Logicalbets by Sahil Saini

Markets, emotions & yoga 🧘
Surviving the markets with logical bets

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

This is not the sameeee room

[sekar wangi @sekarwangikuu]

the most romantic part of living alone

before after

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

SILVER: $115 IN JAN, $49 NOW

Hunt brothers 1980, the 2011 top, #silversqueeze 2021, the 2025-26 mania: every silver boom ended in a bust. Today it sits near the ~$50 zone that capped 1980 and 2011.

Educational only, not advice.
#Silver

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

FIIs POURED ₹84,000 CRORE INTO INDIA IN NOVEMBER
Foreign investors have bought for 10 straight sessions, per NSDL and NSE data.
This is the highest monthly inflow since December 2020.
It helped Nifty close the week at 25,144, up 0.46%, for a third weekly gain.

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

GOLD: $35 IN 1971, $3,884 TODAY

Since Aug 1971 US CPI is up 8.3x, gold 111x. In 2008 the S&P fell 56.8% while gold rose 24.5%. But it's 26.9% below its Jan 2026 peak: a long-term shield, not a daily one.

Educational only, not advice.
#Gold

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

INFLATION AT 6.09% SNAPS NIFTY'S 3-DAY RALLY

Nifty −155 to 25,144. October CPI hit a 2-year high, above RBI's 6% limit. Rate-sensitive sectors fell most: Realty −1.39%, Auto −1.07%, Bank Nifty −0.79%. FIIs still bought ₹7,831 cr Thursday.

Not advice.
#Nifty #Inflation

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY MONTHLY EXPIRY MOVED TO 23 NOV

Tue 24 Nov is a market holiday for Guru Nanak Jayanti.
So NSE monthly F&O expiry moves to Monday 23 Nov.
The Nifty weekly expiry is still Tue 17 Nov, and the Sensex weekly is Thu 19 Nov.

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

FIIs BOUGHT ₹73,566 CR SO FAR IN NOVEMBER

Foreign investors put in ₹73,566 cr from 1 to 12 Nov, the best month since July 2025.
October saw ₹45,162 cr of selling.
Still, 2026 outflows are a record ₹3.75 lakh cr, so this is a sharp turn, not yet a full recovery.❤️‍🩹

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

INFLATION 6.09% KNOCKS NIFTY 222 LOWER

Open 25,210, low 25,078, now 25,174 (09:39). Fresh calls 25,200, fresh puts 25,100, put base 25,000. Bank Nifty −0.84%. VIX 16.40, realistic range ±260.

Data: NSE. Educational only, not advice.
#Nifty #StockMarket

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

VIX FELL 5% TO 16.61.

Nifty for Fri 13 Nov (17 Nov chain): call wall 25,500, put base 25,000, max pain 25,200. Realistic VIX range 25,035–25,564. PCR up to 0.85 from 0.77.

Data: NSE. Not advice. #Nifty

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

SENSEX EXPIRED 11 POINTS FROM MAX PAIN

Sensex closed 81,911 on expiry; max pain was 81,900. The 81,900 call ended at ₹11, its intrinsic value, and the 82,000 call at ₹0.05. Nifty +44 to 25,299, all 14 Bank Nifty stocks green.

Educational only, not advice.
#Nifty #Sensex

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY EXPIRY TUE 17 NOV, HOLIDAY 24 NOV
Nifty weekly expiry is Tue 17 Nov. Sensex expires again Thu 19 Nov.
— Monthly F&O expiry is Mon 23 Nov, and markets are shut Tue 24 Nov for Guru Nanak Jayanti.
India WPI inflation comes Mon 16 Nov at 12 PM.

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY BOUNCED 195 FROM THE LOW

Open 25,214, low 25,143, now 25,338 (09:34). Fresh puts 25,300, calls 25,350, call wall 26,000. Sensex expiry today; walls 85,000 / 80,000 from yday 3:48 PM BSE chain (live chain empty).

Data: NSE, BSE. Educational only, not advice.
#Nifty #Sensex

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY CLOSED 210 POINTS HIGHER AT 25,255.

Thu 12 Nov (17 Nov chain): call wall 25,500, put base 25,000, max pain 25,100. VIX 17.58 realistic range 24,975–25,535.
Sensex expires Thursday: max pain 81,500, OI 85,000 CE / 80,000 PE.

Data: NSE, BSE. Not advice. #Nifty #Sensex

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

SENSEX JUMPS 1,277 POINTS TO 8-MONTH HIGH
Nifty +340 at 25,385 around 11:20 AM, highest since 27 Feb.
FIIs have bought about ₹53,170 cr in November; Brent hit a 2-month low of $89.16 on Tuesday.
Nifty is up roughly 9–10% this month, on track for its best month since Nov 2020.

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY +342 AFTER THE HOLIDAY

GIFT Nifty had already priced it in on Tuesday. Nifty 25,386 at 09:38 IST, 47 of 50 stocks green. Fresh puts at 25,300, fresh calls at 25,400, call wall 26,000. Sensex +1,337 ahead of Thursday's expiry.

Data: NSE, BSE. Educational only, not advice.
#Nifty #Sensex

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

Which you can’t trade Error Code: 16419

[सौरभ  @saurabh_gunjal_]

If you are getting bored

Today is NSE crude oil expiry
Starting at 5.00PM

Just saying

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

NIFTY BOUNCED 206 POINTS OFF THE LOW.

For Wed 11 Nov (17 Nov chain): call wall 25,500, put base 25,000, max pain 24,800
VIX 17.36 realistic range 24,771–25,319
Sensex expires Thursday: max pain 80,500, biggest OI 85,000 CE / 77,000 PE

NSE, BSE data, 9 Nov close. Educational only, not advice. #Nifty #Sensex

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

CITI RAISES NIFTY TARGET TO 28,000
Nifty closed at 25,044.65 on Monday, its highest since 27 Feb. HSBC also upgraded India to overweight.
Citi's target implies about 12% upside from here. GIFT Nifty is near 25,257 ahead of Wednesday's reopening.
#Nifty

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

INDIA CPI THURSDAY: 5.9% EXPECTED VS 5.5%
October inflation lands on 12 Nov, close to the RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit.
A print near or above 6% would strengthen December rate-hike expectations.
US CPI is out tonight at 7 PM IST while Indian markets are shut.

[Logicalbets by Sahil Saini @Logicalbets]

93% OF F&O TRADERS LOST MONEY

SEBI's FY22–FY24 study: over 9 in 10 individual traders lost, about ₹2 lakh on average. We tested 3 Nifty option-buying setups on NSE data, 2024–2026, costs in.

Educational only, not advice.