are the team’s biggest matchup problem for opponents, but the Packers have been very pass heavy and it’s nearly impossible to effectively throw downfield without reliable pass protection. Even more so when you have no run game and opposing pass rushers can pin their ears back. So, I’m expecting Green Bay to try to get their running game going more here, while leaning into more manufactured touches and quicker route combinations in the passing game. If they have success in this sense, then I’d expect a few downfield shots to their speedsters.

- On the Bears end, I’d make Green Bay show they can consistently stop the run given Chicago’s current situation. Kyle Monangai is out with turf toe, so there should be a lot on D’Andre Swift’s plate with Roschon Johnson supplementing.

- I would not put this game in Tyson Bagent’s hands unless I absolutely have to, he was a few plays and a couple penalties away from having a nightmare game against the Jets last week.

- Speaking of, a second wrinkle in this game is Caleb Williams had a limited practice Friday and was listed as questionable as of Friday night. I would guess that was a test run for Week 6, perhaps Week 7, but interesting, nevertheless, especially given the opponent and the important of Ditka to the city of Chicago. I’d get it if Caleb was pushing to play, but I hope he isn’t rushed back.

- Seahawks vs. 49ers is the best matchup on Sunday.

- San Francisco has one of the better coaches in Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy has been better than most realize for several years. That said, I think public perception is flying a little high on the Niners, and a trip to Seattle is a tremendous test for Purdy and this offense, who were shut down until the 4thquarter against Denver last week.

- Seattle gave up 26 points to the 49ers over three games last season, including just 9 across their Week 18 tilt and Division Round matchup, both Seahawks victories.

- I mentioned this once recently; Bill Belichick would treat Jaxon Smith-Njigba like a punt gunner on gotta have it passing situations. He would not like JSN beat him in those spots and quite frankly, I’m not sure why no one is trying this. Fear of being different and wrong, I’d expect.

- From what I have seen, Sam Darnold is still a solid quarterback but Seattle’s offense is a step less without Klint Kubiak, and perhaps Kenneth Walker. If the 49ers win this game, I’d expect their defense to drive that outcome, like they did against Denver last week.

- The Jaguars vs. Eagles game in London has seen an enormous line movement from -2.5 to -7.5. I do not recall a line movement that large that wasn’t related to a quarterback injury. Given that, it would be Jaguars or pass for me, as the Eagles have so many injuries, a greatly reduced offensive line, and I have no hope that their offensive coaching staff will create any margin against what has been a very good Jaguars defense with a top 10 front.

- In truth, this looks like a potential implosion spot for Philadelphia’s offense, against a Jaguars team that is looking like a contender.

- If the Eagles have a shot in this game, their defense needs to play up and carry them. In particular, their underachieving front four needs to play their best game of the year against a middling Jaguars offensive line. Edge Jonathan Greenard, who has been banged up, could really give the Eagles’ a boost if he’s near full strength.

- The problem with that is Trevor Lawrence has become who everyone has thought he was going to be under Liam Coen.

- I sincerely hope Jayden Daniels is completely fine and not risking his future playing in this game. Given that, really high chance Washington goes out of their way to protect Daniels, which looks like run centric game plan, quick hitter passing game, Daniels only runs if he has a clear lane.

- One interesting aspect the Giants have going forward against Washington is New York has a very rangy linebacker group that should help them manage mobile quarterbacks like Daniels.

- If I’m Washington, I run at very talented, but 252 lbs edge Abdul Carter to both try and neutralize him on pass sets and because he can be moved in the run game.

- From what I’ve seen, the Giants should give Tyrone Tracy some significant run starting this week. Najee Harris is a professional running back, but he has limited juice and he fumbled last week. Cam Skattebo, as physical and as hard of a runner as there is, looks like his burst is already down. Mixing Tracy with Skattebo would give opposing defenses much different looks.

- Jameis Winston is a wild card. He’s a backup that is capable of throwing for 300 yards without it being an accident, but he’s also capable of losing a game entirely on his own. He had good games against the Lions and Packers last year, but he has not been very good in Jaxson Dart’s absence this season, though he did at least have some positive moments last week against Arizona.

