Lower League Analyst

Championship to National League, every fixture scored out of 10 on 8 proven data factors. 86% success rate to date. Working shown, misses included.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

There is nothing on our picks this month, and that is deliberate.

We don't score a fixture until both clubs have played 4 league games. Before that the only factor with real evidence behind it is head-to-head, and a score built on one factor looks identical to a score built on eight. So we don't publish it.

First National League board: 31 August. Championship and League Two: 5 September. League One: 10 September.

When our model was released on the 14th of April, out of 22 picks, we got 19 right - an 86% success rate.

The 3 that missed sit on the same page as the 19, with the working that got them wrong.

Follow if you want to watch a model that refuses to guess, and find out in public whether that is worth anything.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

Edition one of the weekly roundup, and why a blank card is a normal week's work: https://t.co/TyD6ZI9tZ2

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

Since 14 April 2026 our released record reads 19 from 22. Every one of them cleared 7.0 out of 10 on the conviction model before kick-off. Nothing below that line has ever been published.

The bar is why the number holds up. It is also why the board is empty today, and will still be empty on Friday when the EFL starts.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

Which stats actually move a result in these divisions, and which only look like they do: https://t.co/zpAkrEOZn2

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

Head-to-head record is one of eight factors inside our conviction score, and one of the quietest. It carries a weight of 0.08. That is a weighting, not a score.

On 8 August that one factor was carrying the entire number on ten of the twelve National League games, because nothing else had filled in yet. None reached the release line of 7.0, measured on our 10-point conviction scale, so nothing went on the board.

Same factor. Nothing like the same job.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@DAZN_NationalLg 12,382 more people through the gates than the opening weekend last year, across three divisions. That is the number the pyramid never gets credit for, and it arrived before anyone had a table to look at.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@OptaAnalyst Opta have West Ham first across 10,000 simulations. Our own Championship preview carries no number against them at all, because the model has never scored a West Ham fixture. The clubs that did carry one are in here.
https://t.co/IBJqkcNFxP

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@WBA orient get him until May rather than January, which is the difference between a loan and an audition

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@SouthamptonFC @pandocruises A nickname, a shirt photo and a meet-the-fans clip inside half an hour 👀 somebody in that press office is having a good morning

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@OfficialBWFC Hardie in on a season-long loan, four days before League One starts. A squad still taking players in this week will not be the same squad by the end of August. Worth remembering when the first tables go up.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@Carabao_Cup 92nd minute in a derby is the version of this competition everyone forgets about until it happens to them.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@Coventry_City @Argyle Argyle at home, week commencing the 24th. Coventry get a side that has just won a derby in stoppage time. The division gap makes that tie look more one-sided than it is.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@Argyle Hartridge and Pepple both late, and a derby settled in the stretch of the game where nobody has much control left. First round nights are worth more to a squad than the result suggests

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@officialcufc Streaming an away day back into your own ground is a National League answer to a National League problem. Carlisle to Yeovil and back inside a Saturday is not something most supporters can do.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@tamworthfc Two goals and he sounds more relieved than pleased. Usually the sign of someone who has been waiting a while for a day like that

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@Pompey Goalkeeper on a new two-year deal in the middle of August is quieter business than a signing and usually more useful. It is the one position where you only notice a settled situation after it stops being settled.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@Pompey the second one always lands about four minutes after you have given up refreshing

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@HornchurchFC Norwich City PL2 and Woking on the same home list is one of the odder and better things about this part of the pyramid. Two completely different kinds of afternoon

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@bostonunited away tickets on sale the Monday before is about right for this level. Solihull is one of the kinder trips on Boston's list too

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@CAFCofficial Two league weekends will have been played by the time this tie comes round. Our model needs four from each club before it will score a fixture, so the first Championship read we publish lands in September rather than August.

[Lower League Analyst @LL_Analyst]

@WestHam South coast, week commencing the 24th. Both squads will still be moving between now and then, and a cup tie played inside a transfer window is a different question to one played in October.