- I am not a Tyler Shough guy, but I was open to being wrong after how well he played in Baltimore in Week 2. Despite that moment of doubt, I don’t think I’m wrong. Shough facing Brian Flores’ defense, while being without his left tackle, is a very messy situation. I’m very curious to see what Kellen Moore tries to do against Flores. Given that Moore was a college QB and he’s coming off a real rocky game in Atlanta, I’m expecting an uptick in screens and quick hitters.

- Minnesota is down the left side of their offensive line. While the Saints don’t have a high-end front to really take advantage of that, it’s still a huge limitation for Kyler Murray, who was fine against bottom of the barrel Miami but he’s been mediocre as a Viking so far.

- Starting today I’m going to begin openly wondering aloud if Brian Daboll is among the worst active play callers in the NFL. I thought he was bad in New York, he’s shown me nothing in Tennessee.

- The Texans pass rush has an advantage in this game, and they are coming off one of, if not their worst showing in years against Dallas last week, in an absolute must win game at 0-4.

- I have no confidence in Daboll and I’d be pretty surprised if Houston’s defense doesn’t bounce back in a significant way, but the Titans path to an upset is their own front taking over this game. CJ Stroud has played pretty well this season, but the Texans have a sub part offensive line and the one true strength of the Titans football program is their front, headlined by interior disruptor Jeffery Simmons.

- Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are currently both still questionable, but truth be told I think Joe Burrow’s Bengals can still win this game even if both play makers miss. First, I don’t think Burrow needs his elite play makers to have an efficient game on offense, against this bottom tier pass rush/ secondary combo.

- Cincinnati’s front four is also going to be a problem for Miami’s offensive line.

- I think the Jets beat the Browns in a game between two teams that are pretty similar roster wise. If anything, the Jets offensive line is ahead of Cleveland’s, where I’d say New York is a better landing spot for a new future at quarterback.

- The X factor here is Deshaun Watson, who is still not Houston level Watson, but he’s currently enjoying his best run since joining Cleveland. Todd Monken and the Brown’s young, talented skill group deserve a good amount of the credit for that, but I first noted that Watson played promisingly in Week 2 and that has been a thing for three games in a row.

- KC Concepcion could be a problem if Cleveland can get him in space against the Jets.

- Geno Smith is the poster child for the idea that sacks are a quarterback stat, because he takes some of the worst sacks you’ll ever seen. Mason Graham being out is one of the reasons I lean Jets, because New York can provide help on Jared Verse without much reservation.

- I’d put Klint Kubiak in the Dave Canales and Liam Coen cluster for coaches, which is a compliment. That also makes Kubiak vs. Mike Vrabel a really interesting coaching matchup.

- Kirk Cousins has played very well so far and Kubiak has elevated this offense. Specifically, I absolutely love how he’s leaning into Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer as the core of the passing offense (along with Ashton Jeanty). Good coaches use what they have instead of trying to fit square pegs into round holes. I’m really looking forward to seeing how Vrabel tries to handle Bowers.

- I’d cluster the Raiders pass rush with Buffalo’s, more of a mid-range pass rush (Buffalo’s is better but has a worse headliner), so I expect Drake Maye to be fine in this matchup.

- The Steelers are coming off a long week and a loss, to face a Colts team coming off a London game. Given Pittsburgh’s second half schedule, this is close to a must win.

- I imagine that Shane Steichen isn’t going to come out slinging it with Daniel Jones against this defense, especially not after last week where Jones was atrocious on foreign soil. I would think muddy, run centric game plan, try to keep this game close and ugly for as long as possible is the Colts best path. If the Colts’ defense fails them against a flawed Steelers offense, Indianapolis could be in trouble here.

- Monster tight end Darnell Washington saw some interesting usage against Cleveland last week. To Mike McCarthy’s credit, which is a phrase that was not easy for me to say, it seems like he and his staff have recognized that Washington is a pretty unique player in the league and maybe they should do more with him. Kudos to them, I hope to see it continue.

- The Chargers offensive line was already bad in the interior, now they are down both of their offensive tackles, who are two of the four best players on the whole team. This Chargers offensive line this week is among the worst I’ve ever seen assembled, and they are facing a quality Broncos front.

- If there is one positive for the Chargers offense, it’s that both of Denver’s perimeter corners are out.

- Sean Payton is taking over play calling duties, so I’d expect this game to go through the run game behind this offensive line, with Jaylen Waddle seeing a spike in usage, including some manufactured touches.

- On a personal level, I’ve always thought Sean Payton was a very good play caller that sets things up and leans into what his team has personnel wise. I saw nothing over the last four weeks that made me think Davis Webb should be running the offense instead of Payton.

- The Cardinals are down their left tackle and Jacoby Brissett was bad in New York last week, and I mean bad. If that version Brissett is close to what we see on Sunday, behind what is now a significantly less reliable offensive line with Paris Johnson out against a top 10ish Lions pass rush, I could see Detroit winning this game with some distance.

- If Brissett plays well, which we’ve seen at times in Arizona over the last 12 months, this game will shoot out as expected.

- If Marvin Harrison Jr. still doesn’t do much against this Lions’ injury depleted secondary, it’s at least time for a change of scenery.

- The truth of the Atlanta Falcons is somewhere in the middle of their first two, brutal games without Michael Penix, and their last two blowout victories with Penix. They get lucky in drawing the Ravens with Lamar Jackson sidelined, which has become a pretty frequent occurrence for Baltimore.

- Tyler Huntley isn’t a bad backup quarterback. I envision the Ravens trying to ride Derrick Henry with Zay Flowers seeing pretty concentrated volume.

- No Trey Hendrickson is a pretty big blow to Baltimore, as they’ll likely need to bring heat to pressure Penix.

- I could envision the Ravens containing Bijan Robinson, same with Drake London, as Jessie Minter was able to keep both players in relative check with a worse defensive roster the last time he faced Atlanta (although Kirk Cousins was the Falcons QB in that matchup).

- It would not shock me if Baltimore forced a few turnover Sunday night.

- Rams vs. Bills is among the best possible matchups the NFL has to offer in 2026. LA has a better roster than Buffalo, even with Myles Garrett sidelined. They also have the better coach, making this a bit of a Josh Allen vs. the world kind of matchup.

- Both teams are top 10 in both trenches.

- Puka Nacua and Davante Adams against the Bills secondary looks like a pretty significant advantage for the Rams. I’d imagine Puka in particular is a very unique cover for cornerbacks that haven’t faced him. Not just because of his physicality, but because of when Matthew Stafford will give him targets (as soon as he breaks, when he’s covered, throws to spots). It’s a pretty unique dynamic to deal with.

- The last time Nacua faced Buffalo he went 12-162-1.

I have watched every NFL game for roughly a decade. I have done this for the purpose of sports speculation.

I run a reality-based program here.

Engagement is how I reach new users. So as long as engagement remains strong (comments/ shares) I’ll continue pumping this and similarly detailed insights out every week.

[Atlanta Falcons @AtlantaFalcons]

JB3 giveaway 🔥

Repost for a chance to win a signed @jlbiii3 mini helmet!

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@JakobSanderson Streaming Ds in a league with very few options, and I chose these guys. Should have picked the Panthers on bye.

[UGA Spike Squad @UGASPIKESQUAD]

Who has the edge Saturday night if it rains all night and is just a sloppy grind it out type of game? My intuition tells me the Dawgs have the edge but Bama D-line and run game are improved from last year

[Pittsburgh Steelers @steelers]

RP for your chance to win this signed Jaylen Warren football‼️

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@MarkDank Sure wishing I had stuck with my original draft plan of WR in the 4th.

[Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears]

🚨 Victory Monday giveaway 🚨

Repost for the chance to win a @kylemonangai signed helmet

[Radi Nabulsi @RadiNabulsi]

24 is too many

[Atlanta Falcons @AtlantaFalcons]

MP9 giveaway ‼️

Repost for a chance to win a signed @themikepenix football!

[LJ Sherman @LJ_Sherman]

@Ihartitz You’re not taking the temperature. You’re setting the temperature.

[Todd Fuhrman @ToddFuhrman]

News flash: expanding the playoff won’t help instead it will turn CFB into CBB where people can tune in for the final month rather than every single Saturday

[Angie Machado @AngieMachado1]

Crazy what happens when rosters flip every year and re-alignment has taken away regionality. College football was great with regional rivalries and rosters that fans got to know and watch develop.

[Adam Lichtenstein @ABLichtenstein]

People say the transfer portal and paying players is gonna permanently harm college football, but what will actually do it is creating matchups no one cares about via conference realignment, making the regular season near-worthless and making the postseason less interesting.

I’ve never seen a league work so hard to make itself less compelling and interesting.